comMITTed to Romney!

Hat Tip to Ranzel for bringing this excellent analysis to our attention. Mitt Romney is nailing down the Reagan coalition.

NEW YORK TIMES

Tags: Florida, John McCain, Mitt Romney

Does Mitt Romney have a victory to cling to in Florida? Joshua Trevino, vice president for public policy at San Francisco’s Pacific Research Institute (and one of the founders of the conservative blog RedState), breaks down the numbers on his personal blog.

“Mitt Romney is in a bad way,” Trevino writes. “He blew through $10 million in Iowa and lost; and outspent McCain eight to one in Florida, and lost that too. But for all this, Mitt Romney is not done yet and the reason lies in the breakdown of this evening’s Florida vote.” He continues:

CNN has the exit-poll numbers, and they reveal some surprising things:

* Romney won pro-lifers.
* Romney won the mainstream religious. (Huckabee won the very religious ­ less than one-fifth of the pool.)
* Romney won the Protestants.
* Romney tied Huckabee with Evangelicals.
* Romney won the pro-GWB voters.
* Romney is the primary second choice of Giuliani voters, Thompson voters …. and McCain voters.
* Romney won the immigration hard-liners.
* Romney won the upper-middle class, earning between $100,000 and $200,000 annually.
* Romney won the terrorism-oriented voters.
* Romney won the self-identified conservatives and the self-identified very conservative.
* Romney won the values-oriented voters.
* Romney won the white voters.
* Romney won the tax-cutting voters.

In short, Mitt Romney won the Republican Party’s idea of itself ­ and that, too, is a big deal. If you’re white, Protestant, anti-abortion, go to church on Sundays, think well of the President, want lower taxes, hate terrorists, make a good living, want to do something about immigration, and live in Florida, chances are you voted Romney. The question before Florida was whether McCain could win a closed Republican race, and now we know he can. The question now is whether he can win conservatives ­ and in Florida, he did not.

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Let’s keep our fingers crossed.

Update: With 1% reporting (long way to go, obviously), McCain is way out in front and Mitt has a secure 3rd-place position (leads by 6%–18% to 12% )over Fred.

Update II: What does this do to guaranteed-a-win Huckabee and 4th-place Fred?

Update III: With 28% reporting Fred in 3rd by 497 votes. This will be tight.

Update IV: I was about to type Mitt was down by ~2000 (62% reporting), but after refreshing the page Mitt is only down by 900 (with 65% reporting). I’d love to hold that bronze medal.

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Congratulations to Governor Romney and his campaign team on a great win in Michigan tonight! As they say down South, he gave the competition a “thumpin’.”

It will be fascinating to analyze the exit polls to see just what the dynamics of the voting indicates. One thing that jumped out of the stats I saw was that among Catholics who go to church weekly, 41% voted for Gov. Romney. So much for Pastor Mike’s attempt to divide and conquer.

Here is the updated delegate count. MSM pundits, pay very close attention to these numbers. Try to keep them in mind as you sit down at your desk and place your fingers on your computer’s keyboard.

These numbers should be the reason why you should exercise a healthy discipline with yourself if you are tempted to write another column or blog calling on Gov. Romney to withdraw from the race.

The reason that Gov. Romney has not taken your advise is because HE IS WINNING!!

Romney…………42

Hunter……………1

~~John Cronin~~

“For of those to whom much is given, much is required. And when at some future date the high court of history sits in judgment on each of us, recording whether in our brief span of service we fulfilled our responsibilities to the state, our success or failure, in whatever office we hold, we will be measured by the answer to four questions: First, were we truly men of courage…..Second, were we truly men of judgment…..Third, were we truly men of integrity…..Finally, were we truly men of dedication?

We observe today not a victory of party but a celebration of freedom, symbolizing an end as well as a beginning, signifying renewal as well as change.”

John Fitzgerald Kennedy, Inaugural Address, Jan. 20, 1961

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Following are results of a CNN exit poll conducted in New Hampshire Tuesday among 1,520 voters. Though these results reflect the fact that the majority of voters chose McCain and Romney, there are some very interesting differences, especially where Romney ended ahead of the winner, McCain:

Republican Voters (”Vote by party ID” — excludes independents) chose:

MR — 35%
JM — 34%
MH — 13%
RG — 10%
.
.
All voters chose their candidate as the “Strongest Leader” — This measures the strength of the voters’ choice (in other words, which candidate got the most votes in this category by comparison to the others?):

MR — 86%
MH — 84%
JM — 81%
RG — 55%
.
.
Voters of New Hampshire that strongly oppose civil unions:

MR — 37%
JM — 32%
MH — 11%
RG — 6%
.
.
Very worried about Terrorism:

MR — 39%
JM — 33%
MH — 12%
RG — 10%
.
.
Voters that think the new President should be more conservative than President Bush:

MR — 35%
JM — 31%
MH — 13%
RP — 10%
.
.
The following result was stunning to me. John McCain, the military man came in third! Even McCain supporters are less sold on McCain by comparison to the other voters. And Giuliani 4th at 58%? What about his “9/11″ credentials?
All voters chose their candidate as the “Best Commander in Chief” — This measures the strength of the voters’ choice (in other words, which candidate got the most votes in this category by comparison to the others?):

MR — 94%
MH — 89%
JM — 78%
RG — 58%
.
.
Conservative Voters chose:

MR — 38%
JM — 30%
MH — 12%
RG — 8%
.
.

Check the gap here between Governors Romney and Huckabee:

Very Conservative Voters chose:

MR — 43%
MH — 19%
JM — 18%
RP — 7%
.
.
Voters that think this candidate shares their values:

MR — 38%
MH — 22%
JM — 16%
RP — 12%

See link in the opening paragraph for many more results. These are but few of many very interesting numbers. Governor Romney was the strongest candidate in many of the voters’ minds.

~ Vic

SMALL DOLLARS COUNT BIG — Please Contribute Here to Governor Romney’s Campaign

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