Are We At An Inflection Point?
Interesting points made by the savvy Michael Barone in an article for TOWNHALL.COM. It is a very sobering piece, especially his conclusion that Obama seems likely to win the election.
I don’t like to root against Mr. Barone, but here’s hoping he’s wrong, just this once.
http://townhall.com/columnists/MichaelBarone/2008/09/27/are_we_at_an_inflection_point
by Michael Barone
You can sum up much of 20th century history by saying that in the 1930s Americans decided that markets didn’t work and government did, and that in the 1970s Americans decided that government didn’t work and markets did.
The protracted and painful experiences of those decades changed basic public attitudes on the balance between government and markets, between regulation and enterprise, between government aid programs and self-reliance. The breadlines and depression of the 1930s moved Americans in one direction; the gas lines and stagflation of the 1970s moved them in the other.
Which raises the question of whether the financial ructions of 2007-08 (09?) will move them back again. One reason to believe this is possible is the passage of time. Americans in the 1980s and 1990s were ready to accept deregulation and tax cuts and welfare reform because so few of them had personal memories of the 1930s.
In 1992, Bill Clinton ran as a different kind of Democrat because so many voters then had personal memories of the 1970s. Today, fewer do. Half the voters did not reach adulthood until the 1980s. They never sat behind the steering wheel in a gas line or paid monthly bills as inflation was skyrocketing. It’s plausible that they may be more open to big government programs than their elders.
Barack Obama and other Democrats have used the financial crisis to spin a narrative. The problem, they say, is deregulation and greed. This is not strictly speaking accurate. Obama and the Democrats opposed tighter regulation of the mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and John McCain supported it. Unregulated firms like hedge funds have done well, while heavily regulated banks have had troubles.
But the narrative will be advanced by the Obama-loving media … and by the passage of a giant financial bailout — er, rescue package. The likelihood, as this is written, is that Obama will be elected president and the Democrats will expand their congressional majorities. Possibly even to the 60 votes they need to effectively control the Senate.
September 27th, 2008 at 4:28 pm
Thanks for the post John.
It is likely that Obama will win the election. Rasmussen has him up by 6 points and Gallup by as much as 5 points. All prior to the debate of course, but everyday the lead widens. I guess we’ll have the debate numbers by Tuesday; it may have made a difference. It may have not, Obama did not make any critical mistakes last night.
I dont’t think the congress will be filibuster proof though. If there is anything the choice of Palin has done to the gop; she has energized the base. I’m pretty confident that many of the seats that were in trouble will remain in our hands. We’ll lose a couple of seats, but it won’t be the blow as many thought several months ago.
September 27th, 2008 at 8:38 pm
The choice of Palin on the outset appeared to be a blessing for McCain but now she appears to be a dud on interviews . Katie Couric made her look like a dunce in just a few minutes , do I think Biden is too much for her ? Probably …This coming debate with Biden will tell us if McCain has made a mistake , and I believe he has. ( He should have picked Romney )
http://news.aol.com/elections/article/republican-concerns-about-palin-grow/192226?icid=100214839×1210533521x1200577618
September 27th, 2008 at 9:15 pm
Thanks for the link Evelio.
If anyone has not seen the Couric interview of Palin go to mymanmitt.com or find it on CBS.com
I was stunned.
I was completely and utterly stunned by just the first few seconds of the clip. Sarah Palin is becoming a disaster.
I know she is a great debater and held her own during the Alaska gubernatorial debates. However, she is from Alaska. She understands and is completely comfortable discussing the LOCAL politics of her state. Sarah is clearly out of depth on the national stage.
Most likely she will be prepared and give succint answers in her debate next week. I’m not counting on it though.
September 27th, 2008 at 11:36 pm
Are you really surprised about Palin flubbing up on a Couric interview? Her placement as VP was a political move, pure and simple, to shore up the religious right. Now McCain has their loyalty, even though he doesn’t deserve it. He still may win, but I sure don’t want him too. Anybody who would be that cynical and careless in choosing a running mate can’t be trusted to make important decisions for the country. And what of the “family values” issues? Look at the man. Is he the face of family values? I think not!
September 28th, 2008 at 10:29 am
Update on the debate polls.
Gallup has Obama winning the first presidential debate.
Gallup
Poll: Obama won the debate, 46/34
The poll suggested the debate was to some extent a wash for McCain: 21% of those who watched say it gave them a more favorable view of him, 21% say less favorable and 56% say it didn’t change their opinion much.
Three in 10 said their opinion of Obama became more favorable after seeing the debate, compared to 14% who said less favorable and 54% who said it didn’t make much difference.