comMITTed to Romney!

Here are a few encouraging details from tonight’s contest, from the CBS News website:

According to CBS News exit polls, self-described Republicans made up 68 percent of the vote - and they supported Romney by a wide margin. Independents made up just 25 percent of the GOP primary vote today while just 7 percent were Democrats. In 2000, independents made up 35 percent of the vote while another 17 percent were Democrats.

The economy overwhelmingly topped the concerns of voters, with 55 percent of primary voters citing it as their top concern. The Iraq war ranked second, but lagged far behind. Just 17 percent said that was their top concern. Discussion of the economy dominated the Michigan contest in its closing days, as Romney sought to strike an optimistic tone about the future of a state which has seen some 76,000 jobs lost in the past year alone.

… Romney also won among late-deciding voters, indicating that his arguments may have won some supporters.

Takeaways? The GOP is supporting Mitt, and “it’s the economy, _______.”

Additional takeaways? Mitt sticking to his message seems very productive. Mitt gained a head of steam and connected with people, which he’ll need continue. Meanwhile McCain lost momentum as he had to defend his truth-distorting, sack of fibs mailer. In addition, earned media seems much better at conveying and building momentum than paid media.

And lest we forget, the big difference maker in Michigan was Mitt’s “no job left behind” theme, giving hope where the Washington insider offered only pessimism and job retraining. Now that Mitt’s found his stride I expect the good vibe and the connection he’s making with voters to continue.

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It may not be the big enchilada (that’s saved for Tuesday), but one of the reportedly most Republican counties in Michigan held a straw poll at a recent event and Mitt won going away. The results were admittedly not scientific, but they underscore what you’ve been reading here and on other sites: Mitt is the real Republican choice for President. See this report at the Detroit Free Press website. Voting cost $20 each and people could vote as many times as they wanted, but Mitt came away with 926 votes to McCain’s 388 and Huckabee’s 74. Mitt, Duncan Hunter and Senator Sam Brownback (representing McCain) were in attendance.

One woman said why she supports Mitt:

Geraldine Vruggink, a Romney supporter from Hudsonville, said she is attracted to [Mitt's] practical and business experience and to his “high morals.” If Romney is elected, people won’t have to worry about what is going on at the White House, she said.

In his remarks to the crowd of about 500, Romney stressed his Michigan roots and his appreciation for the special role he said the state plays in the national economy. Michigan’s loss of jobs and recession are indications that Washington has lost the ability to solve problems, he said.”

Hopefully this is just a taste of what’s to come!!!

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Thanks to John Cronin for the current delegate count, which Mitt leads. But let’s also try this with an Olympics theme. USA! USA!

Current medal count on the GOP 2008 Winter Games, in order:

Mitt: 1 gold (WY), 2 silvers (IA, NH)
Huck: 1 gold (IA), 1 bronze (NH)
McCain: 1 gold (NH)

Mitt also leads the popular vote counting only IA and NH (couldn’t find the info for WY, which should add significantly to his lead). While McCain’s win is impressive for his comeback from the dead, he’ll start getting real scrutiny once the charm wears off. I find it hard to anoint him the GOP nominee just yet with just one win under his belt, particularly with the name recognition in NH and having carried it decisively in 2000. I believe his margin of victory tonight was by less than he beat GW back then.

USA! USA!

Lessons Learned?

If I had to cite lessons learned, I’d focus on the last few days in NH where I think Mitt was making a rebound before time ran out. Here is my sense as a true lay observer:

1. The debates helped. Why? Piling on didn’t look good for John, even though he came out the victor tonight. And in the 2d debate the press was uniformly positive, I think because Mitt stayed on his message. People seem to want to connect with him, and he succeeded in that 2d debate.

2. Mitt seemed to “find his voice” (to use his term). Again he started connecting with people. Mitt just seems too good to be true to some. It seems the best way to combat that is to let them get to know you personally; put yourself out there and stir real emotion (remaining presidential, of course).

3. As Mitt stayed on message about change and fixing Washington, people seemed to see someone they could vote for, instead of someone they’re less likely to vote against.

4. The main stream media is mostly just looking for a story. That may not sound like a revelation, but I personally don’t think the press is always biased (okay, Jonathan Martin at the Politico seems to be). The focus just goes to the “story”: Obama’s charisma, John McCain’s resurrection, Hillary’s tears; etc. Mitt needs to find a positive story (perhaps a decisive win in Michigan!) for them to report on. Comebacks seem to attract attention (McCain has had one, Huckabee has had one, Obama has had one, Clinton has had one–now it’s our turn).

Bottom line from the above: I think Mitt’s got a great, positive message he can continue to deliver and I’d encourage him to get out there and deliver it passionately, like we know he can. There’s a reason the National Review chose him: his positions on all the issues, which I know he believes in. And we shouldn’t necessarily look for any breaks from the media, nor take it too personally if they’re negative. It’s kind of like the refs in a sports contest: you can’t complain about them, you just have to play through it and give them something good to talk about.

