comMITTed to Romney!

Here’s the latest scuttlebutt on Mitt Romney’s standing in the Veep Sweepstakes. It is fascinating to me that the voter dynamics are the same as they were during the primary season. Mitt is seen as the #2 Republican in the nation. Eighteen months ago, the nation didn’t recognize the name Mitt Romney. Today Intrade puts him in first place to get the VP nod.

Huckabee is ranked #1 among entertainment agent’s as the most likely to get a new game show gig.

~~John Cronin~~

http://www.nypost.com/seven/06032008/news/nationalnews
/gamblers_bet_on_hill__mitt_for_veep_113714.htm

June 3, 2008 – Hillary Rodham Clinton and Mitt Romney are the favorites to be their parties’ vice-presidential nominees, according to a popular online betting site.

Intrade, which correctly picked the winner of every state in the 2004 general election, evaluates the veepstakes chances of 30 prominent political figures - 16 Democrats and 14 Republicans.

Among Democrats, Clinton holds a slight lead over Virginia Sen. James Webb, with a 21 percent chance of her being named to the No. 2 spot, compared with Webb’s 19.7 percent.
In a distant third place is New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, at 6.2 percent.

On the GOP side, there are three leaders, Romney at 19.2 percent, Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty at 15.6 percent and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee at 14.1 percent, according to Intrade.

Intrade is one of several online political “prediction markets” in which participants speculate on outcomes of campaigns, election turnout, the chances of a brokered Democratic convention and even whether Eliot Spitzer will get indicted.

Intrade’s participants hedged their bets saying there’s an excellent chance the veep picks will be “none of the above.”

They say there’s a 40.8 percent possibility none of the 14 prominent Republicans drawing attention will get the nod. For Democrats, the figure is 28.5 percent.
andy.soltis@nypost.com

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There has been lots of discussion about where die-hard Mitt supporters should go now that he has suspended his campaign. Here is my humble contribution to that conversation.

As I see it, the answer is to support…nobody for the primaries. Let McCain and Huck battle it out. Huck will get some more delegates. McCain will either clinch or be just short, and Huck will force himself onto the ticket. We wll have a McCain/Huck ticket which will go down in flames (not saying I want this or think this is a good thing…I just think this is how it’s going to play out). Mitt can stay above the fray and become the leading Conservative candidate for 2012.

If you could guarrantee me a Republican Congress (or at least one of the chambers), I wouldn’t feel bad at all about McCain/Huck losing. Problem is that a Republican Congress seems unlikely or at least tough to project at this point, so what we do in November is a more complicated question, which I haven’t figured out yet for myself.

The plan for the primaries is easy, however. Continue to vote for Mitt (or none of the above if you can’t vote for Mitt)! Let McCain and Huck win/lose on their own merits!

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Updated: 2-01-2008

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Click here for a complete state by state results.

~Nate Gunderson

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Read the whole thing. Here are some choice quotes:

In 2000, running against George W. Bush and the entire Carroll Campbell machine in South Carolina, John McCain got 42% of the vote, and 240,000 votes out of 573,000 or so cast.

Tonight, he got 33% of the vote in a field where his top challengers—Romney and Giuliani—aren’t even running, and 135,000 actual votes. If just the same people who voted for McCain in 2000 had voted for him today, he would have won 50+% of the South Carolina vote. That would have been truly impressive.

Instead, John McCain LOST the support of 100,000 people—and he’s the winner?

McCain had the same “success” in New Hampshire (McCain, 2000: 48%, 116,000 votes; McCain 2008: 37%, 89,000 votes) and Michigan (2000: 50%, 600,000 votes; 2008: 30%, 257,000 votes).

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According to the MSM……If Romney doesn’t win Iowa, he’s toast………If Romney doesn’t win Wyoming, he’s toast……..If Romney doesn’t win New Hampshire, he’s toast……..If Romney doesn’t win Michigan, he’s toast………If Romney doesn’t win Nevada, he’s toast……If Romney doesn’t win,…… oh, never mind, but you just wait until he has to face the Democrats in the Fall.

