comMITTed to Romney!

http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/01/14/giulianis-lead-shrinks-in-florida-poll-shows/

By: Michael Cooper

THE CAUCUS.BLOGS.NYTIMES.COM

NAPLES, Fla. — The campaign’s signs say “Florida is Rudy Country.’’ But despite Rudolph W. Giuliani’s heavy advertising effort here, and the fact that he has the state almost to himself while his rivals duke it out in colder climes, a poll released Monday shows that his lead in Florida has slipped, and the state is now very much up for grabs.
The poll, by Quinnipiac University, showed Senator John McCain, Rudolph W. Giuliani, Mitt Romney, and Mike Huckabee all within the margin of sampling error. And it found that even though Mr. Giuliani now has the airwaves here to himself, Mr. McCain has gained nine percentage points since the last Qunnipiac survey was taken, between Dec. 12 and Dec. 18, while Mr. Giuliani lost eight percentage points.

The poll, which has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 5 percentage points, showed Mr. McCain with the support of 22 percent of likely primary voters, Mr. Giuliani at 20 percent, and Mr. Huckabee and Mr. Romney with 19. The survey polled 419 likely Republican primary voters from Jan. 9 through Jan. 13.”

Is it just me, or is the MSM showing world class chutzpah in calling for Mitt Romney to withdraw from the race when a mega delegate state like Florida is this tight in the polls?

Speaking of “tight”, that word reminds me of a classic “Dan Ratherism” from a few years ago that I wanted to get out of storage and dust off to recycle it here. Dan might say that the polls in Florida are: “Screwed down tighter than rusted lug nuts on a ’56 Ford pickup truck.”

~~John Cronin~~

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McCain and Hillary share a “love-in” moment.

Sen. McCain Cannot Explain His Positions, And So He Launches Negative Personal Attacks:

• Sen. McCain Can’t Address Criticism Of His Tax And Immigration Policies Because He “Has No Good Response.” “Both responses by McCain have this in common — they fail entirely to address the substance of Romney’s criticism. The reason, of course, is that McCain has no good response. He did oppose tax cuts, support for which does lie at the essence of Reagan conservatism. Similarly, he did support comprehensive immigration reform and his line on that support now is a grudging acknowledgement that the American people (though not necessarily McCain) want border security first.” (Paul Mirengoff, “Romney’s Point,” Power Line Blog, Posted 12/27/07)
• Sen. McCain Complains That Discussing Policy Positions Is “Attacking.” SEN. JOHN MCCAIN: “If there’s any doubt that we’re doing well, it’s when Mitt Romney starts attacking.” (National Review Online, Posted 12/28/07)
• And Now, Sen. McCain Has Launched A Negative Personal Attack On Gov. Romney. “‘I begin the ad by indicating he’s an honorable man,’ Mr. Romney said. ‘I believe he is a good person. I make no attacks on his character, no attacks of a personal nature whatsoever. I’ve just seen the text of his ad. It’s obviously of a very different nature. It’s an attack ad. It attacks me personally. It’s nasty. It’s mean-spirited. Frankly, it tells you more about Senator McCain than it does about me that he’d run an ad like that.’” (Marc Santora, “McCain Ad: Right Back At Ya, Mitt,” The New York Times’ Caucus Blog, Posted 12/28/07)
  

Launching Negative Personal Attacks Is The McCain Way – As Seen In The 2000 Campaign:

• In 2000, Sen. McCain Ran An Attack Ad Comparing Then-Gov. Bush To Bill Clinton. SEN. MCCAIN: “I guess it was bound to happen. Governor Bush’s campaign is getting desperate, with a negative ad about me. The fact is, I’ll use the surplus money to fix Social Security, cut your taxes and pay down the debt. Governor Bush uses all of the surplus for tax cuts, with not one new penny for Social Security or the debt. His ad twists the truth like Clinton. We’re all pretty tired of that. As president, I’ll be conservative and always tell you the truth. No matter what.” (McCain 2000, Campaign Ad, 2/9/00)

To watch the 2000 campaign ad, click here:

• Gov. Romney: McCain’s Latest Attack Is Reminiscent Of The 2000 Campaign. “‘It’s reminiscent of what he did against George W. Bush in 2000, which as you recall, he accused President Bush of twisting the truth like Bill Clinton,’ he said. ‘Again, this is the kind of nasty, personal attack, which really doesn’t have a place in this process.’” (Marc Santora, “McCain Ad: Right Back At Ya, Mitt,” The New York Times’ Caucus Blog, Posted 12/28/07)