The Independent Factor

The thought was Independents would pile on for Obama, but perhaps they went to McCain instead, thinking Obama had it in the bag. Here’s a quote from CNN tonight:

exit polls showed 37 percent of those who cast a Republican ballot Tuesday identified themselves as independents, and McCain got the votes of 39 percent of them, compared with 27 percent for former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, who finished second Tuesday. Romney and McCain were almost even among those who identified themselves as Republicans, with 33 and 34 percent, respectively”

While it’s clear McCain got more of them, I wonder where the rest went (only 66% of Independents voting Republican are accounted for above). In any event one final takeaway from this is not to get too cocky about Obama’s ability to draw Independents, or to even beat Hillary. Some good news in that is that the Democratic race may be as lengthy as the GOP race. Some had said a long fight in the GOP after the Dems had already anointed their candidate would favor the Democrats. Even more good news–Republican turnout was quite high in NH as well, meaning the GOP is paying attention, as we all know they should. And to repeat, with all the record turnout, MITT LEADS THE POPULAR VOTE.

USA! USA!

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With Obama looking to suck a number of independents away from John McCain today, it’s of utmost important for Republicans to come out and vote for Mitt. With the leading Democratic candidate preaching change and unity, we need our own uniter, someone who inspires us to be better and to find solutions to problems. John McCain has been in the Senate for over two decades and has had his chance, but has proven to be more a divider than a uniter. With red states barely outnumbering blue states in 2000 and 2004, we’ll need the entire party to keep the White House.

McCain has a reputation as being difficult to get along with and, as was demonstrated in the debates, is sometimes downright nasty. He makes as many enemies as he does friends. He’s not a uniter, and that will become clear as the campaign progresses.

But today NH Republicans can take their party back from their Independent neighbors and pick Mitt as the candidate. Mitt’s conservative record on tax cuts, immigration, balancing the budget, family values and smaller government make Mitt the man who can unite the whole GOP. He’s been endorsed by Robert Bork because Mitt supports strict constructionist judges who’ll support the 2d amendment and avoid creating new legislation out of the Constitution. He’s been endorsed by the National Review because he’s the best overall candidate. I believe Mitt is also a contender to unite the country (just listen to the weekend’s debates–no one else kept their cool, stuck to issues or inspired like Mitt did), and the best counter-argument to Obama. Get out today and vote. And show the country the GOP’s approach with limited government and free market answers is still what the people want, and not Obama’s turn to the left.

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There have been many great articles about the power of Independent voters in New Hampshire. In their primary, they can either vote Democrat or Republican. The theory goes that Romney has a pretty solid, loyal base of supporters that will show up and vote. McCain’s support in NH comes mainly from Independents. If Independents decide that it is highly likely that Clinton will win for the Dems, that helps McCain as most of the Independents will use their power to vote for McCain (Republican). The opposite could happen as well.

To read this entire article online, click here:

McCain losing votes to Obama in N.H. — Nonaligned voters in New Hampshire have their pick of parties — This time around, they lean toward a Democrat — By Maeve Reston and Doyle McManus, Los Angeles Times Staff Writers — December 30, 2007

“This big group in the middle . . . has a chance to really transform the election,” said Tom Rath, a veteran New Hampshire Republican strategist who is advising former Gov. Mitt Romney (R-Mass.). Describing the efforts to woo independents, he added: “It’s more like a general election here.”

If Obama bests national front runner Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.), he probably will owe his New Hampshire victory to independents, a Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll suggested last week.

Among the state’s registered Democrats, the survey found Clinton led Obama, 35% to 28%. But among independents who plan to vote in the Democratic primary, Obama led, 37% to 24% — turning the contest into a virtual tie.

And Obama’s strength among independents now looms as a problem for McCain.

The Republican’s campaign, after struggling mightily this year, has regained some of its footing and is hoping a New Hampshire win could propel him to success in later primaries. But he may fall short in the Granite State, in part because so many independents are choosing Obama.

The Times/Bloomberg poll found that among New Hampshire independents who have chosen the party primary in which they will cast a ballot, 61% said they planned to vote in the Democratic race, 39% in the GOP contest. And among those who have decided whom they will support, more than twice as many said they planned to back Obama, compared to McCain.

Obama and McCain, as they have courted New Hampshire independents of late, are acutely aware that they are competing not only with rivals in their own parties, but with each other.

Based on overall appeal, I am guessing that Obama is much more appealing as a charismatic communicator by comparison to McCain.

McCain told reporters after the event that he sensed “some movement” among independents, but acknowledged that he was not sure whether it was “wishful thinking or reality.”

In conversations with voters, it is clear that McCain’s strong support for an open-ended commitment of U.S. troops to Iraq has alienated some independents.

She backs Obama, saying he’s “younger, he’s still more positive and he hasn’t been there so long that he’s bitter or negative.”

As much as I want Senator Clinton to eventually win the Dem nomination to galvanize every last Republican to vote in the General, I want Obama to seem like he has a strong chance when New Hampshire goes to vote. If it appears that Clinton is not “inevitable” by New Hampshire, it is highly likely Independents will show up in strength to vote for Obama, thereby drastically cutting McCain’s chances. Go Obama!

~ Vic

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