TO ALL SUPER TUESDAY VOTERS…. |
….. PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE remember this before voting :
A vote for Huckabee is a vote for McCain, so if YOU TOO do not want to see McCain become the Republican RINO-ree, vote Mitt Romney on Tuesday.
That is all.
***Support comMITTed to Romney by visiting our sponsors***
Florida Trending Romney! |
Polls are very interesting, but it’s hard to get an idea of what is going on within certain polls. I much prefer to look at the TRENDLINE WITHIN certain polls. This way, its very easy to see who has the MOMENTUM within a poll and who is losing steam. I do this, because, each polling organization has a certain set of parameters and it does not change poll to poll.
With that said, let’s take a look at 3 big polling outfits who have been polling FL since Jan 1.
Insider Advantage (5 polls taken from 1/1 - 1/25)
: Romney -6, Even, Romney +6, Romney -1, Even.
Survey USA (4 polls taken from 1/1 - 1/25)
: Romney -10, Romney -7, Romney -6, Romney -2
Rasmussen (3 polls from 1/1 - 1/25)
: Romney -1, Romney +5, Romney +4.
So, what it looks like to me is Romney was behind in early Jan..however as of late he has made a surge and is leading in 2 out of 3 polls and DEFINITLY has the momentum to overtake McCain.
Couple this with the intrade #’s showing Romney at 60% and McCain at 35% to win FL…and I think we have the recipe for a Romney Florida Win.
I think the McCain camp knows this also, as they must have gotten internals that show Mitt is cleaning the floor with them with the economic issue. This is why McCain is attacking Romney today about the Economy.
Bad bad move on team McCain’s part, as this is Romney’s strong suit.
It feels much much like Michigan did 4 days before their primary
Romney 27%
McCain 23%
Onward and upward. Godspeed, Mr Romney.
Florida of ‘08 the South Carolina of old ? |
It is looking increasingly obvious to me that FLORIDA may in fact be the deciding primary state in 2008, the same way South Carolina has been in the past. The moving up of the primary dates has actually INCREASED the importance of the early states.
New Rasmussen Poll out today in FL has McCain at 18% and Romney, Rudy, and Huckabee are all within 2%.
Florida is certainly up for play, and any Jeb / Crist endorsement could help Romney over the top in FL.
Romney, if he wins MI…should go to NV and forget SC. NV has more delegates, and a win in NV would help to ease the loss in SC seeing as they are both on the same day. SC will be Huck and McCain battling it out. Then, Romney has 10 days to make his case in FL.
Best case scenario for Romney - Wins in MI, NV, and 3rd in SC. A Huck win in SC knocks McCain out, then it comes down to Rudy / Romney / Huck in Florida.
Rudy is center, Huck is right, Romney is center right…and THE alternative to both.
A possible Jeb/Crist endorsement may push him over the top, and if Romney wins FL he wins the nomination IMO.
We shall see…..
Bloggers Official Predictions! |
Well team, here we have it. Less than 48 hours to go before the Hawkeye Cauci and the start of the 2008 voting, and there are still so many questions yet to be answered. Since June of 2005, all of us have blogged….talked….posted…..written….and most importantly, INTERACTED with each other and the viewing public about who we feel is the best man for job of President, Mitt Romney.
Some of us are political junkies, some of us have some knowledge of the events, and even some of us are novices who are learning with every new post put up. So, I want to gather ALL of us up and make our OFFICIAL PREDICTION of what we think is going to happen in the IA caucus, slated for Thursday night, and onwards. The blogger who comes closest to what actually happens will earn him/herself a crown that I got from a local Burger King recently 
Here’s how I think it will shake out :
Mitt Romney, during the summer, had a big lead over anyone in IA. Huckabee’s #s then started to rise due to his “charm” and sharing religious views with many in IA. Also, he can thank Thompson’s ineptness and Giuliani’s fade for getting some of their voters. However, Huckabee peaked about 2 weeks too soon. His policy positions and record could not stand up to the laser beam scrutiny that he was sure to get. Couple this with his obvious lack of knowledge on specific issues and general lack of a concise campaign, his numbers have started to fall.
