comMITTed to Romney!

With McCain sinking in the polls and Obama showing 313 Electoral College Votes according to Real Clear Politics, the presumptive favorite of conservatives, Mitt Romney, continues to campaign for Republican candidates nationwide.

http://www.pressofatlanticcity.com/109/story/285485.html

By ROB SPAHR Staff Writer, 609-978-2012

MEDFORD TOWNSHIP - Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney formally endorsed Chris Myers, the Republican candidate for the U.S. House of Representatives in New Jersey’s 3rd District on Tuesday.

Romney, who campaigned for president earlier this year, called Myers an unusual man who offers the district a unique opportunity.

“I don’t think people recognize how unique it is to find a person with a good heart and a great mind and also unique experience, a combination that is sorely needed in Washington,” Romney said. “Chris is a person who has experience in the military sector, in the private sector and in the public sector. All three areas have given him the kind of perspective which brings a unique capacity to help the people of this district.”

U.S. Rep. Jim Saxton, R-3rd, whose seat Myers is attempting to fill, said there is no industry more important to the 3rd District than the ones surrounding defense security.

“For me to pass the baton to somebody like Chris Myers (a vice president with Lockheed Martin), to manage that Congressional side of that national security industry that’s in this district, there is nobody like Chris Myers. Certainly, not his opponent,” Saxton said.

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Before you pull the lever for John McCain on Super Tuesday, please consider the following information first. As a Mitt Romney supporter, I would prefer to convince people why they should vote for my candidate, rather than against John McCain. However, I’ve tried this approach for the past 18 months, but people haven’t been able to get past his religion or the false impression that he’s a flip-flopper. As governor, Romney never contradicted a position he campaigned for in 2002 and while he did change his stance on abortion, he upheld his campaign promises throughout the end of his term. You can trust that the stances he is taking for America (which are decidedly different than the needs of Massachusetts in 2002), will be consistently adhered to while he is in office.

McCain on the other hand consistently changes positions, or blatantly lies about his record and the records of others. As accounts continue to surface about his private dealings with fellow legislators, staffers, and other private individuals, it is abundantly clear that John McCain is concerned about the one thing he’s always been concerned about—himself.

Perhaps you’ve resigned yourself to the “electability” argument, and believe that John McCain is the only Republican who could win in November. McCain will be the first one to tell you not to trust polls that come out 6 months before an election (just look at last July’s polling data for McCain). Additionally, you give the Democrats too much credit. As the economy and budget woes worsen, neither Hillary Clinton nor Barak Obama has any credibility to solve this impending crisis. On this issue alone, John McCain would be much easier to beat than Romney since he can’t run effectively on the economy. If we nominate John McCain, it will be like nominating Bob Dole all over again (and he was supposed to be the most electable at the time).

For all you know, everything I have just said could simply be made up charges for political reasons. So I ask you to take a look at the whole picture of John McCain’s life and his accelerated advancement through the naval ranks—in spite of his poor record and actions unbecoming of a Naval officer. As you read the following story of McCain’s Naval record, compare this with Mitt Romney and answer the following questions:

· Both had influential fathers, what did this give them in life?
· Both were accepted to prestigious universities, what did they do with that opportunity?
· Both had careers that ended in high-profile positions. How did they get there?
· How do their personal and family lives compare?
· What kind of people do they associate themselves with?
· What have these two candidate shown that they are good at?

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OK, “conspiracy” is probably too strong. However, consider the following figures in early state polling courtesy of Real Clear Politics’ and Pollster.com’s 2008 Polling sites (other resources used: Electoral Votes from FEC website; Primary calendar from About.com):

Iowa–Jan 3rd (7 electoral votes) has been polled:

• 9 times in the last 7 weeks.
• 27 times in the last 6 months– 4.5X/mo
• Romney leads RCP average by 14%

Wyoming–Jan 5th (3 electoral votes–only a fraction of state’s primary delegates up for grabs on this date though):

• No polling that I could find
• Conventional wisdom is that Romney will win here solidly (he just got 61% of vote in a straw poll last weekend)

New Hampshire–Jan 8th (4 electoral votes) has been polled:

