2008 Electoral College Prediction |
With just two days left until most Americans vote, we are getting in the final round of polling for individual states, and its time for predictions to be made. There are still a somewhat surprising number of undecideds, but I believe that things are stable enough for me to issue a final prediction, and that prediction is that Barack Obama will be elected President with at least 291 electoral votes, with an upper estimate of 311. That leaves John McCain with either 227 or 247 votes. I do not believe that Obama will win a massive, 350+ vote landslide as polls at one point showed he might, nor do I believe that John McCain will be able to recover the ground he has lost to be able to claim victory.
Here is what I believe the map will look like Wednesday morning:
Barack Obama should hold all of the 2004 Blue states, and pick up New Mexico, Iowa, Colorado, Virginia, and Nevada. Ohio remains a toss up, though, unlike past elections, I do not believe holding Ohio will be enough to save the Republican nominee.
Senate: Democrats advance to 56, but fall short of the needed 60. Lieberman may very well change his affiliation.
Tags: 2008 Election, Barack Obama, Electoral College, John McCain