My Outlook For 2008
With the recent onslaught about Barack Obama inserting race in the General Election, inching McCain closer towards Barack in the polls (both nationally and federally) I think its a good time for all the members of comMITTed to play Nostradamus.
To RCP must go an accolade for providing some really neat tools! The default map is highly biased towards the left (what media doesn’t?) so, in order to have a fair map, you can create your own map! I’ve created my own, which you can see here. No real motive on how I chose the states, just speculation! What I have on my map is three states which are up for grabs: Ohio, Virginia, & New Hampshire.
I don’t know much about Ohio, Obama’s odds are favorable with Hillary as VP but it’s highly unlikely she’ll be chosen, which puts McCain on a level playing field with Obama to clinch the state for Republicans. We’ll have to see how the General Election unfurls itself to see where Ohio goes but I tend to think this state will go Republican after consecutive wins of it by our Prezzer.
If we are to believe that Tim Kaine (D) of Virginia is selected as Obama’s VP, it is probable that Virginia will switch to the Democratic column, after back-to-back wins of the state by President Bush. Without Kaine, we can pursue and win this state, odds are tougher if Kaine is on the ticket though. Again, we’ll have to see how this state pans out.
New Hampshire is the state I think we can definitively win. President Bush carried it in 2000 but Kerry swooped in and claimed it in 2004. McCain’s ‘maverick’ credentials allow moderates to lean towards him instead of liberal Obama.
Whichever way the Electoral Map shapes up this year, it is certain to be a competitive and close. Right now its too early to predict with certainty how states will cast their votes but its fun to speculate and say ‘what-if?’ One definitive thing we can ascertain is the attacks against Obama from McCain are working. What I think the McCain camp will do is lower Obama in the polls (which they’ve done), announce the VP before him and have the VP [Mitt Romney] articulately and eloquently explain what Obama will do if he is elected. If McCain can ultimately get ahead in the polls before the summer is over, he has a very real possibility of being the oldest Prezzer!
Now It’s Time For Your Commentary!
August 2nd, 2008 at 10:55 am
What about Michigan? Unpopular Dem Gov! Unpoular adulterous mayor of Detroit. I think the worst economy in the nation”ROMNEY” and of course Romneys much beloved father/Gov. Also, the Dems there got jacked by DMC. Ecspecially, if McCain picks Romney, it will probably be key state. Romney has house New Hampshire. Boston media has reached into there. Possibly Maine, Romney won, possibly Minnesota, Romney won. The western states, including McCains home state, which Romney would seal. Florida, I think this is it. The battle will probably center in Michigan. Focusing on economy and trying that effect next door in Ohio.
August 2nd, 2008 at 11:12 am
Nice map, i think that is very close. I think the polls in Minnesota have tightened, we’ll see. May I just say Smuckabee is getting to me. I’m on foxnews website watching videos. There’s Smuckabee recently talking from McCain headqaurters, with McCain logos behind him. It’s like from the other day. Something about how him and Cindy McCAin are heading to Rwanda. I don’t like him near McCain, ecspecially at this time. He is the fakest guy ever! I mean ever! Hopefully there just trying to keep him in touch and close, to use him to help unite the base, after they pick Romney? I don’t like this guy.
August 2nd, 2008 at 11:24 am
I’m very encouraged looking at polls on the real clear politics, for the states in the south and then looking at michigan and others states. Why McCain would’nt pick Romney, anti and anti only. However this is very encouraging, Romney has got to be the guy. If not McCain goes down before convention.
August 2nd, 2008 at 11:27 am
A realistic scenario, if ROMNEY is the VP.
Nevada, Colorado, Michigan, Indiana, N. Carolina, Florida, N. Hampshire, Missouri nets McCain 262 EV. Obama has 243 with 33 up for grabs. Toss ups are down only to Virginia, Ohio.
I think we lose N.Mexico and Iowa with any candidate. I think it is wishful thinking to presume a win in Minnesota with anybody. Wisconsin is a possibility and , perhaps a really long shot chance in Maine with Romney.
Truth is, although I am obviously biased, I look at June 2008 Survey VP polling and find that Romney adds 5-10 % to McCain’s numbers in 14 states and the biggest increase is in Michigan. Only in Minnesota does Pawlenty add more than Romney, ( +5 vs + 1 ) but McCain still loses by 6 or 7 there.
Without Romney, unfortunately, the odds are that McCain loses. It will be closer with an innocuous choice like Pawlenty and really big time with a Ridge or Lieberman.
August 2nd, 2008 at 11:33 am
I do think it will end up being Ohio… Romney obviously enhances the possibility of a McCain administration.
