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David Kim

Michael Graham of National Review puts McCain’s candidacy in proper perspective

Read the whole thing. Here are some choice quotes:

In 2000, running against George W. Bush and the entire Carroll Campbell machine in South Carolina, John McCain got 42% of the vote, and 240,000 votes out of 573,000 or so cast.

Tonight, he got 33% of the vote in a field where his top challengers—Romney and Giuliani—aren’t even running, and 135,000 actual votes. If just the same people who voted for McCain in 2000 had voted for him today, he would have won 50+% of the South Carolina vote. That would have been truly impressive.

Instead, John McCain LOST the support of 100,000 people—and he’s the winner?

McCain had the same “success” in New Hampshire (McCain, 2000: 48%, 116,000 votes; McCain 2008: 37%, 89,000 votes) and Michigan (2000: 50%, 600,000 votes; 2008: 30%, 257,000 votes).

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Neal Jones

Bronze in SC?

January 19th, 2008 | 25 Comments | Posted in Exit Polls, Mitt Romney, South Carolina

Thanks to Jeff Fuller for the link.

CNN Exit Polls show McCain as the likely winner. Huck appears to get the silver. From looking at the various tables and categories, Mitt could end up with 3rd Place. Fred’s close behind, however, in a split conservative race.

Go here to watch the delegate and overall numbers for SC.

Let’s keep our fingers crossed.

Update: With 1% reporting (long way to go, obviously), McCain is way out in front and Mitt has a secure 3rd-place position (leads by 6%–18% to 12% )over Fred.

Update II: What does this do to guaranteed-a-win Huckabee and 4th-place Fred?

Update III: With 28% reporting Fred in 3rd by 497 votes. This will be tight.

Update IV: I was about to type Mitt was down by ~2000 (62% reporting), but after refreshing the page Mitt is only down by 900 (with 65% reporting). I’d love to hold that bronze medal.

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Ann Marie Curling

Live Blogging The Nevada Caucuses and The South Carolina Primary.

Governor Romney’s Remarks on his Win in Nevada

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Vic Lundquist

South Carolina & Mike Huckabee

Flag Waving


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POTOMAC WATCH — By KIMBERLEY A. STRASSEL — Huckabee and the Values Vote — January 18, 2008; Page A12

I just love how Mike Huckabee keeps telling everyone on television he is going to win South Carolina tomorrow.    I love it!

As John McCain has been struggling to appeal to a majority of the Republican base, Mike Huckabee has been struggling to appeal to non-evangelical voters. In fact, Huckabee doesn’t even appeal to most evangelicals as evidenced in the Michigan primary this week. As frustrating as it must be for a Baptist minister to not receive the vast majority of evangelicals’ votes, he has got to be equally frustrated by receiving almost none of the non-evangelical votes.

In this Op/Ed pieced by Strassel, she is writing about South Carolina specifically:

Instead, recent polls here suggest that religious voters are proving to be more independent-minded. Mr. Huckabee has found himself having to scrap with Fred Thompson, Mitt Romney and even Mr. McCain for the 50% to 60% of voters in the Republican primary who describe themselves as evangelicals. And it is far from clear he’s locked up that vote.

He didn’t in Michigan. Mr. Huckabee did well with churchgoers there, but the bigger story is so did other Republicans. According to exit polls, of the 39% of Michigan voters in the GOP primary who described themselves as born-again or evangelical, Mr. Huckabee won 29%. A full 57% instead voted for either Mr. Romney (34%) or Mr. McCain (23%). Of those who said a candidate’s “religious beliefs matter a great deal or somewhat,” Mr. Romney won 36%, Mr. McCain 26% and Mr. Huckabee 25%.

The pickled Huckabee:

This indecision now has Mr. Huckabee in a pickle. He needs to shore up religious votes, but he also needs to start appealing to other parts of the Republican base. One of the more notable numbers out of Michigan (where Mr. Huckabee placed third) was that of the 61% of primary voters who said they were not born again or evangelical, he claimed a miserable 8%.

