comMITTed to Romney!

Jim Geraghty over at NRO’s Campaign Spot has a quickie analysis of the state of the race following New Hampshire and Michigan finally ending the primary shuffling:

I think Iowa and New Hampshire are turning into these twin three-man races, with Mitt the only player in both. In the great state of Ethanolopolis, it’s Romney vs. the surging Huckabee and a question of whether Thompson performs respectably. Neither one of those guys is really playing in New Hampshire, and Giuliani and McCain aren’t really putting many eggs in their Iowa basket.

I think in the scenarios described by my Romney guy above, a close second is almost as good as a win in most cases. If Giuliani performs close to Romney in New Hampshire, it keeps him alive until Florida. I think Thompson would have to perform really badly for him not to be a player in South Carolina, and if he wins that, he’s still in it in Florida. McCain would have to perform really badly in New Hampshire to not have at least some shot in South Carolina.

One exception to my “close second” theory is Huckabee. He seems to be enjoying a well-timed surge, but unless he wins Iowa, he risks becoming John Podhoretz’s “Republican Guy Who Is Coming Out of Nowhere to Place a Surprising Second in Iowa,” a role JPod contends has been played in previous cycles by Pat Robertson, Pat Buchanan, and Steve Forbes. In other words, he gets one more news cycle of good press and then fades quickly.

Having said all that, if each win begets another bump in the polls, it’s not unthinkable to see Romney win Iowa, win Wyoming (for whatever that’s worth), win New Hampshire, win Michigan, win South Carolina by a hair, and then go into Florida with a very hot hand…

I disagree with him about three things:

1. Sen. Thompson can’t win at all. S. Carolina’s too far away from the start of the primary season for him to remain relevant without a 2nd place showing in Iowa as a minimum (which is unlikely).

2. Sen. McCain will have a hell of a time competing anywhere if he doesn’t win New Hampshire outright. He’s already in 3rd or 4th in S. Carolina.

3. No love for Nevada? I know it won’t be as important as S. Carolina, but it’s very possible we’ll have a split headline on 1/19. You can’t underestimate the minimizing effects (like that?) of that outcome.

As noted in the letter Geraghty posted, Gov. Romney and Giuliani are the only two candidates with realistic paths to the nomination.

~~~Thomas

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Wow, wouldn’t that be a great combination? William Safire predicted it on Meet the Press today. Jim Geraghty over at National Review is skeptical (as am I…I think I’d rather have General Petraeus getting the bad guys in Iraq than stumping across the country).

Still, would be pretty cool, yes?

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From Blog 4President dot ORG

National Review’s Jim Geraghty: “One of [Romney's] strongest performances…” (Jim Geraghty, “Everybody Was Good,” National Review’s Campaign Spot, National Review’s The Corner, Posted 10/21/07)

Powerline Blog’s Paul Mirengoff: “Romney was solid, as he generally is … Near the end of the debate, he finally launched into an attack on the Clinton administration’s ‘vacation from history’ foreign policy (‘we got the dividend but not the peace’). Attacks like that are guaranteed winners in these kinds of debates, and Romney needs to make them at every opportunity.” (Paul Mirengoff, “A Sleeping Giant Wakes Up,” Powerline Blog, Powerline Blog , Accessed 10/21/07)

· Geraghty: “[Romney had] great jabs at Hillary, and seemed to feed off the crowd’s energy.” (Jim Geraghty, “Everybody Was Good,” National Review’s Campaign Spot, The National Review, Posted 10/21/07)

· Geraghty: “Mitt leads the raucous crowd in rejecting Hillary as a potential commander-in-chief.” (Jim Geraghty, “How Do I Give You The Highlights?” National Review’s Campaign Spot, National Review, Posted 10/21/07)

NBC’s Chuck Todd: Romney was “red hot.” (Chuck Todd, “Quick Post-Debate Thoughts,” MSNBC’s First Read,

The Atlantic's Marc Ambinder: "As the Republicans debated who is more conservative tonight, two voices stood out: Mitt Romney's and Rudy Giuliani's." (Marc Ambinder, "The Republican Debate: First Take," The Atlantic Blog, The Atlantic Break, Posted 10/21/07)

The American Spectator’s Jennifer Rubin: “On marriage Romney gives a strong statement in favor of amendment.” (Jennifer Rubin, “Debate 2,” The American Spectator Blog, American Spectator Blog, Posted 10/21/07)

· Right Wing News’ John Hawkins: “Mitt is right about gay marriage. Activist judges are deliberately distorting the law to implement gay marriage…” (John Hawkins, “Debate Liveblogging,” Right Wing News, Right Wing News, Posted 10/21/07)

· Geraghty: “[Romney] makes a strong case on [gay marriage], citing the Massachusetts and Iowa state constitutions.” (Jim Geraghty, “After The Opening Brawl Among the Top Tier…,” National Review’s Campaign Spot, National Reviews’s Campaign Spot, Posted 10/21/07)

The Atlantic’s Marc Marinder: “[Romney's] best moment may have been when he said that an insurmountable problem like the health care crisis can, indeed, be solved. It wasn’t just a candidate saying he was optimistic; he showed how optimism, will and plod can be potent problem-solving forces.” (Marc Ambinder, “The Republican Debate: First Take,” The Atlantic Blog, The Atlantic Blog, Posted 10/21/07)

· The American Spectator’s John Tabin: “He had a target on his back during the health care section, and ably defended himself.” (John Tabin, “Candidate Scorecard,” AmSpec Blog, American Spectator Blog, Posted 10/21/07)

· Ambinder: “Say what you will about the guy: [Romney] expended political capital, he worked hard, and he did something meaningful to reform the health care system in his state. Very few candidates on either side can say that.” (Marc Ambinder, “It Took Romney Long Enough…” The Atlantic Blog, The Atlantic Blog, Posted 10/21/07)

· Ambinder: “But it stands out as an prime example — perhaps the ultimate example — of conservative governance. Romney worked hard at health care in Massachusetts; he worked with Democrats; he worked with Republicans; he wound up with a novel program that, while not perfect and not transferable to other states, stands out as a real accomplishment. Romney calls himself an executive and a manager; with health care, he executed and managed in real time.” (Marc Ambinder, “The Republican Debate: First Take,” The Atlantic Blog, The Atlantic Blog, Posted 10/21/07)

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