|  Paul Johnson
|
January 9th, 2008 | | Posted in Attack Ads, Barack Obama, Campaign Trail, Debates, Democrats, Early Primary States, Independents, John McCain, John McCain, Jonathan Martin, Michigan, Mike Huckabee, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Mitt Romney, National Review, Negative Ads, New Hampshire, Olympics, Primaries & Caucuses, South Carolina, negativity
|
Thanks to John Cronin for the current delegate count, which Mitt leads. But let’s also try this with an Olympics theme. USA! USA!
Current medal count on the GOP 2008 Winter Games, in order:
Mitt: 1 gold (WY), 2 silvers (IA, NH)
Huck: 1 gold (IA), 1 bronze (NH)
McCain: 1 gold (NH)
Mitt also leads the popular vote counting only IA and NH (couldn’t find the info for WY, which should add significantly to his lead). While McCain’s win is impressive for his comeback from the dead, he’ll start getting real scrutiny once the charm wears off. I find it hard to anoint him the GOP nominee just yet with just one win under his belt, particularly with the name recognition in NH and having carried it decisively in 2000. I believe his margin of victory tonight was by less than he beat GW back then.
USA! USA!
Lessons Learned?
If I had to cite lessons learned, I’d focus on the last few days in NH where I think Mitt was making a rebound before time ran out. Here is my sense as a true lay observer:
1. The debates helped. Why? Piling on didn’t look good for John, even though he came out the victor tonight. And in the 2d debate the press was uniformly positive, I think because Mitt stayed on his message. People seem to want to connect with him, and he succeeded in that 2d debate.
2. Mitt seemed to “find his voice” (to use his term). Again he started connecting with people. Mitt just seems too good to be true to some. It seems the best way to combat that is to let them get to know you personally; put yourself out there and stir real emotion (remaining presidential, of course).
3. As Mitt stayed on message about change and fixing Washington, people seemed to see someone they could vote for, instead of someone they’re less likely to vote against.
4. The main stream media is mostly just looking for a story. That may not sound like a revelation, but I personally don’t think the press is always biased (okay, Jonathan Martin at the Politico seems to be). The focus just goes to the “story”: Obama’s charisma, John McCain’s resurrection, Hillary’s tears; etc. Mitt needs to find a positive story (perhaps a decisive win in Michigan!) for them to report on. Comebacks seem to attract attention (McCain has had one, Huckabee has had one, Obama has had one, Clinton has had one–now it’s our turn).
Bottom line from the above: I think Mitt’s got a great, positive message he can continue to deliver and I’d encourage him to get out there and deliver it passionately, like we know he can. There’s a reason the National Review chose him: his positions on all the issues, which I know he believes in. And we shouldn’t necessarily look for any breaks from the media, nor take it too personally if they’re negative. It’s kind of like the refs in a sports contest: you can’t complain about them, you just have to play through it and give them something good to talk about.
The Independent Factor
The thought was Independents would pile on for Obama, but perhaps they went to McCain instead, thinking Obama had it in the bag. Here’s a quote from CNN tonight:
exit polls showed 37 percent of those who cast a Republican ballot Tuesday identified themselves as independents, and McCain got the votes of 39 percent of them, compared with 27 percent for former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, who finished second Tuesday. Romney and McCain were almost even among those who identified themselves as Republicans, with 33 and 34 percent, respectively”
While it’s clear McCain got more of them, I wonder where the rest went (only 66% of Independents voting Republican are accounted for above). In any event one final takeaway from this is not to get too cocky about Obama’s ability to draw Independents, or to even beat Hillary. Some good news in that is that the Democratic race may be as lengthy as the GOP race. Some had said a long fight in the GOP after the Dems had already anointed their candidate would favor the Democrats. Even more good news–Republican turnout was quite high in NH as well, meaning the GOP is paying attention, as we all know they should. And to repeat, with all the record turnout, MITT LEADS THE POPULAR VOTE.
USA! USA!
Share on Facebook
Share This