OUCH and DOUBLE OUCH:

In this crazy GOP race even a day is an eon, and if Mr. Huckabee has a shot of breaking through to more Republicans, it’s here. The polls show that a significant number of voters remain undecided. But it’s increasingly clear that Mr. Huckabee will have to earn those votes by convincing voters of his policies, not simply by the mere fact that he is a former minister.

I guess we are not the only ones who see him for who and what he is. In my opinion, Mike Huckabee should be killing it in South Carolina. He should be running away with the primary election. He is a Baptist minister from the South. He should have just about all the votes down there; well, at least from all the lemmings.

I love how Huckabee keeps telling all the pundits he is going to win South Carolina.  Tonight on Fox, he even referred to a speech he gave as governor as some who thought it “prophetic.”

~ Vic

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Ann Marie Curling

According to Lee Bandy, South Carolina’s not gonna be “the” deciding factor…

January 18th, 2008 | 1 Comment | Posted in Mitt Romney, South Carolina, Video

Thanks to Jeff Fuller for finding this video…



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Ann Marie Curling

Strategy in Nevada, South Carolina, and Florida?

January 16th, 2008 | 30 Comments | Posted in Florida, Mitt Romney, Nevada, South Carolina, Strategy

Here ya go John S. Maine! Talk amongst yourselves! :)

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Paul Johnson

Awesome!

Congrats to Mitt. A new front runner emerges (though a lot of good that label did Giuliani, Huckabee and McCain), after wresting Michigan from McCain. Current medal count after four contests:

Mitt: 2 golds and 2 silvers, even more popular votes and more delegates than anyone else;

McCain: less money, a donor list pledged as collateral for a loan, a gold and a silver (note theres’ no economic plan among his assets);

Huckabee: less money, fleeing evangelicals, diminishing hope in SC, a gold and two bronzes.

Let’s not forget: McCain took Michigan in 2000, was popular with independents in NH, took 44% of those classifying themselves as liberal in NH, but still ceded first to Mitt despite only one major Democrat on the ballot. This was a fantastic victory.

Let’s enjoy before hitting it hard in SC, NV and winner take all FL!

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Jeff Fuller

NEVADA LOOMING: Let’s insist the media give the GOP Nevada caucus the coverage and respect it deserves

January 15th, 2008 | 5 Comments | Posted in Media, Michigan, Netroots, Nevada, New Media, Romney, South Carolina, Wyoming

Most Romney supporters were pretty peeved about how the media has downplayed his WY victory. (a recent Newsmax story addresses this) However, I can see how it was easy for the media to ignore WY results since it’s the least populous state and due to the odd caucus system they used (mostly party insiders and/or major activists.) However, their 12 delegates were as many as NH awarded, and Mitt actually got more delegates out of WY (8) than McCain got out of NH (7).

But that’s in the past already . . . but NV looms in the future and we need to insist that it should count. Sadly, we’re already seeing how downplayed NV is in the national media coverage.

Even though the the media is covering NV pretty heavily for the it for the Democratic side, they’re relatively ignoring it for the GOP. My paranoid side says: “Figures, since Romney stands a good chance of winning it . . . of course the MSM will downplay it.” I’m actually convinced that Romney will win it (and if he wins MI, Romney will win NV BIG). Unfortunate timing has the NV caucus on the same day as the SC primary (which is monopolizing the media’s coverage.)

But is SC inherently more important than NV for this nomination?

OK, so we know that in recent history, no GOP candidate has won the nomination without winning SC. But this year is very different with at least three candidates still with very credible claims to taking it all, and two others who are still considered “top-teir” candidates. Usually, someone has established themselves after IA and NH and races into SC with the mighty momentum. Or, in the past, the race has been winnowed down to two people already and SC has been the final elimination round for one of them. Not so this year. Some are arguing that FL may play the role this year that SC has played in the past.

But lets look at the two states objectively.

Both are on Jan 19th

NV: 34 delegates up for grabs
SC: 24 delegates up for grabs

NV: Important swing state/purple state (i.e. we need someone who can show/run strong in such a state for the general election)
SC: Solid Red state . . . whoever the nominee is will win SC and most of the south no matter what.