People were dating Huckabee, but they will marry Romney.
The old addage goes, “there are 3 tickets out of Iowa”. Well then, here’s how it will come back:
ROMNEY : 29%
Huckabee : 25%
McCain : 12%
Romney then moves on to New Hampshire, where Huckabee isn’t viable. McCain is his main opposition here. Being in a virtual tie, Romney’s win in Iowa is enough to seal the deal and give New Hampshire to Romney. “2 tickets out of Iowa” are :
ROMNEY : 32%
McCain : 28%
This leaves Gov. Romney in a very strong position. Wyoming will go Romney, and NV will as well. Michigan is Romney territory, and goes Romney.
This leads us to South Carolina. I feel if Romney wins SC, he wins the nomination. It remains to be seen if Huckabee has enough $ to last to SC. Thompson may even drop out before SC and throw his weight to McCain. Romney’s main rival in SC I feel will be Thompson, and given Thompson really hasn’t been competitve at all up to SC…..that tips SC into the Romney camp.
Giuliani made a huge mistake trying to wait until FL, as he will have NO momentum to win there if the above scenario unfolds. He may win a few states due to name recognition, however not enough to derail Romney overall.
Romney will win the Republican Nomination, to face off vs Hillary Clinton in the General Election. Hillary will choose Evan Bayh( D-IND) as her running mate and Romney will choose Jim DeMint (R-SC). “Mitt Mint’s” will be all the rage on the campaign trail Hillary is looking for a moderate midwesterner in hopes of plucking some red states, and Romney will choose a religious southerner who will serve to bring evangelicals more into the fold, as well as balance any percieved “northeastern liberal” slant Hillary will try to pin on him.
The election will come down to……….appropriately enough……….Michigan. Michigan’s 17 electorial votes will be the deciding factor in the race, and Romney’s family ties here are the reason. Michigan needs some new, good, Republican leadership to get them out of their funk, and Romney promises and will deliver.
Romney wins the election, 275 - 263 electorial votes. 52% - 46% in the national vote..
I would love to hear EVERYONE ELSE’S predictions on how the race will end!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Iowa Trendlines Now Favor Romney! |
Polls are necessary evils in politics. They are used to try and gauge interest for a particular topic, and they are OFTEN wrong. Polls can be distorted to give a particular result, etc. What can not be denied, however, is a trendline. A trendline is basically the same as “momentum”. If you are seen having a rising trendline, things look good. A falling one, not so good.
Iowa is a very tough region to poll, hence why we’ve seen polls all over the place this last week or so. Back in 2000, at this point in the race, Howard Dean looked to be a sure fire winner. He came in 3rd. So, while ANYthing is possible in politics…..momentum is something that is KEY to have and I believe the data below will reinforce this.
What I did was take the last 6 major polls conducted after the Christmas break, where Iowan’s were making their final choices and settling in on who their choice for President will be. In these polls, like I said…the numbers were all over the map….but the MOMENTUM looks to be clearly in Gov. Romneys favor. Take a look :
These polls ( Quad City Times, Strategic Vision, Mason-Dixon, ARG, Zogby, MSNBC) show either Gov. Huckabee or Gov Romney in the lead. However, take a look at the graphic above. CLEARLY Gov. Romney is on the rise and Gov. Huckabee is on the fall…..
Like I have been saying for a month now, Gov Huckabee peaked too soon. Even some of his own people are saying they peaked “2 weeks early”. This has given opposition and the media time to research his true policies and positions and make sure it’s known out there just what Huckabeee stands for.
In my opinion, Romney will win Iowa by 4-5% on caucus night. Not only is Huckabee bleeding from constant hits on his record, Gov. Romney has far far superior organization in Iowa and that can make up a 3-4% difference in getting your voters out to caucus. People were dating Huckabee, but in the end will marry Romney.