These, On The Other Hand, Are Substantive Facts – Not Negative Personal Attacks:

• FACT: In 2001, McCain Was One Of Only Two Republicans To Vote Against The $1.35 Trillion Bush Tax Cut. The bill lowered marginal rates, eliminated the marriage penalty, and doubled the child tax credit. (H.R. 1836, CQ Vote #170: Adopted 58-33: R 46-2; D 12-31; I 0-0, 5/26/01, McCain Voted Nay)
• FACT: In 2003, McCain Was One Of Only Three Republicans To Twice Vote Against The $350 Billion Bush Tax Cut. The comprehensive bill lowered taxes by $350 billion over 11 years – including increasing the child tax credit and eliminated the marriage penalty. (H.R. 2, CQ Vote #179: Passed 51-49: R 48-3; D 3-45; I 0-1, 5/15/03, McCain Voted Nay; H.R. 2, CQ Vote #196: Adopted 50-50: R 48-3; D 2-46; I 0-1, 5/23/03, McCain Voted Nay)
• FACT: In 2002, McCain Was One Of Only Two Republicans To Twice Vote Against Permanent Repeal Of The Death Tax. (S. 1731, CQ Vote #28: Adopted 56-42: R 45-2; D 11-39; I 0-1, 2/13/02, McCain Voted Nay, H.R. 8, CQ Vote #151: Motion Rejected 54-44: R 45-2; D 9-41; I 0-1, 6/12/02, McCain Voted Nay)
• FACT: McCain Sponsored An Immigration Plan To Allow 11 Million Illegals To Remain In The U.S. “The McCain plan — which is being put forward in the U.S. House by Arizona GOP Congressmen Jeff Flake and Jim Kolbe — allows the 11 million illegal immigrants already in the U.S. to stay in the country if they apply for legal status and pay a $2,000 fine.” (Mike Sunnucks, “Napolitano, Hayworth Criticize Bush On Illegal Immigration,”The Phoenix Business Journal, 2/1/06)

• Rep. Steve King (R-IA) Called The McCain-Kennedy Immigration Bill “Amnesty.” “[McCain] has also teamed up with Sen. Edward M. Kennedy (Mass.), a liberal Democrat, on an immigration bill that many conservatives despise. ‘It would have legalized and provided a path for citizenship, which is amnesty, for 66.1 million people,’ said Rep. Steve King (R-Iowa), who has called Kennedy and McCain ‘amnesty mercenaries.’” (Michael D. Shear, “McCain Fighting To Recapture Maverick Spirit Of 2000 Bid,” The Washington Post, 3/15/07)
• Manchester Union Leader Editorial: McCain-Kennedy Proposal “Would Encourage Border Jumping.” “Sens. John McCain and Ted Kennedy have a bill that, surprise, includes a generous guest worker program that would encourage border jumping. Illegals who register would have to pay a fine and taxes, but they would get to stay here and apply for permanent residency. That sure beats waiting at the border and hoping to be let in.” (Editorial, “Turnstile Security,” The [Manchester, NH] Union Leader, 3/27/06)

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There are so many breaking headlines that it’s hard to know where to start.

Let’s just wade into the most recent stuff.

Mitt is going to deliver “The Speech.” I was just on the NYT Caucus blog and while there were some thoughtful responses, (Jeff and Vic’s among them) there were also the usual diatribes and mindless rehashing of Democratic talking points.

It seems that some of our fellow citizens are scared out of their wits that Mitt Romney is going to usher in a dark age of religious oppression if he is elected president. I made the following suggestion to them.

If you are afraid that a Mitt Romney presidency will somehow establish a state sponsored religion in America, ask yourself the following questions.

When John Kennedy was elected the first Catholic president in this country’s history, was he able to establish a Catholic theocracy? Did he even try?

When Harry Reid was elected Senate Majority Leader, did he try to establish an LDS theocracy?

When Mitt Romney was elected Gov. of Massachusetts, did he try to turn MA. into an LDS theocracy?

If anyone, of any denomination, tried this what do you think the publics’ reaction would be?

What would happen to that President’s approval rating?

How would Congress react?

Do you think any cases would make their way to the Supreme Court, and if so, how do you think the justices might vote?

Would the ACLU roll out the red carpet and welcome these wholesome changes?