NV: First western state on the docket (and much of that region are swing states)
SC: First southern state primary . . . and the south is pretty much locked up for the GOP.

Objectively, NV looks MORE important than SC to me!

Romney supporters need to start trumpeting the importance of NV relative to SC. Let’s get this message on blogs, in comment sections on important blogs/articles/etc . . . I encourgage people to forward this message to your friends/contacts. It would be great if we could get an email campaign together focused at news organizations/journalists/prominent bloggers and asking them why it’s being ignored so much . . . demanding that it get fair coverage (at least as much as their giving to the Dems in NV. I don’t think any of us want another of Romney’s wins to be written off like WY was. LET’S MAKE NEVADA COUNT!

Jeff Fuller

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John Cronin

Living In South Carolina

As I have witnessed John McCain’s campaign being revived from a near death experience, I have often wondered how any conservative voter could possibly have forgotten his wrong headed support of the “No Illegal Alien Left Behind” bill in June of last year.

Then I came across Laura Siple’s comment and was very encouraged to know that not everyone is suffering from temporary amnesia. Hat tip to Laura for bringing us her in state view of Sen. McCain and his allies.

Laura Siple on 09 Jan 2008 at 11:15 pm edit this #30

Living in South Carolina I can say that many conservatives here have not forgotten McCain’s stand on illegal immigration. One of his chief supporters, Senator Lindsay Graham, heard the displeasure of SC conservatives while giving a speech during the “amnesty” debacle. He was roundly booed. Huckabee, on the other hand, as an evangelical will draw that support. Mitt should focus on illegal immigration AND how he is the only one on the podium who can say he has created and saved MANY jobs through his vast private sector experience. I also don’t think it would hurt to mention that he was endorsed by Robert R. Taylor, dean of Bob Jones University’s college of arts and sciences. Mr Taylor said he believes the former Massachusetts governor is the only Republican candidate who both stands a chance of winning the White House and will reliably implement the anti-abortion, antigay marriage, pro-gun agenda of Christian conservatives. This endorsement was given in October 2007. Taylor acknowledged that endorsing a Mormon for president risked alienating the university’s conservative donors and alumni. But, he said, “we’re not electing a pastor — we’re electing a president.” This may not be big news outside South Carolina, but it was big news here.

~~John Cronin~~

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Ann Marie Curling

Slimeball McCain Stoops To New Lows in What “Certainly Smells of Dirty Politics and Dirty Campaigning” in South Carolina

Check Out The Following Transcripts/Videos:




SCARBOROUGH: He’s about straight talk. Let me show you this flyer that John McCain is sending out in South Carolina. This is my favorite flyer thus far in the political campaign season. John McCain, who criticized negative, distorted campaigning in South Carolina in 2000 and swore he wouldn’t do it, sends out a flier attacking Mitt Romney for not supporting George Bush’s tax cuts early enough. What’s left off of here, Willie, is the fact he called those tax cuts tax cuts for the rich. He voted against them, and he told Tim Russert last week he was proud that he voted against them. But he’s criticizing Mitt for not supporting them early enough. Problematic or Straight-Talk Express kicking it into overdrive.

GEIST: You’ve run for office. What’s the thinking there? You just bank on the fact that people in South Carolina don’t check their facts? What’s the thought there?

SCARBOROUGH: Seriously, I would never send out a flier like that. I really wouldn’t because, if people do catch you doing that, then it suggests that you think they’re stupid, and it also opens up the tax issue.




SCARBOROUGH: Also, very interesting, John McCain mailer went out. Now you’ll remember John McCain attacked in 2000, and he was going to be very positive. This is a McCain mailer that went out that’s talking about abortion. I don’t know if we have the other side of that or not. That’s one mailer that went out. There’s another one.

GEIST: What you’re talking about, it’s also related. He attacked Mitt Romney. He said Mitt Romney funded taxpayer funded abortions. Calls Massachusetts tax-achusetts, criticizes him for not supporting the Bush tax cuts.