What this says to me is….Gov Romney will be our nominee and all of the hard work will have paid off. He’ll stave off McCain in NH, win WY and MI, and have enough momentum to take SC and if he does that…..he will walk to the nomination.
Alot can happen in 5 days, but I am really really liking our chances…..
Sioux City Journal endorses Romney! |
Sioux City Journal Endorses Romney!
Conservative Western IA newspaper the Sioux City Journal endorses Mitt Romney for President. This newspaper lies in the heart of evangelical Huckabee land, and it is a very strong indicator that the Huckaboom is in full Huckaburst mode……
MITCH: Hello, I’m Mitch Pugh, editor of the Sioux City Journal.
MIKE: I’m Michael Gors, editorial page editor.
Today we’re announcing our endorsements for the Jan. 3 Iowa Caucuses. We will endorse one Republican and one Democratic candidate for president.
MITCH: As part of this process, we spent roughly one hour with each of the major candidates in each party who agreed to meet with our editorial board. We also studied the candidates’ position statements and monitored their performance on the campaign trail.
MIKE: We sought to identify the two candidates we feel best combine a new voice with a strong vision of the future on key issues facing the country. Also, we chose candidates we feel possess integrity, who can lead, who can forge consensus and who will run positive, issue-oriented campaigns.
MITCH: We believe the two candidates we have endorsed have a unique ability to inspire and motivate our country to meet the significant challenges we face.
VIDEO OF BARACK OBAMA WITH VOICE OVER
VOICE OVER: Barack Obama is the Democratic candidate who best understands this critical moment in our nation’s history. He is equipped to bring a fractured people together and possesses the gifts to move us forward, united with a common mission.
That is why we are endorsing the U.S. Senator from Illinois in the Jan. 3 Iowa Caucuses.
Obama is a gifted orator. Yet, his skills extend beyond the stage of political theater. He has demonstrated a deep understanding of the challenges, home and abroad, our next president must confront. His record in Congress and the Illinois state senate indicates he has the ability to reach out to Republican and independents to identify sound, bi-partisan solutions and take on special interests.
VIDEO OF MITT ROMNEY WITH VOICE OVER
VOICE OVER: From the Republican field, the Sioux City Journal endorses Mitt Romney. Romney combines an outsider’s new face with a proven track record of success in both the private and public sectors.
As a businessman, the president and chief executive officer of the 2002 Winter Olympics in Salt Lake City and governor of Massachusetts, he has demonstrated an ability to bring people together and bridge partisan divides, organize, mobilize and motivate in order to solve problems. In short, he combines an engaging personality with the leadership qualities necessary to inspire others to follow him.
Let’s be honest, a candidate for president can prepare volumes of detailed ideas, but if he or she is a polarizing figure within the halls of Congress or devoid of the personal traits necessary to get Americans to listen and act, those plans don’t have a chance of success.
BACK TO MITCH AND MIKE
MIKE: We hope our endorsements will serve as one useful tool in helping you make a decision on Jan. 3. To learn more about all of the candidates, please visit siouxcityjournal.com/elections2008.
MITCH: You can read our full endorsements by going to siouxcityjournal.com Sunday or by reading your Sunday Journal.
Happy holidays.
Iowa Hucka-BURST happening? |
Huckabee is coming back down to earth folks…..Iowa will go ROMNEY!
From Rasmussen
When Mike Huckabee first began to gain ground in the race for the Republican Presidential nomination, many dismissed him. Then, pundits began analyzing which other candidate might benefit from the Huckaboom. Finally, people began treating Huckabee as if he was a candidate with a serious chance of winning the nomination.
That’s when the other candidates for the GOP nomination began pushing back, hard. Over the past week, Iowa voters have learned a lot about Mike Huckabee and not all of it has been flattering. Favorable opinions of Huckabee have dropped from 81% to 67% over the past week and the Huckabee tide has receded a bit. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Iowa’s Likely Caucus Participants shows that Huckabee and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney are now essentially tied for the lead in the state that will vote first in 2008.
