comMITTed to Romney!

I posted earlier today on policy and track record related reasons for not supporting John McCain. Add financial viability to that list.

The Politico reports that McCain has been approved for $5.8M in taxpayer matching funds for his campaign. Now, leave aside for a moment whether you think it makes sense for taxpayer dollars to subsidize candidates who cannot raise enough their own funds on the open market. Accepting these funds would cap the total amount of money that McCain can spend at $50M until after the September Republican National Convention. Given that as of Q3, McCain had spent $29M, and assuming that his burn rate in Q4 held flat (big assumption), that means by this time, he’s probably spent about $40M to date.

This would leave only $10M for McCain to spend between now and September! To provide a sense of scale, John Kerry raised $233M and GWB raised $259M in primary dollars back in 2004. It’s no stretch to believe that HRC or Obama would raise at least this much, giving them over a 5 to 1 advantage over a hypothetical candidate McCain!

Marc Ambinder wrote about this scenario back in July. Key excerpts:

A minefield awaits Sen. John McCain if he asks his campaign to accept federal matching funds for the primary.

There are two significant limitations that come with the roughly $6M that the federal government would pay McCain. One is that McCain would not be able to raise money beyond the limits proscribed by the system. That’s about $50M. If the nomination contest is wrapped by Feb 6., Mr. McCain will be out of money. The Democratic nominee may find him or herself in a similar predicament, but they have the option of raising and spending as much as they want between February and their late August convention. McCain could raise nothing. And therefore could spend nothing. He would rely on the good graces of the national media to ensure that at the very least, he gets to respond to the Democratic presidential nominee. But he won’t be able to campaign. He wouldn’t be able to build a field organization for the general election, relying instead on the Republican National Committee to conceive, fund, and construct the entire GOTV apparatus. (Forget about RNC soft money ads. Um, McCain-Feingold prohibits them.) He probably couldn’t even campaign. Outside allies in the party? They don’t like McCain.

This is an argument that McCain’s opponents will make to reporters and to wavering Republicans: by accepting federal matching funds, McCain will put himself at a distinct disadvantage if he wins the nomination. The Democrat, in other words, would have an edge.

Now, as a guy who donated to Tom McClintock on principle in his run against Arnold SchwarzenKennedy in the California Republican gubenatorial primary (for those of you from California, you know exactly what I’m talking about…for you non-Golden Staters, think Don Quixote tilting at windmills), I am the last person to lecture McCain supporters over his financial viability. That being said, the thought of having a hamstrung candidate who cannot spend any money during the spring and summer while the Democrats pick him apart piece by piece has to give even the most die-hard McCain supporter pause.

By contrast, here’s why I’m supporting Mitt Romney for President.

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Is this really 7 days old? Why have I not heard about this? This is big-time crazy, and will be on Drudge, I bet, or all over major newspapers soon….

How many of these stories has the politico broke, and is the date on the link accurate? From 7 days ago?

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1207/7494.html

“

By: Kenneth P. Vogel
Dec 20, 2007 01:03 PM EST

The Federal Election Commission, facing imminent crippling over a confirmation stalemate, on Thursday approved more than $19 million in matching taxpayer money for seven cash-strapped presidential candidates.

“Democrat John Edwards will get $8.8 million in federal funds, and Republican John McCain $5.8 million.

…

“On the other hand, McCain, an Arizona senator, has ‘not made a decision on matching funds,’ said spokeswoman Jill Hazelbaker, who added the campaign hasn’t borrowed against anticipated matching funds.

…

“The matching fund program provides up to $250 in taxpayer money for each donation from an individual, with the maximum amount a candidate could receive currently estimated to be about $21 million.

“But it’s seen as a trade-off, since it also caps at about $50 million the amount of cash campaigns can spend during the primary.”

Maybe this hasn’t been all over the news because not everyone understands it. Since the primary election technically ends after the Republican convention’s conclusion on September 4, Sen. McCain will be essentially be unable to spend virtually any money throughout the summer of 2008. Marc Ambinder at The Atlantic discussed the scenario earlier this year:

http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2007/07/mccain_the_matching_fund_quand.php

“A minefield awaits Sen. John McCain if he asks his campaign to accept federal matching funds for the primary.