SCARBOROUGH: I’ll be very careful here. I will only say this. That John McCain accused people of attacking him unfairly in South Carolina. I would suggest, if you’re flooding mailboxes with mailers that say Mitt Romney didn’t support George Bush’s tax cuts early enough and yet you voted — actually, you, the guy sending out the mailer, voted against George Bush’s tax cuts, were one of only two people that voted against George Bush’s tax cuts, called George Bush’s tax cuts, tax cuts for the rich. And you were on Tim Russert two weeks ago, and you said you were still damn proud that you voted against George Bush’s tax cuts. To send out a mailer attacking Mitt Romney for not supporting George Bush’s tax cuts early enough certainly smells of dirty politics and dirty campaigning.

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Andru Blonquist

McCain’s “Straight-Face” Express

From South Carolinians for Romney

Question: What do you call someone who denies something to your face, but who knows that at that very moment, he is actually doing the opposite?

Answer: Entrenched Politician

Time has an article entitled “The Dirt Starts Flying” about South Carolina’s Republican primary coming up this week and had an interesting–though not surprising tidbit about the McCain campaign.

But as the McCain campaign rode down the sea coast towards Charleston before the weekend, the candidate spoke as if he was defying history. When asked if he thought he could get through South Carolina without going negative on his opponents, he said, “I think I can.” …
Indeed, even as McCain spoke on the bus, his campaign had already postmarked a nasty negative mailer in South Carolina with several misleading claims about Mitt Romney, including the allegation that the former Massachusetts governor had “provided taxpayer funded abortions.”

Rather than talking about McCain’s hypocrisy, let’s talk about the false claims of the piece.

1) Romney’s health plan allowed for $50 abortions on demand

The truth of the matter is that any health insurance plan in Massachusetts was required by law to include abortions at the same co-pay as other similar surgical procedures–not that there is any such thing as a “similar surgical procedure”, but that’s how the 85% Democrat legislature defined it in their deluded mental state when the law originally passed before Romney was ever elected.

2) Romney increased fees and taxes by $700 million in Massachusetts

This one is more than just two opposing views of the same figures and statistics–it’s outright deception. First of all, the previous governor of Massachusetts had signed into law an increase in state fees that didn’t take effect until after Romney took office. This accounted for $240 million of increased revenue. Then, Romney added $260 million in fees to which he takes full credit. Then another $150 million was raised by closing loopholes in corporate tax law (that allowed businesses to circumvent the intent of the law through claiming specific categories and statuses). I’ll explain this a little better in just a second, but for now, the total comes to $650 million, which McCain then conveniently rounds up to $700 million (what’s $50 million to a 4th-term US senator anyway?).

As for the corporate loopholes, let me give you an analogy to explain what happened.

Let’s say John Appleseed owns an apple stand and sells more apples than anyone else in town. Meanwhile, Joe Florida down the street sells oranges, but he’s struggling due to a deep freeze destroying most of his crop. Joe Florida’s friend, D. Libocrat–the politician who occasionally gets free juice from Joe–writes a bill giving tax breaks to orange sellers. Upon seeing this preferential treatment, John Appleseed runs down to the grocery store, buys a few pounds of oranges and starts to sell them. Then when John files taxes that year, he lists his business as “orange seller” rather than “apple seller”. The result–a significant reduction in Mr. Appleseed’s corporate tax burden.

Governor F. Potus Romney, who sees the “devil in the details”, analyzes the data and finds out that the orange business is doing fine now so he repeals the “orange tax loophole” and now both John and Joe are back to paying normal tax rates.

The tax law in these instances were written to help specific portions of the state’s economy (we hope), so businesses tried to maneuver themselves into those “special-treatment categories” for tax breaks. It’s not surprising that so many of these “special-treatment categories” existed in a state of liberals who preach concern for the common man–but write obscure details into laws that benefit special interests (though I’m sure republicans aren’t blameless).