The other headline I wanted to comment on is Tax-Hike Mike’s surge in the polls and the timing of “The Speech.” Couldn’t be better. My sense is that Huckabee has peeked in Iowa and the Romney speech this Thursday will dominate the news cycle through out this week, turning the spotlight from MH and shining it on MR. I said months ago that I thought the speech should be postponed until it became clear that it was necessary to make it, if that time ever came. That time is now here and with the polls showing Huckabee up by several points in Iowa, this lowers expectations just enough, to take away any last minute surges by MH (if he were still in second place) that would give the MSM the headlines they were hoping for.

In the scenario that I anticipate, MH’s surge gives the MSM the drama that they have been looking for, but I expect his numbers to drop from this point going forward as “The Speech” shifts the media’s and the voter’s attention back to Romney. Based on the campaign’s competency that we have all observed over the course of this year, I would expect Romney to hit a home run with a very well-crafted speech and the resultant “buzz” will generate interest from those voters who are only vaguely aware of the religious question. If Huckabee keeps attacking Mitt, especially if MR’s speech is well received, the backlash against the man from Hope will be strong enough to end his 15 minutes of fame, as he places second in Iowa and gets his plow cleaned in New Hampshire. Without a national team, his only usefulness to the Giuliani campaign will be over.

Then he can write a book about his experiences on the campaign trail and start making appearances at Barnes & Noble stores around the country.

~~John Cronin~~

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This narrative from—–> The Caucus The New York Times Politics Blog chronicles a reporter’s perspective on families and the Romney campaign.

The part that really stood out for me in the piece is the quote in the title of this message, the following is the exact statement:

Members of the Romney family gathered for a photograph.
(Photo: Elise Amendola/Associated Press)

As a way of building up families, Mr. Romney talked over the weekend about reviving a policy under President Reagan that mandated a “family impact statement” be drafted for every new policy or government program. I wondered what one of those might look like for a presidential campaign.

Check out the —–> entire entry, I found it very insightful about the behind the scenes of Romney’s campaign. I’m so happy that he cares so much about his family that he’s taken each and every one of them along for the ride.

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I was just reading an article by Michael Luo at the NYT Caucus political blog about what is becoming a “Romney trademark.” It’s his jogging during appearances at parades.

I have seen this in videos on major news organization’s sites, the characteristic energy and enthusiasm at these parades. Clips of MR running down one side of the street, crossing over to the other side to say, “Hi, I’m Mitt Romney and I’m running for President.” Then catching up to the parade by jogging down the street.

We have all noticed how the Presidency ages the men who serve in that office. It’s important that the person we elect not only has the right positions on the issues, but also has the abundant energy to face the rigors of the office. There is no question in my mind that Mitt Romney has those characteristics, in abundance.

~~John Cronin~~

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The Politico’s Jonathan Martin: “Gregg – whose father was governor and whose last name retains considerable cache – is the prize get in New Hampshire for any GOP presidential hopeful.” (Jonathan Martin, “Gregg To Endorse Romney,” The Politico, 10/29/07)

The New York Times’ Michael Luo: “Mitt Romney has landed a big endorsement in the Granite State. … So this was a big ‘get’ for Mr. Romney, who is leading in the polls in this early primary state.” (Michael Luo, “Gregg To Endorse Romney In N.H.,” The New York Times’ “The Caucus,” 10/29/07)

The Hill’s Klaus Marre: “Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney (R) scored a major win Monday with the endorsement of Sen. Judd Gregg (R-N.H.). The backing of New Hampshire’s senior senator should provide a boost to Romney, who already leads in the key early primary state.” (Klaus Marre, “Romney Scores Big Win With Gregg Endorsement,” The Hill, 10/29/07)

The Boston Globe’s Foon Rhee: “Mitt Romney will have a big name by his side today at a rally before he officially files for the New Hampshire primary. US Senator Judd Gregg, who is in his third term representing the Granite State, is endorsing Romney, his campaign announced this morning.” (Foon Rhee, “Gregg Backs Romney,” The Boston Globe’s “Political Intelligence,” 10/29/07)

ABC News’ Matt Stuart: “The endorsement is a boost for Romney’s New Hampshire chances, as the state’s junior senator, Republican John Sununu, has said he will remain neutral through the primary season.” (Matt Stuart, “Romney Wins Key N.H. Endorsement,” ABC News, 10/29/07)

MSNBC’s Erin McPike: “On the morning of his filing in New Hampshire, Romney got a nice boost to his Granite State campaign. Senior Sen. Judd Gregg (R) endorsed Romney and will join him in Concord for his presidential filing.” (Erin McPike, “NH Senator Endorses Romney,” MSNBC’s First Read, 10/29/07)