Sure.

Updated delegate count:

Romney——72

And now it’s on to Florida and let’s win there!

~~John Cronin~~

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Here are a few encouraging details from tonight’s contest, from the CBS News website:

According to CBS News exit polls, self-described Republicans made up 68 percent of the vote - and they supported Romney by a wide margin. Independents made up just 25 percent of the GOP primary vote today while just 7 percent were Democrats. In 2000, independents made up 35 percent of the vote while another 17 percent were Democrats.

The economy overwhelmingly topped the concerns of voters, with 55 percent of primary voters citing it as their top concern. The Iraq war ranked second, but lagged far behind. Just 17 percent said that was their top concern. Discussion of the economy dominated the Michigan contest in its closing days, as Romney sought to strike an optimistic tone about the future of a state which has seen some 76,000 jobs lost in the past year alone.

… Romney also won among late-deciding voters, indicating that his arguments may have won some supporters.

Takeaways? The GOP is supporting Mitt, and “it’s the economy, _______.”

Additional takeaways? Mitt sticking to his message seems very productive. Mitt gained a head of steam and connected with people, which he’ll need continue. Meanwhile McCain lost momentum as he had to defend his truth-distorting, sack of fibs mailer. In addition, earned media seems much better at conveying and building momentum than paid media.

And lest we forget, the big difference maker in Michigan was Mitt’s “no job left behind” theme, giving hope where the Washington insider offered only pessimism and job retraining. Now that Mitt’s found his stride I expect the good vibe and the connection he’s making with voters to continue.

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Congratulations to Governor Romney and his campaign team on a great win in Michigan tonight! As they say down South, he gave the competition a “thumpin’.”

It will be fascinating to analyze the exit polls to see just what the dynamics of the voting indicates. One thing that jumped out of the stats I saw was that among Catholics who go to church weekly, 41% voted for Gov. Romney. So much for Pastor Mike’s attempt to divide and conquer.

Here is the updated delegate count. MSM pundits, pay very close attention to these numbers. Try to keep them in mind as you sit down at your desk and place your fingers on your computer’s keyboard.

These numbers should be the reason why you should exercise a healthy discipline with yourself if you are tempted to write another column or blog calling on Gov. Romney to withdraw from the race.

The reason that Gov. Romney has not taken your advise is because HE IS WINNING!!

Romney…………42

Hunter……………1

~~John Cronin~~

“For of those to whom much is given, much is required. And when at some future date the high court of history sits in judgment on each of us, recording whether in our brief span of service we fulfilled our responsibilities to the state, our success or failure, in whatever office we hold, we will be measured by the answer to four questions: First, were we truly men of courage…..Second, were we truly men of judgment…..Third, were we truly men of integrity…..Finally, were we truly men of dedication?

We observe today not a victory of party but a celebration of freedom, symbolizing an end as well as a beginning, signifying renewal as well as change.”

John Fitzgerald Kennedy, Inaugural Address, Jan. 20, 1961

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The information below was taken from Wikipedia (schedule) and CNN.com (results). There are several different tallies out there on what the current delegate count is. I used CNN.com’s tally not because it showed Romney with the largest lead, but that it had the most detailed info including ALL delegates that have been awarded so far, and I was able to verify most of the info from the individual state GOP websites.

I’ve put this info into this post which will soon get buried by others. I have made a permanent page to keep this info and the subsequent updates. A link to this page is found in the sidebar near the top labeled Primary Schedule, Results. I will add more states to the schedule when I have time, and update the results as necessary.

~Nate Gunderson

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*Wyoming results not included since no vote tally was given

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Question: In tabulating Delegates, what does the ‘Other’ category mean under GOP primary results?

Answer: (From commenter SGS) Not all delegates are allocated to the candidates based on the states’ primaries. There are about 400 delegates (out of about 2000s) that are reserved to the Republican “insiders”, like state and national RNC leaders. They normally do not declare who they are in favor of until the party convention. But they can do so at any time.