It’s now Huckabee 28%, Romney 27%, and the man endorsed by the Des Moines Register, John McCain, in third at 14%. No other Republican candidate reaches double digits. Before the attacks on Huckabee’s record began to have an impact, the former Arkansas Governor enjoyed a double digit lead in the previous Rasmussen Reports poll. The current results place Huckabee at the same level of support that he had in late November, when he first moved ahead of Romney.
This is the second Rasmussen Reports poll released this week to show Huckabee losing his lead and falling back into a tie with Romney. In South Carolina, both Huckabee and Romney now earn 33% of the vote. Earlier in the month, Huckabee had opened up a seven point lead. However, while the Huckabee tide may have pulled back from its high water mark in the earliest voting states, it continues to be felt around the country. Nationally, Huckabee still leads in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll. In Missouri, Huckabee holds a two-point edge over Hillary Clinton in a general election match-up at the same time Clinton holds a six-point edge over Giuliani.
The bounce for McCain in Iowa comes after the Des Moines Register endorsed the Arizona Senator last weekend. McCain has spent very little time in the state so far and has little or no organization in Iowa. It remains to be seen whether he can translate the current bounce into a solid showing on January 3. However, McCain also picked up endorsements from Senator Joe Liberman and the Boston Globe. New data released today shows that those endorsements have helped McCain close to within a few points of Romney for the lead in New Hampshire.
Arkansans Criticize Huckabee’s Budgets. |
Once again proving folks that Mr Huckabee is truly NOT a conservative like Mitt Romney
By LISA ROSSI • REGISTER AMES BUREAU • December 15, 2007
Some former Arkansas legislators said Friday in a conference call organized by the Mitt Romney campaign that Mike Huckabee had overspent as governor, which hurt the state’s Republican Party.
More questions about Huckabee’s reputation as governor of Arkansas have been raised since his recent rise to the front of the presidential race in Iowa.
AdvertisementOn Friday, two former legislators and one current one blasted his record on spending while in the Arkansas Statehouse.
“We kind of felt abandoned as fiscal conservatives,” said former Arkansas Rep. Jim Hendren, a Republican. Arkansas Rep. Donna Hutchinson, a Republican, criticized Huckabee for his ideas on immigration while in office.
Jake Files, a former Republican Arkansas legislator, said that during Huckabee’s tenure, government spending more than doubled: From 1996 to 2006, spending increased from $6.6 billion to $16.1 billion, he said.
Files hasn’t endorsed anyone for president. Hendren and Hutchinson both said they were supporting Romney.
The new wave of criticism represents a departure from the brief detente between Romney and Huckabee, who refrained from criticizing each other at The Des Moines Register’s Republican debate this week.
After the debate, Huckabee told reporters he apologized to Romney for remarks he made for a New York Times Magazine article that appeared to challenge Romney’s Mormon religion.
The jabs behind the scenes reignited shortly thereafter.
“It’s amazing that, you know, Romney keeps talking about Ronald Reagan all the time, (but) the second he gets behind the polls, he attacks some of the Republicans, breaking the 11th commandment,” said Eric Woolson, Huckabee’s press secretary in Iowa. The oft-quoted “commandment” associated with Reagan was “Thou shalt not speak ill of any fellow Republican.”
Woolson said Republicans who cited increased spending during Huckabee’s administration were citing numbers that included federal Medicaid money, which increased in all states, not just in Arkansas.
Mike Stormes, an administrator in the Arkansas department of finance and administration, said it’s more accurate to judge Huckabee on the budgets for which he actually had influence.
He became governor in July of 1996, while the government was operating in fiscal year 1997. The first budget for which Huckabee offered a proposal was for the years 1998 and 1999 during the state’s biennial budget negotiations.
Under that analysis, spending increased from $8.4 billion in expenditures in 1998 to $16.5 billion in 2007, Stormes said.
He cited inflation, court-mandated money spent on education, higher education spending, more department of human services spending, increased Medicaid dollars, and highway spending as reasons for the increased overall Arkansas government spending.