“There are two significant limitations that come with the roughly $6M that the federal government would pay McCain. One is that McCain would not be able to raise money beyond the limits proscribed by the system. That’s about $50M. If the nomination contest is wrapped by Feb 6., Mr. McCain will be out of money. The Democratic nominee may find him or herself in a similar predicament, but they have the option of raising and spending as much as they want between February and their late August convention. McCain could raise nothing. And therefore could spend nothing. He would rely on the good graces of the national media to ensure that at the very least, he gets to respond to the Democratic presidential nominee. But he won’t be able to campaign. He wouldn’t be able to build a field organization for the general election, relying instead on the Republican National Committee to conceive, fund, and construct the entire GOTV apparatus. (Forget about RNC soft money ads. Um, McCain-Feingold prohibits them.)

He probably couldn’t even campaign

. Outside allies in the party? They don’t like McCain.

“This is an argument that McCain’s opponents will make to reporters and to wavering Republicans: by accepting federal matching funds, McCain will put himself at a distinct disadvantage if he wins the nomination.

The Democrat, in other words, would have an edge

.”

So how great of a handicap would matching funds be for the Republican nominee? Well, according to the New York Times, President Bush raised roughly $259 million in primary dollars and Senator Kerry raised more than $233.5 million in 2004. Again, Senator McCain would be limited to a mere $50 million total in the primaries.

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The Politico’s Jonathan Martin: “Gregg – whose father was governor and whose last name retains considerable cache – is the prize get in New Hampshire for any GOP presidential hopeful.” (Jonathan Martin, “Gregg To Endorse Romney,” The Politico, 10/29/07)

The New York Times’ Michael Luo: “Mitt Romney has landed a big endorsement in the Granite State. … So this was a big ‘get’ for Mr. Romney, who is leading in the polls in this early primary state.” (Michael Luo, “Gregg To Endorse Romney In N.H.,” The New York Times’ “The Caucus,” 10/29/07)

The Hill’s Klaus Marre: “Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney (R) scored a major win Monday with the endorsement of Sen. Judd Gregg (R-N.H.). The backing of New Hampshire’s senior senator should provide a boost to Romney, who already leads in the key early primary state.” (Klaus Marre, “Romney Scores Big Win With Gregg Endorsement,” The Hill, 10/29/07)

The Boston Globe’s Foon Rhee: “Mitt Romney will have a big name by his side today at a rally before he officially files for the New Hampshire primary. US Senator Judd Gregg, who is in his third term representing the Granite State, is endorsing Romney, his campaign announced this morning.” (Foon Rhee, “Gregg Backs Romney,” The Boston Globe’s “Political Intelligence,” 10/29/07)

ABC News’ Matt Stuart: “The endorsement is a boost for Romney’s New Hampshire chances, as the state’s junior senator, Republican John Sununu, has said he will remain neutral through the primary season.” (Matt Stuart, “Romney Wins Key N.H. Endorsement,” ABC News, 10/29/07)

MSNBC’s Erin McPike: “On the morning of his filing in New Hampshire, Romney got a nice boost to his Granite State campaign. Senior Sen. Judd Gregg (R) endorsed Romney and will join him in Concord for his presidential filing.” (Erin McPike, “NH Senator Endorses Romney,” MSNBC’s First Read, 10/29/07)

Wall Street Journal’s Susan Davis: “This is good news for Romney and comes on the heels of the latest University of Iowa Hawkeye poll released this morning that shows Romney as the clear favorite in Iowa, with nearly three times as much support as any other Republican candidate in the field in the state among likely caucus goers.” (Susan Davis, “Judd To Endorse Romney,” Wall Street Journal’s “Washington Wire,” 10/29/07)

Townhall’s Hugh Hewitt: “This is a very big deal for the Romney campaign. … Senator Gregg’s endorsement is the most sought-after in the Granite State, and it adds to the sense of momentum that Romney has built there.” (Hugh Hewitt, “New Hampshire Senator Judd Gregg Endorses Romney,” Townhall, 10/29/07)

CNN’s Mark Preston: “Gregg’s decision to back Romney is a major boost for the Massachusetts governor…” (Mark Preston, “Senior New Hampshire Senator To Back Romney,” CNN, 10/29/07)

The Washington Post’s Michael Shear: “Do endorsements matter? Mitt Romney is about to pick up a key vote of support that could help answer that question. Later today, Romney will receive the endorsement of New Hampshire Sen. Judd Gregg in Concord, according to the campaign.” (Michael Shear, “N.H.’s Gregg For Romney,” The Washington Post’s “The Trail,” 10/29/07)

The Atlantic’s Marc Ambinder: “It’s tough to say that any endorsement carries votes these days, but Gregg’s ability to validate Romney’s competence and economic message, as well as his freedom to act as a surrogate for Romney at events should not be underrated.” (Marc Ambinder, “Breaking: Sen. Judd Gregg To Endorse Romney,” The Atlantic, 10/29/07)