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With Obama looking to suck a number of independents away from John McCain today, it’s of utmost important for Republicans to come out and vote for Mitt. With the leading Democratic candidate preaching change and unity, we need our own uniter, someone who inspires us to be better and to find solutions to problems. John McCain has been in the Senate for over two decades and has had his chance, but has proven to be more a divider than a uniter. With red states barely outnumbering blue states in 2000 and 2004, we’ll need the entire party to keep the White House.

McCain has a reputation as being difficult to get along with and, as was demonstrated in the debates, is sometimes downright nasty. He makes as many enemies as he does friends. He’s not a uniter, and that will become clear as the campaign progresses.

But today NH Republicans can take their party back from their Independent neighbors and pick Mitt as the candidate. Mitt’s conservative record on tax cuts, immigration, balancing the budget, family values and smaller government make Mitt the man who can unite the whole GOP. He’s been endorsed by Robert Bork because Mitt supports strict constructionist judges who’ll support the 2d amendment and avoid creating new legislation out of the Constitution. He’s been endorsed by the National Review because he’s the best overall candidate. I believe Mitt is also a contender to unite the country (just listen to the weekend’s debates–no one else kept their cool, stuck to issues or inspired like Mitt did), and the best counter-argument to Obama. Get out today and vote. And show the country the GOP’s approach with limited government and free market answers is still what the people want, and not Obama’s turn to the left.

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As I watched the NH primary coverage tonite and saw the video of Hillary tearing up as she talked about the stress of the campaign trail, I couldn’t help but reminisce about the wild ride that the Clinton’s have taken us all on during their time on the political stage.

I remember watching Bill Clinton address the Democratic Convention in 1988. I had heard the name several times, but at that time I had never heard him speak. I remember thinking, “So this is that Southern governor I have been hearing about.” He had a very average speaking style, and it seemed to me that he mostly just strung platitudes together and gave long, “meaningful” looks at his audience. One of the things that struck me about that speech was how Bill Clinton loved the sound of his own voice. He droned on and on and toward the end, the Democratic delegates were booing and heckling him! Did that cause him to bring the speech to a swift solution? No way. If the audience had eggs and tomatoes available, I am sure they would have flung them at the Governor.

Imagine my surprise, when four years later the Left, aided and abetted by the MSM, foisted this same Bill Clinton upon an unsuspecting public!

Draft dodging, “loathing the military”, smoking but “not inhaling”, trying to define “what ‘is’ is”, Gennifer Flowers, “don’t ask, don’t tell”, Janet Reno, firing cruise missiles at aspirin factories, Monica Lewinski, “I feel your pain”, impeachment, last minute pardons of a rogues’ gallery of campaign contributors and police characters, these are and will remain Bill Clinton’s legacy.

As we begun the campaign a year ago Hillary Clinton looked formidable. The heir apparent of the White House by virtue of the backing of the vaunted “Clinton Machine”, what then appeared to be virtually limitless cash,the darling of the Hollywood glitterati and the recipient of mostly glowing articles by the liberal press, it didn’t seem possible that anyone could snatch the brass ring from her hand. But that was then and this is now.

One year later the speculation has started to percolate up into the headlines that HRC may be contemplating withdrawing from the race if she gets blown out by O’bama in the NH primary. If these stories turn out to be true and she is forced to withdraw from the race, I will breath a sigh of relief, not because I take any personal pleasure in her situation, but only because I see a threat to the well being of this country thankfully receding.

On a more upbeat note, it was good to see Governor Romney dominate the debate at the FOX forum last night and to see the way the “dial group” was so dramatically converted after viewing the forum. Huckabee looked weak and evasive to me, McCain comes across as arrogant and mean spirited, Rudy and Fred weren’t much of a factor. So that leaves the only “full spectrum conservative” in the race, Gov. Romney, as the candidate best suited to bring change to Washington and to start the process of restoring conservative principles into the way we govern.