Huckabee has also been criticized by the fiscally conservative organization Club for Growth, which will air television ads in Iowa and South Carolina critical of tax increases that occurred during his administration.
The Ron Paul campaign has also organized opposition to Huckabee. The campaign paid the travel costs for two Arkansas Republicans — former Rep. Randy Minton and former Sen. Jim Holt — to talk in Iowa this week about Huckabee’s record.
A group of Huckabee supporters from Arkansas was also brought to Iowa to address some of the criticisms, Huckabee’s staff said.
Doug Matayo was among that group. Matayo, a former Republican legislator, said Huckabee’s record showed he was a fiscal conservative.
“Each year, he balanced the budget as he was required to do, but also the governor at the beginning of his tenure was able to push through the first and only broad-based tax cut we’ve had in our state since Reconstruction,” he said.
Matayo also praised Huckabee for his work to improve the state’s infrastructure and roads.
“I think it is conservative and good sound fiscal policy for a governor to focus on infrastructure like he did,” he said.
Huckacide |
Huckacide
A shiny Christmas present for the Democrats.
By Rich Lowry
The ghost of Howard Dean haunts the pundit class. As soon as a candidate of either party spikes up in the polls, he is compared with Dean, who had a spectacular boomlet in the second half of 2003 only to deflate as soon as people began to vote in early 2004.
After many false prophecies, Dean circa 2008 has finally arrived. He is former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee. Not because he will inevitably blow himself up in Iowa. But because, like Dean, his nomination would represent an act of suicide by his party.
Like Dean, Huckabee is an under-vetted former governor who is manifestly unprepared to be president of the United States. Like Dean, he is rising toward the top of polls in a crowded field based on his appeal to a particular niche of his party. As with Dean, his vulnerabilities in a general election are so screamingly obvious that it’s hard to believe that primary voters, once they focus seriously on their choice, will nominate him.
The GOP’s social conservatism inarguably has been an enormous benefit to the party throughout the past 30 years, winning over conservative Democrats and lower-income voters who otherwise might not find the Republican limited-government message appealing. That said, nominating a Southern Baptist pastor running on his religiosity would be rather overdoing it. Social conservatism has to be part of the Republican message, but it can’t be the message in its entirety.
Someone needs to tell Huckabee. His first TV ads in Iowa touted him as a “Christian leader,” and his target audience of evangelicals has responded. But according to a Pew poll released in early December, only 1 in 7 nonevangelical Republicans support him in Iowa and 1 in 20 nonevangelicals in New Hampshire and South Carolina.
Huckabee has declared that he doesn’t believe in evolution. Even if there are many people in America who agree with him, his position would play into the image of Republicans as the anti-science party. This would tend to push away independents and upper-income Republicans. In short, Huckabee would take a strength of the GOP and, through overplaying it, make it a weakness.
He’d do the same on taxes. In general, the public tends to support Democratic proposals for bigger government, which Republicans counter by saying that the proposals will require higher taxes. Huckabee will be equipped poorly to make this traditional Republican comeback, given his tax-raising history in Arkansas. Huckabee tries to compensate with a sales-tax scheme that allows him to say he supports eliminating the IRS, but is so wildly implausible that it would be a liability in a general election.
Then, there’s national security, the Republican trump card during the Cold War and after 9/11. Huckabee not only has zero national-security credentials, he basically has no foreign-policy advisers either, as a New York Times Magazine piece this Sunday makes clear. In a speech at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in September, Huckabee struck notes seemingly borrowed from Barack Obama, hitting the Bush administration for its “bunker mentality” and strongly supporting direct talks with Iran. A foreign-policy debate with a Democratic nominee would be a competition over who can promise to be nicer to foreign countries.