August 2nd, 2008 at 2:20 pm
Huck supporters are warning Mccain not to pick Mitt once again. They say because he is Mormon. They say they don’t trust him on pro-choice and same sex marriage. This came across the screen at Fox this am while Obama was giving press conference. I said, if it is not Huck, he’ll do whatever to ruin it for Romney. Interesting, that’s where Huck works now.
They pride themself in fair and balanced. Huck could not even mention Mitt the other night. It’s no secret , most everyone else mentions Mitt as No.1.
August 2nd, 2008 at 7:12 pm
You know, the other night when they interviewed Mr. Wonderful at Fox(HUCK)he never mentioned Mitt one time for veep. I think we have a conflict of interest here. He’s still very biased and not out of this political picture. I resent him having that position. Can’t Fox see this for themselves? He’s pretty savy. Me thinks he’s alittle too good with words! Anyone else feel conflict of interest? Just wondering??????
August 2nd, 2008 at 7:56 pm
I agree with you completely, Paulee and Mike. I wonder how many viewers turn the channel because they can’t stomach Huckabee. What a tarnish he casts on Fox News.
Every single move Huck makes is geared toward his winning in 2012. He knows he won’t be McCain’s VP and he’s trying his hardest to ruin Mitt’s chances.
There’s been plenty of speculation that Huck and his followers want Obama to win this fall, thereby improving Huck’s chances in 2012. After he dropped out, his supporters held a rally in Arkansas. Some of the speakers got up on stage and actually said that they hope McCain loses. Huck was standing right there with a huge grin on his face and didn’t make any attempt to stop them.
August 2nd, 2008 at 8:22 pm
I just read that Rep. Eric Cantor of Virginia is among those being vetted by McCain’s team, according to a Republican insider.
August 2nd, 2008 at 9:45 pm
Well JA, they’d be a fool not to check every viable source. And who knows? Perhaps mitt told him to keep looking, to be sure he got the best person for the job?
I still hope it’s Mitt.
August 2nd, 2008 at 9:57 pm
You know folks, there is a strategic game being played and we are a big part of it. As a run up to selecting a VP, the candidate probably has a preference by now and a short list of 1 or 2 or 3 names. The opposition leaks, through ” sources”, ” contacts”, “internal polls, etc., and a variety of other means , a name of the day or week. We play it up and toss it around but the real audience is the opposition, to get them to consider rearranging their own short list. The game also involves lunges in the media towards an “announcement”, only to draw back at the last minute and see if your head fake has gotten your opponent to committ. This will go on as long as possible, so that someone will chicken out and go first and the other can respond.
Frankly, I think it’s stupid. It’s running out the clock in a short season to McCain’s real disadvantage, no matter who he picks..
August 2nd, 2008 at 11:03 pm
Craig you are right. This whole game of waiting to announce VP is stupid. I am tired of it.
August 2nd, 2008 at 11:31 pm
Craig, I agree. I’ve noticed a name a week now. Palin, Pawlenty, Kasich, now Cohen. I think the real target is a done deal. But this way, it makes the other side wonder what the heck is going on! Notice Obama’s team doing the same thing. Flavor of the day this week is Keene and Cohen. Meanwhile, they’ll both send them out as surragates, and the american pulbic will say ‘huh?’. Then next week, it’s another name de jour. I think Mac is waiting for the convention, to make Obama pick first. I think the big O (as in empty) wants Mac to pick first. I hope Mac holds out to after the olympics.
At this point, I’m with Sarah. If he picks huckabee (which looks like such a long shot, even considering it sends a shiver up my leg!), I’ll not work for Mac. Let the ‘evangalicals’ show how much power they REALLY have (none). Go to Article VI Blog and read what’s there too. Very interesting. (Thanks Erin for the tip. Very good reading!)
August 3rd, 2008 at 9:46 am
Of Course! McCain needs Mitt for reasons others here have posted, but the real story is Obama and what’s happening in middle America. WE probably will have to concede the Left Coast as usual(too many LOONS!) and also the Right Coast down to Virginia, but not including that state. The Election will be won in THE MIDDLE states(minus Illinois)just as the last 2 elections. Obama Mania, re:Rock Star Celebrity status, won’t sway any voters in Middle America. This election will be very much like the last 2, close! but no “Happy Days are Here Again” refrains from the Left aka LOONS!
August 6th, 2008 at 12:39 am
Playing Nostradamus huh? If McCain picks Mitt he has a chance in those swing states that he won in the west Like Nevada and also Michigan, Lets add Massachusetts just for fun as a big maybe if Mitt is on the ticket, Florida is a definite lock, and other states mentioned in above comments are plausible like Ohio. California is a no way jose state. That is going to the Democrats as much as I hate to say it. I just have no faith that republicans will come out in droves needed to turn the state red as in the day’s of Reagan.