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Matthew Kilburn

First Poll of 2012 Season Confirms Romney as Frontrunner

October 25th, 2008 | 5 Comments | Posted in Mitt Romney

We’re down to just a handful of days until American voters will pick between Barack Obama and John McCain for the position of our next President. But with an Obama landslide looking increasingly likely, many Republicans are already turning their focus toward 2012, and who will be selected to lead a Republican Revival.

A three-decade old rule in party says that the runner-up in a primary contest should be the nominee in the next open election. Reagan was second in ‘76 and won in ‘80, Bush was second in ‘80 and won in ‘88, Dole was second in ‘88 and won in ‘96, and McCain was second in ‘00 and won in ‘08. Note that Pat Buchananwas second in ‘96, but choose not to run in 2000. There are some who believed, or perhaps hoped, that 2008 would break that tradition and allow Sarah Palin to become the Republican nominee in four years, but that isn’t happening. A new Newsweek poll - likely the first of the 2012 season - puts Sarah Palin in third place, behind Mike Huckabee. At the front of the pack? None other than Gov. Mitt Romney, who is able to claim a 9% lead in a three-way race.

Newsweek 2012 Republican Presidential Nomination

Mitt Romney        35%
Mike Huckabee   26%
Sarah Palin          20%

A nine-point lead isn’t enough to let us kick back for the next three years, but its a good starting point. I’ll have more out later about this, and what the Republican Party needs to do over the next two years to win in 2012.

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