None of this is a winning formula. Huckabee has been running his campaign out of his back pocket, and has done it extremely well. There’s a reason, though, that serious candidates surround themselves with policy experts. It’s necessary to running a campaign based on more than sound bites. Wherever you scratch Huckabee on policy, he seems an inch deep. Do Republicans really want to enter what is already a tough political year with a candidate apparently allergic to preparation, and who has shown no predilection for organizing or fundraising, when he can do cable TV appearances instead?
Democrats have to be looking at Huckabee the way Republicans once regarded Dean — as a shiny Christmas present that is too good to be true.
© 2007 by King Features Syndicate
Iowa Trendlines |
Alot of talk lately about Iowa and it’s importance to the GOP nominee. Of course, it is fairly obvious you need to have a top 3 finish in Iowa to move on to New Hampshire. Romney has been fairly consistent over the last 2 months, Huckabee rising, and Giuliani holding steady at around 15%. Take a look at the following graph :
I have taken the last 17 Iowa polls from Real Clear Politics. You will see that Romney (blue) has remained very consistent in his trend line…holding in the 25-29% range since the beginning of October. Huckabee’s trend line is obviously more substantial, rocketing up the charts due to consistent and favorable media coverage to be in a neck and neck tie with Mitt. Giuliani, the national front runner, is lagging in a distant 3rd place with a steady attrition rate into the low 12% range.
So, here is my analysis. Romney, Huckabee, and Giuliani will be the 3 tickets out of Iowa. I still believe Romney will win Iowa, given his steady presence and organization over the last year. Huckabee, I feel, peaked too soon. The media is trying desperately to pump up this guy for 2 reasons. #1, they would like their chances in a Huckabee / Clinton match-up. And #2, if not that they are salivating for a Giuliani / Clinton matchup.
Romney is throwing a monkey wrench into those plans, so as the media promoted Huckabee you can see he took off.
However, as I said earlier…Huckabee peaked too soon. We are still 30 days away from the Iowa caucus. The Huckabee record is starting to make the rounds in Iowa, and as it does it will show him to NOT be the conservative the media is playing him out to be. He has raised taxes in Arkansas more in 10 years than Bill Clinton did in 12!!!
So, all in all…I believe Romney will still take Iowa by about 5% giving him a nice boost into New Hampshire where he is already leading by double digits.
So far, so good folks.
President Willard Mitt Romney is looking better and better by the day…
Romney tied for lead in South Carolina! |
So let’s see. Mitt is currently in the lead in IA, NH, WY, MI, and now tied South Carolina. If he wins SC, his momentum will bring him neck and neck with Rudy in Florida…where Romney has been making some big steps lately. Watch out for how Huckabee does in IA. If Huckabee finishes a strong second, Huckabee will actually take votes away from Fred in SC and would help Romney indirectly win SC. Things are looking VERY good for our candidate at this time. One final thing to consider - Romney, if he wins the primary, will have a distinct advantage in that he has actually defeated a woman when running for Gov. of Mass. He defeated Treasurer Shannon O’Brien, who is very much like Hillary. Romney is well aware how to debate a woman without looking overbearing or too strong. Just debate the PERSON, and not the gender Thanks the key!
Mitt Romney and Fred Thompson are tied for the lead in South Carolina’s Republican Presidential Primary.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey finds both men earning 21% of the vote from Likely Primary Voters. That’s a big change from September when Thompson was on top with support from 24% and Romney trailed the frontrunner by nine percentage points.
Trailing the two leaders are Rudy Giuliani at 13%, Mike Huckabee at 12%, John McCain at 9%, and Ron Paul at 8%. Tom Tancredo and Duncan Hunter each earn support from 2% while 13% are undecided (see crosstabs).
Those numbers reflect a seven-point drop for Giuliani, a nine-point gain for Huckabee, little change for McCain, and a six-point jump for Paul.
Thompson, perhaps enjoying a boost from his recent endorsement by the National Right-to-Life Committee, leads among Evangelical Christian voters. Romney leads among other Protestants. Thompson leads among men while Romney leads among women.
Romney, in addition to his strong showing in South Carolina, leads the earliest voting states of Iowa and New Hampshire. Giuliani leads in Florida and in the national polls.