~~John Cronin~~

I know no safe depository of the ultimate powers of the society but the people themselves; and if we think them not enlightened enough to exercise their control with a wholesome discretion, the remedy is not to take it from them, but to inform their discretion.”

Thomas Jefferson: Letter to William Charles Jarvis, Sept. 28, 1820

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Human Events just named Rush Limbaugh the “Man of the Year.” They proclaim that

“His voice defined the conservative movement in 2007.”

But on his radio program today, Rush offered all conservatives a simple test anyone can use to determine the best conservative candidate in the 2008 Presidential Race. The test is this: Look at who the Mainstream Media attacks repeatedly and then look at who they “prop up.” The conservatives are the ones who will reap the most attacks. The phony conservatives will be “propped up” by the Mainstream Media in an effort to “break up the conservative coalition.”

Huckabee and McCain are conservative cut-outs that have been propped up by the MSM. There is little or no conservative substance to their messages. Any wins for these two are not definitive of the conservative movement.

Instead, look at who the MSM is trying to bring down. Look at whose doom is consistently prophesied. If one were to believe all the predictions of Romney’s imminent downfall, it would be amazing that he is still enough of a threat that they must still tout his coming destruction.

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Fox News’ commentary said Mitt had “hit a home run.”

Fox’s Frank Luntz said “With just two days to go, Mitt Romney hit a home run tonight.” Other key quotes about responses from Luntz’s focus group: “Mitt Romney consistently got the best responses throughout the evening…incredibly favorable.” “When Mitt Romney talked about where he stood on immigration, the dials shot through the roof.”

The overwhelming response in blogs is positive. Mitt really helped himself tonight.

From the National Review:

Kathryn Jean Lopez says:

“The fighter is out in him tonight. No one is going to call him a wimp tonight, that’s for sure. He’s taken initiative, from minute one. And he’s turned the tone of his campaign around. He’s letting Romney be Romney — the confident, forward-looking candidate with a conservative temperament he is — it was those qualities that first made me pay attention to him when he was in the statehouse. I think he’s being himself tonight. We saw him be himself during the religion speech. And we’re seeing it tonight. This Mitt is the Mitt we have to see everyday from hereon out. It took a while for him to be unleashed but I don’t think it’s too late by any stretch. Let Mitt be Mitt and Mitt might win.”

From Rich Lowry:

“Politics is a game of adjustments, and Romney adjusted to the debate from last night, realizing that he’d be under constant attack tonight and he’d better gird himself and go on offense. He spoke forcefully and put the case for himself as the reformist businessman in the best possible light. I think he basically dominated the first hour, and fell off a tab after that, but otherwise was truly excellent. His best performance yet, in very high pressure circumstances. His answers on taxes, job creation, and immigration were top notch … [I]f he somehow wins NH, tonight will be a big reason why.”

McCan’ts “Experience” Question; I.e., Why Not McCain?

McCain wants us to believe with 20+ years in Washington, and over the age of 80 at the end of a 2d term, he’d change his stripes and try to improve the system he’s helped construct and has benefited from for 2 1/2 decades. Sorry, but if he was serious about fixing something before he would have done it by now. And because of his age he’s a lame duck president on day 1. A nearly 80 year old with a history of a temper with his finger on the button? Quack quack. Others also noticed the McCain slam on Bush (the remark about governors). This is why McCain is NOT a republican candidate. I’ve heard one Senator say that if a secret poll were taken on the Senate floor, they’d nearly unanimously support Mitt over McCain, which McCain seems to acknowledge in his comment he hasn’t won any congeniality contests in the Senate. And he’s supposed to suddenly “change” and work with these people to get things done? GOP: IT’S NOT GOING TO HAPPEN. MCCAIN WILL CONTINUE TO DO WHAT HE’S DONE FOR THE PAST 24 YEARS.

Here’s another quote from Mark Levin tonight at the National Review in that regard:

“[C]ome on John McCain. You’re known in Washington as, well, very temperamental and holding grudges. Let’s not pretend you are Mr. Positive when, in fact, you are not.”