Wall Street Journal’s Susan Davis: “This is good news for Romney and comes on the heels of the latest University of Iowa Hawkeye poll released this morning that shows Romney as the clear favorite in Iowa, with nearly three times as much support as any other Republican candidate in the field in the state among likely caucus goers.” (Susan Davis, “Judd To Endorse Romney,” Wall Street Journal’s “Washington Wire,” 10/29/07)

Townhall’s Hugh Hewitt: “This is a very big deal for the Romney campaign. … Senator Gregg’s endorsement is the most sought-after in the Granite State, and it adds to the sense of momentum that Romney has built there.” (Hugh Hewitt, “New Hampshire Senator Judd Gregg Endorses Romney,” Townhall, 10/29/07)

CNN’s Mark Preston: “Gregg’s decision to back Romney is a major boost for the Massachusetts governor…” (Mark Preston, “Senior New Hampshire Senator To Back Romney,” CNN, 10/29/07)

The Washington Post’s Michael Shear: “Do endorsements matter? Mitt Romney is about to pick up a key vote of support that could help answer that question. Later today, Romney will receive the endorsement of New Hampshire Sen. Judd Gregg in Concord, according to the campaign.” (Michael Shear, “N.H.’s Gregg For Romney,” The Washington Post’s “The Trail,” 10/29/07)

The Atlantic’s Marc Ambinder: “It’s tough to say that any endorsement carries votes these days, but Gregg’s ability to validate Romney’s competence and economic message, as well as his freedom to act as a surrogate for Romney at events should not be underrated.” (Marc Ambinder, “Breaking: Sen. Judd Gregg To Endorse Romney,” The Atlantic, 10/29/07)

Real Clear Politics’ Reid Wilson: “Sen. Judd Gregg, dean of the New Hampshire congressional delegation, will endorse Mitt Romney today at the state capitol, the Union Leader reports this morning.” (Reid Wilson, “Gregg Endorses,” Real Clear Politics, 10/29/07)

Arizona Republic’s Dan Nowicki: “Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney today announced the endorsement of one of New Hampshire’s Republican senators, Judd Gregg. As far as Granite State endorsements go, this one is pretty big.” (Dan Nowicki, “Romney Wins Key New Hampshire Endorsement,” Arizona Republic’s “McCain Central,” 10/29/07)

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It looks like Ron Paul and his supporters irritate someone else besides just me.

NYT.COM THE CAUCUS

By Kate Phillips

Ms. Phillips writes about a new ban on Ron Paul supporters commenting over at REDSTATE. Quoting Leon Wolfe…………

“Effective immediately, new users may NOT shill for Ron Paul in any way, shape, form or fashion. Not in comments, not in diaries, nada. If your account is less than six months old, you can talk about something else, you can participate in the other threads and be your zany libertarian self all you want, but you can not pimp for Ron Paul. Those with accounts more than six months old may proceed as normal.”

Hopefully future debate producers will consider dropping Dr. Paul and his rants as well, so we can get some more air time for the serious candidates.

~~John Cronin~~

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From The Orlando Sentinel

Fred Thompson spoke to a group of GOP activists assembled in Orlando yesterday, apparently he didn’t say much though.

Thompson’s speech was so short — 4 min. and 37 seconds — some people in the crowd mistook his conclusion as just an applause line.

He spoke far less than any of the other candidates at the evening rally. Former Mass. Gov. Mitt Romney was on stage for about 10 minutes, U.S. Sen. John McCain spoke for about 16 minutes and former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani addressed the crowd for almost 22 minutes.

Update:

This comes from The Caucus - Political Blogging From The New York Times

ORLANDO, Fla. — Rudolph W. Giuliani, the first to speak before more than 1,000 Republicans here Saturday night for their annual party convention, worked the crowd into a near frenzy as he lashed out at the specter of a President Hillary Clinton.

Senator John McCain, who spoke next, held the audience rapt as he described the struggle in Iraq, as well as his own experience with war and suffering, in detail and with evident emotion.

Mitt Romney, who focused on the importance of family, brought his wife, Ann, and son, Tagg, on stage: real live family members to show he is a real live family man.

When it came time for Fred D. Thompson, the crowd was primed, having listened to his rivals deliver speeches, lasting about 20 minutes each, that the candidates each obviously thought played to their strengths.

Mr. Thompson walked slowly onto the stage, kissed his wife, Jerri, on the cheek, made a joke or two, claimed to be a “consistent conservative” — and said good night. He spoke for four minutes.

You really have to wonder why this guy decided to run for President. The drive is just not there, why on earth has anyone fallen for him?

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