Fees vs. Taxes:

Some argue that a fee is a tax, but there is a huge difference. Jeff, at Iowans for Mitt put it best when he said,

Service fees are not taxes, service fees REDUCE taxes. Make the user pay so the taxpayer doesn’t have to. Or, put another way:

Fees: Pay for what you get.

Taxes: Pay for what others get.

I would add that exorbitant fees are bad–especially if they exceed the cost incurred providing the service. But no one is claiming that any of Romney’s increased fees were exorbitant. They were a common sense approach that is innately fair. Make the user pay, and not the taxpayer.

Again, it’s not surprising that McCain would try to distort Romney’s record. I’m just surprised he kept a straight face while doing it.

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Vic Lundquist

Huckabee is First Republican in 100 Years to Get Union Endorsement

Flag Waving

And Huckabee is telling us he is not a wolf in sheep’s clothing? Oh, did I just say that? What I meant, is Huckabee a Democrat in a Republican’s cloak? I think so.

This is a quote from one of the comments left at this MSNBC post:

Wow! The Machinist & Aerospace union always endorses a Democrat. This is really surprising.

PAINTERS UNION ENDORSES HUCKABEE — From NBC/NJ’s Adam Aigner-Treworgy

The 170,000-member International Painters Union endorsed Huckabee, per the governor’s statement. About 30% of the union’s members are Republicans. This is the first time the union has endorsed a GOP candidate in more 100 years. It is Huckabee’s second union endorsement; the first was the Machinist & Aerospace Workers Union.

The Painters union also endorsed Hillary Clinton last month on the Democratic side. Previously the Machinists & Aerospace union also endorsed both Huckabee and Clinton.

Hey, maybe I have not been around long enough, but I cannot remember any union ever endorsing a Republican. It is just amazing that Huckabee has the gall to claim he is even remotely conservative in the mold of all true conservatives! And people want this guy as their president, why?

~ Vic

We Need to Build the Coffers — PLEASE CONTRIBUTE HERE

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Rebecca Thayne

Challenge to Action for All South Carolina (But written for my dad)

Dear Dad,

Mitt Romney has been doing pretty well in the primaries and caucauses held so far. He came in second in the much publicized Iowa and New Hampshire races. He also came in first in the forgotten Wyoming race. Right now Romney leads Republican contenders in the popular vote and in the number of comitted delegates.

In spite of the obvious trappings of success, opponents are doing their best to squelch any good news and predict that Romney’s campaign is already doomed. You have probably heard plenty about this over the past couple of weeks.

The fact that the MSM and even some in the alternate media are willing to throw Romney out of his bus, while building up Huckabee and McCain, means that Romney and his supporters must roll up their sleeves and work even harder to spread his vision for America. This requires time, money and conviction. The good news is that with a lot of conviction, a little time and money can go a long way.

Doing well in South Carolina would give a good lift to Romney’s campaign. It is conventional wisdom that Romney cannot expect to win the state. I don’t know if he can or not. What I do know is that South Carolinans are more inclined to listen and consider the claims of their friends and neighbors than to the promises of an outsider. In particular, an outsider politician.

To that end, I would like to challenge you to Join Team Mitt. To do this, go to www.mittromney.com At the right of the screen is a box titled Team Mitt. Click on any of the links there and select the link Join Today. From there, fill in your personal information and select the coalitions that are of most interest to you. I joined the “Faith and Values” and “Women’s” coalitions, along with “Tax Cutters” I think. Then you can also check the ways that you would be willing to help. There is a variety of ways that you can help and you can choose those that you are most comfortable with. The list is as follows:

Make phone calls
Help with events
Go door-to-door
Serve as a local volunteer leader
Send postcards or emails to friends
Host a Team Mitt event
Help raise money
All of the Above

Checking any of these boxes is not a firm comittment on your part. It simply means that you will be advised, by e-mail, when there is an opportunity for you to help the campaign in the ways that interest you.