Expect mainstream republicans to reject this man, starting tomorrow in the AM radio shows when they call out his school-yard tactics with cohort Huckabee.

After Wyoming’s sweep by Mitt, McCain’s undignified attacks last night and Mitt’s performance tonight, expect Mitt’s poll numbers in NH to take a bounce upward. With the race being as tight as it is, Mitt’s performance tonight was big.

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Mitt just hands down won the NH forum and hopefully the Republican primary as well.

The “dial” analysis by Dr. Luntz shows Mitt in the 70-93 range. Did you see and hear the focus group’s reaction to Gov. Romney? He converted almost the whole room!

Way to knock the cover off the ball Gov. Romney!

~~John Cronin~~

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Taking the Silver in Iowa.

Like Mitt said, it’s not what we’d hoped but it’s still a great finish, and preparation for the ultimate gold. We need to keep things humming along. What can you do? Make sure you make your phone calls for Mitt (if you’re not already a volunteer, contact the campaign to find out how to become one). As I said yesterday, considering where the campaign’s been and where it’s going it’s no time to get concerned about one bump in the road. Here are some facts to keep in perspective:

Wyoming’s caucuses are tomorrow, and both Mitt and McCain have big appearances on the Sunday shows. As “Richard” posted on Politico, Mitt can actually move into first place in the delegate count depending on the showing in Wyoming, and could even retain that lead with as much as a solid 2d place showing in NH.

“Isn’t it interesting people are making fun of Wyoming. That’s like football fans saying they don’t care about field goals. They would just as soon pass them up. Well, Mitt isn’t going to pass anything up. Since not very many people are aware, it takes 1191 Delegates to WIN the republican nomination. So far Huck has 20, Romney 18, McCain and Thompson 3, Paul 2 and Giuliani 1. Wyoming has 14 delegates up for grabs, New Hampshire 14 and Michigan 30. So, because the media looks to promote certain states, it truly is the number of delegates available. By the way, Romney, Thompson and Paul are the only ones that have been to Wyoming so watch them snatch up the delegates….”

I’m not sure these numbers are right but they’re roughly consistent with what I’ve read elsewhere. Mitt being in first place for delegates after NH is more than we could have hoped for a few months ago, and that’s a very achievable goal. We all knew it would be a close race; now we need to pitch in to make it happen! A quick stat: 2 of the 5 brothers were at the Des Moines airport early this morning, and at least one was headed to Wyoming, so Wyoming is clearly going to be feeling the love.

Mitt’s Game of 3D Chess

I happened to find my way into a Q&A Kevin Madden was giving to reporters before Mitt’s appearance at the Sheraton last night. Here are a few shots:

Kevin may have the best tie I’ve seen so far in the campaign, even including Mitt. Try to get a good look.

Kevin told them that Mitt’s playing 3D chess versus his opponents’ checkers, pursuing a multi-front war while his opponents have largely focused on one state. And (using my words) this race is like the Tour de France: winning a particular stage isn’t the important thing, it’s standings at the end. In Lance’s seven tour wins, he won on average fewer than 3 stages per year (20 total stages in 7 wins).

Bring on NH!

McCain is Mitt’s main competition in NH as we all know. Mitt has a new ad, as does McCain. In his, McCain blatantly spins a couple half-quotes from Mitt to make false claims. In one of Mitt’s statements Mitt said foreign policy expertise is easy to find; you can go to the State Department to find someone versed in knowledge, but that expertise (like McCain’s) alone isn’t enough. But the ad twists the statement to say Mitt would rely on the State Department for leadership, which was the exact opposite of what was intended. We need to make sure we call him on this sort of false claim and twisted quotes. So much for John remaining above negative campaiging (as if he’d ever tried).