In South Carolina, as in other states, the race remains quite fluid. Sixty-eight percent (68%) of Romney’s supporters say they might change their mind before voting. For the other candidates, 47% to 57% of their supporters say the same thing.
Thompson is viewed favorably by 76% of the state’s likely primary voters, Giuliani and Romney by 72% each. For Romney, that’s a ten-point gain from the previous survey.
McCain continues to draw mixed reviews—60% favorable and 39% unfavorable. Huckabee is less well known—57% have a favorable opinion of him and 29% unfavorable. Ron Paul is viewed favorably by 35% and unfavorably by 50%.
Romney up 13 in Iowa! |
Things are looking good for the Nation’s first caucus. A win here assures New Hampshire, and I hope that momentum snowballs into wins in South Carolina and Florida. We shall see…
Mitt Romney has extended his lead in the Iowa Republican Presidential Caucus for 2008 and three candidates are virtually tied for second place.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of the race shows Romney with support from 29% of Likely Caucus Participants. Trailing the frontrunner by thirteen percentage points is Mike Huckabee who enjoys support from 16%. In a virtual tie for second with Huckabee are Rudy Giuliani at 15% and Fred Thompson at 14%. Further back are John McCain (6%), Ron Paul (4%), Tom Tancredo (4%), and Duncan Hunter (2%). Nine percent (9%) are undecided (see crosstabs).
Romney’s thirteen point advantage is double his six-point lead from a month ago. Support for Romney has increased four-points since the prior survey while Thompson’s support has fallen four points. Mike Huckabee is down two from the earlier survey suggesting his bounce may have reached at least a temporary plateau. Rudy Giuliani, the leader in national polls, picked up three percentage points over the past month.
Romney also enjoys a strong lead in New Hampshire, site of the first-in-the-nation Presidential Primary.
There are many challenges to polling a caucus, primarily around the question of who will actually participate. Those challenges are magnified this year by the timing of the caucus on January 3 forcing candidates and their teams to explore tactful methods of contacting voters during the holiday season. When only voters who are “certain” they will participate in the caucus are included in the totals, the race is a bit closer and Huckabee has a slightly more secure claim to second place. Using that tighter screening, it’s Romney 26% Huckabee 18%, Giuliani 15%, and Thompson 14%. (see discussion of methodology).
The race in Iowa is very fluid. Of the leading candidates, Huckabee has the most solid base of support but only 49% of his supporters are certain they will support him on January 3. Forty-one percent (41%) of Romney’s supporters are that certain along with 32% of Giuliani’s and 30% of Thompson’s.
Among those likely to take part in the Iowa Republican caucuses, Romney is viewed favorably by 76%, Huckabee by 65%, Giuliani by 74%, and Thompson by 73%. Those numbers reflect a six-point gain for Giuliani while impressions of the other candidates is essentially unchanged from a month ago.
McCain’s numbers, while still weak, have improved over the past month. Among Republicans likely to participate in the caucus, 61% have a favorable opinion of the Arizona Senator while 38% have an unfavorable view. A month ago, just 53% offered a positive assessment of the man once presumed to be the GOP frontrunner.
Romney now viewed as most conservative GOP candidate |
Monday, November 12, 2007
Rasmussen Reports
During the early stumbles of Fred Thompson’s Presidential campaign, his poll numbers and position in the race were sustained by the perception of Republican voters that he was the most conservative candidate in the Republican field. That is no longer the case.
Mitt Romney now tops Thompson and is seen as the most conservative candidate while Mike Huckabee is gaining ground fast on that front. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey data shows that 46% of Republican voters see Romney as politically conservative (see crosstabs). That’s up ten percentage points from 36% a month ago. Romney has also opened a significant lead in New Hampshire, home of the first Republican Presidential Primary.