Once you have joined Team Mitt, the first thing you can do to help is to invite others to join. Call or e-mail friends and family and encourage them to join. They will recieve weekly e-mails giving a status of the campaign along with other official annoucnements from the campaign. This insider’s view can be helpful when discussing the race with people who may be undecided. Some people may not even be aware that the South Carolina Primary is coming up so quickly. When I was there at Christmas, Mirm was not aware that the election was being held on January 19. She thought it was in February or March sometime.

Also, on this site you can look up press releases, access blogs and other information about Romney’s candidacy, and buy merchandise. You can get Mom her very own yard sign, just like she always wanted. You can also contribute money to the campaign if you want.

At this point, just showing that you care enough about this candidate to take some action, no matter how small, can contribute to the effectiveness of Romney’s campaign. So just to recap, my challenge for you is to:

1) Join Team Mitt
2) Invite other friends and family, especially those in South Carolina to also Join Team Mitt
3) Act on opportunities to help when you are comfortable doing so

I first learned to support Mitt Romney from you and Mom. Now, I ask you to reach outside the family circle and teach your neighbors the value of supporting Romney, as well.

Love,
Rebecca

P.S. I just noticed that I selected “homeschooling” as a catergory but I didn’t mention it in my letter. Well, since the girls are being home-schooled, it could be very educational for them to participate in some of the campaign events. Even though they aren’t old enough to vote, they are old enough to be convincing if armed with facts and information. Just a thought.

Love,
Rebecca

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Nate Gunderson

Debate Reminder - January 10

January 10th, 2008 | 18 Comments | Posted in Debates, Mitt Romney, South Carolina

GOP debate tonight on Fox News 9 PM Eastern. The debate will include all of the candidates, will be moderated by Brit Hume, and will be held at the Myrtle Beach Convention Center in Myrtle Beach, South Carolina.

The chat room will be open. Feel free to join by clicking the button below.


~Nate Gunderson

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John Cronin

Monaghan Endorses Romney

TOWNHALL.COM here http://www.townhall.com/blog

Posted by: Hugh Hewitt at 6:59 PM

I know Ann Marie has a previous post on Mr. Monaghan’s endorsement of Mitt Romney, but I thought what Hugh Hewitt had to say was so important that it bore repeating.

One of the most important points Mr. Hewitt makes is that conservatives are not going to surrender their party without a fight. Their have been numerous calls for Mitt Romney to withdraw from the race. Interesting advise to the candidate who is leading in the delegate count!

I have some unsolicited advise for the ink-stained wretches who are calling for us to hand over the GOP to them on a silver platter……we will see you at the polls in November!

Domino’s Pizza founder Tom Monaghan endorsed Mitt Romney today. As one of Michigan’s highest profile business successes this would be news in itself, but it is far more important than just another keen observer of the economy recognizing Romney’s qualifications to serve as president.

Monaghan is a Catholic’s Catholic, the founder of Ave Maria University and Law School, and one of the forces behind Legatus, an organization of senior Catholic business leaders. He is an ardent pro-lifer, and a man deeply concerned with rescuing the culture.

Monaghan’s decision to announce today is a clear signal to social conservatives that it is time to chose and get in the game, first in Michigan and then South Carolina, Nevada and Florida in an effort to save the GOP from capture by the anti-conservative John McCain and the neopopulist Mike Huckabee.

Many leaders of the value voters have stayed on the sidelines, buffeted by conflicting pressures and a sometimes noisy anti-Mormon fringe. They may stay there, but if they do and the presidency is lost and with it the Surpreme Court, their inactivity in January 2008 will be a heavy burden to bear. Monaghan apparently knows this and is leading the way that social conservatives should follow.

There is no way Romney should retire from this race before Super Tuesday no matter how many Beltway-Manhattan pundits want him out. The conservatives are not going to surrender their party, and they want a chance to say so at the ballot box. As the upheaval on the Democratic side showed yesterday, there are many surprises in store for pollsters and pundits in the new media age of politics. By February 5, a thoroughly disgusted core of Republican activists from the center-right will be mobilized across the country to keep their party on the path established by the Reagan-Bush coalitions.

~~John Cronin~~

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