As a result, now would be a good time to reinforce Mitt’s leadership experience and executive successes (contrasted to McCain’s 20+ years leisurely creating laws after dispatching lackeys to do the research for him). We need to remind people of Mitt’s strengths and that he’s succeeded at nearly everything he’s touched. A few talking points:

1. He had the leadership to turn around the Olympics.

2. He had the leadership to turn around a collection of companies while at Bain, solving problems people before him couldn’t. Sound like a skill we could use in our President today?

3. He had the leadership and determination to keep all the campaign promises he made in Massachusetts, while working with a democratic legislature. By contrast a “maverick” has a hard time getting things done because they don’t tend to play well with others.

4. He had the leadership to organize and motivate volunteers to turn out more voters than expected in Iowa.

5. He showed grace and leadership last night in acknowledging Mike Huckabee’s success, but motivating and convincing the troops we’ll do better in New Hampshire.

6. He has shown the strength of character to think about solutions to problems before he implements them, but then to decisively execute on his plan.

7. He’s the only one that can represent the entire republican party, as the National Review pointed out in their endorsement. In looking at all the candidates, he has the best chance of winning it all, and if you listen carefully he is still the defacto front runner. All guns seem to be pointed at Mitt.

You heard it here first: if we can remind the people of NH what Mitt has accomplished, we will win in NH. People in NH know we need real leadership in Washington. A repackaging of the same old ideas and people just won’t cut it anymore. If there was anything clear in Iowa last night, change and effective leadership are what people are looking for. John McCain is a member of a Congress whose approval rating is abysmal. He has had his chance to be an agent of change as a Washington insider for the last 20+ years. If he hasn’t had shown the leadership yet to solve the problems we have in our society, how will he suddenly start showing leadership now as President? He’s had his chance. We need to tell Washington and Johnny Mac to lead, follow or get out of the way.

Last Thoughts About the Iowa Caucuses

My wife and I drove to a northern suburb of Des Moines last night and attended a caucus of about 130 people. The process, though less complicated than for the dems, was still fascinating. The republican leader (clearly an untrained volunteer from the local community) had an envelope of instructions on how to run the show, and was learning along with everyone else. I felt like I was watching pure democracy, with all its wrinkles. After getting organized, representatives of each campaign were given a chance to speak. When Rudy’s name came up someone shouted “Rudy who?,” generating guffaws. Statements were made on behalf of Huckabee, Fred and Mitt (this last made by yours truly). Votes were cast on yellow ballots made from quartered sheets of 8.5×11″ paper. Ballots were hand-collected and sorted into stacks for each candidate. Votes were then counted and re-counted, then telephoned into GOP headquarters. My wife noted a number of people changing their party affiliations at the door, confirming anecdotally what the national press has observed, that someone out there was driving new voters to turn out, we believe evangelicals.

The Post-Game Party

At the final party Doug Gross, Mitt and Ann re-enthused the crowd.

Here are some pictures:

Now off to bed so I can come back again tomorrow. It’s now after 3 a.m. central time, so I’ve been up about 23 hours straight. Keep it up everybody out there, we all know how much this country needs a man like Mitt Romney (for a reminder see Thomas Alan’s blog on this very site). One last bit of encouragement. Close your eyes and imagine Mitt raising his hand and taking the oath of office in January 2009. Now open those eyes and let’s get it done!

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…60% of the caucus voters were LDS, and Mitt only got 34% of the vote, what would the media story be?

A commenter on one of the Washington Post blogs made this point and I thought it was quite brilliant.

Turn Rich Lowry’s numbers around and you’d see something very interesting - if Utah was the first caucus and 60% of caucusers were Mormons and Mitt only got 1/3 of the vote and only won by 9 points, you’d say he lost. You’d say that even if his opponent had spent millions more. I hate to sound like a sore loser, but the media response doesn’t make sense to me. Given the favorable circumstances, I think Huckabee lost and Mitt won.

It doesn’t change the outcome, but it really brings out the media bias we are up against. (if you have the stomach for it, there’s many heated (and revealing) comments down the thread which make it eminently clear what else we are up against)

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