At the same time, the number seeing Thompson as politically conservative has fallen eleven percentage points to 40% (see crosstabs). Thirty-four percent (34%) of Republicans now see the former Tennessee Senator as politically moderate while 3% say he’s liberal. As doubts of Thompson’s conservative credentials have grown, his support in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll has declined.
Moving up fast in the competition for most conservative contender is Mike Huckabee. Thirty-eight percent (38%) now view him as politically conservative, twenty percent (20%) say moderate, and 6% liberal (see crosstabs). In July, before the Huckabee boomlet began, just 21% viewed him as conservative while 27% said moderate or liberal.
Huckabee is still less well known than the other contenders and 36% of Republican voters do not know enough to offer an opinion on his ideology. Among those Republicans who do offer an opinion on his ideology, 59% view Huckabee as politically conservative. That’s a point higher than Romney earns among those who have an opinion on his ideology.
Just 30% of Republican voters see John McCain as politically conservative, unchanged from a month ago. Twenty-seven percent (27%) hold that view of Giuliani, little changed over the past month. Giuliani continues to lead in the national polls and is currently seen as the most electable Republican.
Looked at from the other perspective, 70% see Giuliani as moderate or liberal while 64% of Republicans say the same of McCain. Thompson is viewed as moderate or liberal by 37% of GOP voters, Romney by 33%, and Huckabee by 26%.
Ron Paul is viewed as politically conservative by just 16% of Republican voters. Twenty-six percent (26%) view him as politically moderate, 16% say liberal, and 42% have no opinion.
Among all voters nationwide, as opposed to just Republicans, Thompson is viewed as the most conservative of the group. Forty-six percent (46%) of all voters hold that view of him while 38% say the same about Romney. Thirty percent (30%) of all voters see McCain and Huckabee as politically conservative, while 27% say that description fits Giuliani.
It is interesting to note the gaps in perceptions between the parties. While 60% of Republicans view Rudy Giuliani as politically moderate, only 31% of Democrats agree. While 46% of Republicans see Romney as politically conservative, only 32% of Democrats share that view. Perceptions of John McCain are fairly consistent across party lines.
Looking at the public perceptions of Democratic Presidential contenders, 76% of Republicans consider Senator Hillary Clinton as politically liberal.
Only 29% of Democrats agree.
McCain Campaign Manager/Strategist Gone! |
By LIZ SIDOTI, Associated Press Writer 12 minutes ago
WASHINGTON - John McCain’s campaign manager and chief strategist are gone from their leadership roles, according to several officials with knowledge of the staff changes.
One official said Terry Nelson resigned as campaign manager for the Republican presidential candidate and John Weaver stepped down from his post of chief strategist on Tuesday. But other officials said Nelson was fired.
The officials spoke on the condition of anonymity because the shake-up has not been made public.
Two officials said Rick Davis, a longtime aide to McCain, will take over the campaign.
Yet another sign its increasingly becoming a 3 man race : Romney, Rudy, and Fred.
AngusReid Poll - America is ready to elect a Mormon! |
According to a poll released today by AngusReid Global Polling, more Americans feel America is ready to elect a Mormon President than any other group! The findings :
Polling Data
Do you think America is ready to elect…
A Mormon president (Romney)
66% - YES
27% - NO
7% - NOT SURE
An African-American president (Obama)
59% - YES
30% - NO
11% - NOT SURE
A woman president (Clinton)
58% - YES
32% - NO
10% - NOT SURE
A Hispanic president (Richardson)
39% - YES
48% - NO
13% - NOT SURE
Source: Princeton Survey Research Associates / Newsweek
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 1,001 American adults, conducted on Jul. 2 and Jul. 3, 2007. Margin of error is 4 per cent.
So what this tells me is what we have been hearing for quite a while….the “Mormon Issue” is certainly being over-hyped by the Democratic media machine, as they know this is the only item that can keep Mitt Romney down. As a Catholic, I feel Romney is the best choice….the best man of faith. What that faith is, doesen’t matter to me….as long as he shares my values. Looks like most of America feels the same, hence why Romney’s message is resonating and he is climbing in the polls.
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