Real Clear Politics’ Reid Wilson: “Sen. Judd Gregg, dean of the New Hampshire congressional delegation, will endorse Mitt Romney today at the state capitol, the Union Leader reports this morning.” (Reid Wilson, “Gregg Endorses,” Real Clear Politics, 10/29/07)

Arizona Republic’s Dan Nowicki: “Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney today announced the endorsement of one of New Hampshire’s Republican senators, Judd Gregg. As far as Granite State endorsements go, this one is pretty big.” (Dan Nowicki, “Romney Wins Key New Hampshire Endorsement,” Arizona Republic’s “McCain Central,” 10/29/07)

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From Blog 4President dot ORG

National Review’s Jim Geraghty: “One of [Romney's] strongest performances…” (Jim Geraghty, “Everybody Was Good,” National Review’s Campaign Spot, National Review’s The Corner, Posted 10/21/07)

Powerline Blog’s Paul Mirengoff: “Romney was solid, as he generally is … Near the end of the debate, he finally launched into an attack on the Clinton administration’s ‘vacation from history’ foreign policy (‘we got the dividend but not the peace’). Attacks like that are guaranteed winners in these kinds of debates, and Romney needs to make them at every opportunity.” (Paul Mirengoff, “A Sleeping Giant Wakes Up,” Powerline Blog, Powerline Blog , Accessed 10/21/07)

· Geraghty: “[Romney had] great jabs at Hillary, and seemed to feed off the crowd’s energy.” (Jim Geraghty, “Everybody Was Good,” National Review’s Campaign Spot, The National Review, Posted 10/21/07)

· Geraghty: “Mitt leads the raucous crowd in rejecting Hillary as a potential commander-in-chief.” (Jim Geraghty, “How Do I Give You The Highlights?” National Review’s Campaign Spot, National Review, Posted 10/21/07)

NBC’s Chuck Todd: Romney was “red hot.” (Chuck Todd, “Quick Post-Debate Thoughts,” MSNBC’s First Read,

The Atlantic's Marc Ambinder: "As the Republicans debated who is more conservative tonight, two voices stood out: Mitt Romney's and Rudy Giuliani's." (Marc Ambinder, "The Republican Debate: First Take," The Atlantic Blog, The Atlantic Break, Posted 10/21/07)

The American Spectator’s Jennifer Rubin: “On marriage Romney gives a strong statement in favor of amendment.” (Jennifer Rubin, “Debate 2,” The American Spectator Blog, American Spectator Blog, Posted 10/21/07)

· Right Wing News’ John Hawkins: “Mitt is right about gay marriage. Activist judges are deliberately distorting the law to implement gay marriage…” (John Hawkins, “Debate Liveblogging,” Right Wing News, Right Wing News, Posted 10/21/07)

· Geraghty: “[Romney] makes a strong case on [gay marriage], citing the Massachusetts and Iowa state constitutions.” (Jim Geraghty, “After The Opening Brawl Among the Top Tier…,” National Review’s Campaign Spot, National Reviews’s Campaign Spot, Posted 10/21/07)

The Atlantic’s Marc Marinder: “[Romney's] best moment may have been when he said that an insurmountable problem like the health care crisis can, indeed, be solved. It wasn’t just a candidate saying he was optimistic; he showed how optimism, will and plod can be potent problem-solving forces.” (Marc Ambinder, “The Republican Debate: First Take,” The Atlantic Blog, The Atlantic Blog, Posted 10/21/07)

· The American Spectator’s John Tabin: “He had a target on his back during the health care section, and ably defended himself.” (John Tabin, “Candidate Scorecard,” AmSpec Blog, American Spectator Blog, Posted 10/21/07)

· Ambinder: “Say what you will about the guy: [Romney] expended political capital, he worked hard, and he did something meaningful to reform the health care system in his state. Very few candidates on either side can say that.” (Marc Ambinder, “It Took Romney Long Enough…” The Atlantic Blog, The Atlantic Blog, Posted 10/21/07)

· Ambinder: “But it stands out as an prime example — perhaps the ultimate example — of conservative governance. Romney worked hard at health care in Massachusetts; he worked with Democrats; he worked with Republicans; he wound up with a novel program that, while not perfect and not transferable to other states, stands out as a real accomplishment. Romney calls himself an executive and a manager; with health care, he executed and managed in real time.” (Marc Ambinder, “The Republican Debate: First Take,” The Atlantic Blog, The Atlantic Blog, Posted 10/21/07)

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