• 10 times in the last 7 weeks.
• 27 times in the last 6 months– 4.5X/mo.
• Romney leads RCP average by 8%

Nevada–Jan 12th (5 electoral votes) has been polled:

• 2 times in the last 7 weeks.
• 6 times in the last 6 months–1X/mo.
• No RCP average calculated . . . but Romney leads Rudy by 1% over last 6 polls (though many expect Romney to do much better in the caucus format than Rudy)

Michigan–Jan 15th (17 electoral votes) has been polled:

• 2 times in the last 7 weeks.
• 7 times in the last 6 months–1.2X/mo.
• Romney leads RCP average by 5%

South Carolina–Jan 19th (8 electoral votes) has been polled:

• 6 times in the last 7 weeks.
• 19 times in the last 6 months– 3.2X/mo.
• Statistically a 3 way tie for first (Romney,Rudy, Fred)

Florida–Jan 29th (27 electoral votes) has been polled:

• 11 times in the last 7 weeks.
• 27 times in the last 6 months– 4.5X/mo.
• Rudy leads RCP average by 11%

Some observations:

1. The traditional “Big Three” early states (IA, NH, SC) have a long history of being frequently polled and this remains the case.
2. MI and FL seem like they should be polled similarly to me (the two largest states prior to Feb 5th). However, where Romney leads and is expected to win there is a paucity of polls but where Rudy leads and is expected to win there’s over a poll per week (and nearly two per week over the last 7 weeks)
3. There seems to be a polling firm “blind spot” to WY (completely) and Nevada (relatively) when these are two of the first 4 contests . . . and (”coincidentally”???) where Romney is leading polls or expected to win.

Now, moving on to Feb 5th (”Tsunami Tuesday”) some of the polling trends borderline on comical. Here are all the states going that date:
Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado (caucuses), Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Illinois, Minnesota, Missouri, New Jersey, New York, North Dakota (caucuses), Oklahoma, Tennessee, Utah

New Jersey (15 electoral votes) has been polled:

• 5 times in the last 7 weeks.
• 12 times in the last 6 months– 2X/mo.
• Rudy leads by OVER 40%!!.

WHY IS NJ BEING POLLED MORE THAN MICHIGAN?!?!? Rudy’s never led by less than 32% in any of these copious NJ polls. Who’s wasting all this money polling a state that’s never been close when it’s just another Feb 5th state? Something’s fishy there.

California (51 electoral votes) has been polled:

• 5 times in the last 7 weeks.
• 15 times in the last 6 months–2.5X/mo.
• Rudy leads RCP average by 19%

CA is the biggest prize and so I see why it’s polled frequently

Moving on:

Pennsylvania–April 11th (YES, that’s over 2 months AFTER Tsunami Tues!; 21 electoral votes) has been polled:
3 times in the last 7 weeks.
11 times in the last 6 months– ~2X/mo.
Rudy leading by about 22%
Again, why in the world is this state being polled more than MI!? Don’t you think the results of the early states and the results of Tsunami Tuesday just might have a little effect on how Penn votes on April 11th? That’s called wasted money.

Conclusions/Questions:
So, is this ample evidence that there is an over-abundance and over-representation of polls for states where Rudy leads strongly? Or is there an ignoring of non-traditional early states where Romney is leading? Is this an attempt to get repeated positive news/headlines for Rudy and/or to downplay/diminish Mitt’s potential?

Why the huge disparity between MI and FL? Why more NJ and Penn polls than MI? Why is NV being largely ignored? Am I missing something? Am I doomed to become a “conspiracy theorist?”

Thoughts? Comments?

Jeff Fuller

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http://www.app.com/apps/p…9/NEWS/70119017

BOSTON, Mass. � Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney announced today that New Jersey State Sen. Joseph M. Kyrillos Jr., R-Monmouth, will serve as New Jersey Chairman of the Romney for President Exploratory Committee.

Romney also named Republican National Committeeman David Norcross as a New Jersey State Co-Chair.

“Sen. Kyrillos and David Norcross are proven leaders with distinguished careers of public service,” Romney said in a statement. “Their experience and determination will help ensure a strong statewide organization.”

Kyrillos is a former state chairman of the Republican Party in New Jersey.

Ann Marie

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