comMITTed to Romney!

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Having read just about every major article that has come out about Rudy Giuliani this year, I have always been surprised by how poorly RG has capitalized on his enormously broad name recognition. Clearly, he has been in first position in the polls for months based largely on his celebrity. Proof? Just look at Fred Thompson. Those in the know in politics, and the average American who does pay attention to the race, have mostly diminished FT’s chances based on his underwhelming campaign start over several weeks and yet he still polls very high nationally. What does this tell us? There is a direct correlation between name recognition and poll ranking. Though polls are not completely simplistic, depending on the way questions are posed, they do reflect what a wide selection of people know. Most Americans are not paying attention and what they know are the faces and names of RG and FT.

I believe this Wall Street Journal article exposes several weaknesses in RG’s campaign and reveals a rather presumptive attitude that his staff seems to have. Namely, that the polls cannot lie and therefore “I must be as good as I think I am in South Carolina….”

Lastly, what has RG done with his name recognition? For the most part, he has really done nothing with it. For the most part, his fundraising for just the primaries has lagged GMR’s. His endorsements among Evangelical leaders is non-existent. It is widely known that his organizational strength is weak by comparison to GMR’s. And as you can see from this article, his marketing capacity and organization are amateurish at best.

The Wall Street Journal article is by Michael M. Phillips, page A4 in the print edition of October 22nd (to read the entire article, go to the bottom of this post and click the link) — [emphasis is mine]:

It’s pretty frustrating being Rudy Giuliani’s man in what may well be the most conservative county in one of the most conservative states in the Union.

Statewide, Mr. Giuliani is doing surprisingly well in South Carolina. Most polls show him tied for the lead in the Republican nominating contest with former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson, the South’s favorite son in the race.

Mr. Giuliani’s support seems strongest on the less-conservative coast. His political history of supporting abortion rights, gay civil unions and gun control, along with his personal history of infidelity and divorce, make him a tough sell among the Bible-believing folk of Greenville County, which accounts for one in 10 of the state’s Republican primary voters.

Greenville is a particularly stark example of the challenge Mr. Giuliani faces nationwide in his quest to lead the party. Over the weekend, he confronted it directly with a speech to a convention of religious and social conservatives in Washington, telling the “Values Voters Summit” that he came “with an open mind and an open heart, and all I ask is that you do the same.”

 

The results were mixed. The audience gave him a relatively warm reception. But in a straw poll of nearly 6,000 Family Research Council members, Mr. Giuliani placed eighth of nine candidates, with less than 2% of the vote.

 

So Mr. Jones was quick to volunteer after Mr. Giuliani declared his candidacy earlier this year. It hasn’t been easy — and sometimes the campaign itself seems to make things tougher.

When Mr. Giuliani spoke at the county Republican Party convention this spring, he declined to buy a $250 full-page ad in the program, even though former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney did so. “Giuliani’s own campaign didn’t see the value in purchasing an ad in the convention program,” says county Republican chairman Samuel Harms, still cross about the slight. To soothe bruised feelings, Mr. Jones paid for a half-page ad himself. At the convention, Mr. Romney won a delegates’ straw poll; Mr. Giuliani came in a distant fourth.

Mr. Giuliani came through town earlier this month for a brief public meet-and-greet at a local coffee shop. Perhaps 100 people showed up. Inside, Mr. Jones ran into Doug Wavle, who represents Greenville on the state Republican executive committee. Mr. Wavle describes the county as “Bible-believing” and predicts peace won’t come to the Middle East until “the Lord Jesus Christ returns to Earth.” Mr. Giuliani, he says, doesn’t meet the strict moral standards he and his neighbors set. “I’m here just to be a good host,” Mr. Wavle told Mr. Jones. “This is not my candidate, and you know why.”

Asked during the event how well he’d do among the local social conservatives, Mr. Giuliani pointed to polls that rank him high among Evangelical voters. Mr. Giuliani is betting that Sept. 11 caused a fundamental shift in the party, leaving Republicans who once have voted on social issues willing to support a moderate candidate strong on national defense.

“The big, surprising news is how strong a candidate I am in South Carolina,” Mr. Giuliani told the crowd.

But the Republicans of Greenville County seem particularly resistant to his message. “Americans have become far more accepting of the stances which Giuliani has carried forth,” says Frank S. Page, pastor of First Baptist Church in nearby Taylors and president of the national Southern Baptist Convention. “That being said, I do believe in Greenville County he will face serious opposition.”

Mr. Jones says poor organization is also hurting Mr. Giuliani here. For months he has been attending Republican functions, handing out campaign literature that he has photocopied himself and looking enviously at the glossy brochures, stickers and DVDs at the Romney table.

Earlier this month, Ryan Meerstein, the state campaign director, finally sent him 10 Giuliani buttons and a small packet of brochures. “I’ve been telling Ryan — send us the ones on abortion, the ones on gun control and the ones on health care,” Mr. Jones said. “A lot of people here have questions about those.”

Mr. Jones brought a few buttons to the coffee-shop event, where a campaign official advised him to “keep those for the hard-core people — we’ve got stickers for everyone else.” That evening, Mr. Jones went to the $15-a-head barbecue for the Upstate Republican Women’s Club. He chatted with Bob Taylor, dean of the college of arts and sciences at Bob Jones University, a conservative Christian school in Greenville. Mr. Taylor told Mr. Jones bluntly that if Mr. Giuliani wins the nomination, he might not vote for him — and he wouldn’t be the only one to abandon the party.

“I’ve got a tough row to hoe,” Mr. Jones said on the drive home. “There’s no doubt about it.”

I don’t have time to provide the analysis of Giuliani’s financial situation including funds in the bank, burn rate, and limited ability to raise money, but suffice to say that when he has to step it up to compete with Romney head on, he will begin to suck air. His terrible strategy to surrender the Ames Straw Poll to Gov. Romney in August places him in a lousy position in the Iowa caucus causing him to ramp up his office space and staff in Iowa to compete for third or fourth place in the caucus — AT BEST. Effectively, RG is going to end up spending far more money in Iowa than he would have had he competed in the ASP in August, in the first place; and for what? Just so that he does not come in last place!

I sure hope that RG continues to take a presumptuous approach in South Carolina and that he believes he is in the safe lead of number one in the polls. Then it will be a far better surprise when GMR eats his lunch in the SC primary. But if he wakes up to the reality to learn that South Carolinians may are not lining up for him as he thought, he will then have to expend large sums of money to compete with GMR. Either way, it is good for GMR overall.

~ Vic

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This is REALLY big news.

Maybe it’s signaling something…

Michael M. Phillips reports on the presidential race.

A top official at Bob Jones University, the Evangelical Christian school with a history of anti-Mormon rhetoric, plans to throw his weight behind Mormon presidential hopeful Mitt Romney.

Robert R. Taylor, dean of the university’s college of arts and sciences, said he believes the former Massachusetts governor is the only Republican candidate who both stands a chance of winning the White House and will reliably implement the anti-abortion, antigay marriage, pro-gun agenda of Christian conservatives. (See a related post on Romney.)

“The fact that I’m seen as a Religious Right person would hopefully get others to step out for him,” Taylor said in an interview in Greenville, S.C., the university’s hometown.

Taylor’s endorsement, which he said he plans to announce in the near future, marks a stunning move for such a high-placed academic at Bob Jones University. In 2000, Bob Jones III, then president of the university, wrote a public letter that referred to Mormonism and Catholicism as “cults which call themselves Christian.”

Taylor acknowledged that endorsing a Mormon for president risked alienating the university’s conservative donors and alumni. But, he said, “we’re not electing a pastor — we’re electing a president.”

At a Greenville Republican fund-raiser last week, one of Taylor’s former students, now a field operative for former Sen. Fred Thompson of Tennessee, told Taylor she was worried that his stance would divide the university and open the school up to outside criticism.

But Taylor isn’t impressed with Thompson’s performance on the campaign trail. “I just don’t see the energy there,” he said. Taylor argued that the socially moderate positions of former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, the national front-runner, are far out of sync with those of Christian conservatives.

During the 2000 campaign, then-candidate George W. Bush drew sharp criticism for delivering a speech at Bob Jones University and failing to condemn its ban on interracial dating among students. The university lifted the prohibition shortly afterwards amid a rash of bad publicity.

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