My Perspective On The Electoral Map
Okay folks, I know its too early in the General Election to start looking at the Electoral Map, but let’s just speculate and take a look at it again mid July.
I’m using CNN’s electoral map and currently the numbers run like this:
Barack H. Obama - 153 Safe Electors/58 Leaning Electors
John Sidney McCain - 125 Safe Electors/69 Leaning Electors
I am assuming both candidates leaning electors will remain with their respective party. Here is what I think will happen:
Barack H. Obama will get the following states regardless of the Vice - Presidential pick:
- Ohio
- Iowa
- Wisconsin
John Sidney McCain will get the following states, with Governor Romney as the Vice - Presidential pick (which I don’t think will happen, but I really want to be proved wrong):
- Nevada
- Colorado
- Florida
- Virginia
- Missouri
- Michigan
- New Hampshire
- Minnesota
That brings the final count to:
Barack H. Obama - 248
John Sidney McCain - 264
Again, this is only an early prediction/speculation and a whole lot can change from here until November. I imagine the race will grow tighter.
Post if you see any discrepancies 
June 23rd, 2008 at 8:00 pm
If Romney’s on the ticket, I could see Colorado, Nevada and Michigan going to McCain. Remember Nevada’s Mormons are the reason Romney won there.
He might have Florida in the bag too, with his butt buddy Crist supporting him, though he probably holds less weight in the GE than in the primary.
VA and MO will be interesting to watch, states McCain needs to defend but Obama is very strong in and could pull off. Wouldn’t be surprised if one or both of those flip blue.
McCain sure is loved by those independents in NH, he could win there. But Minnesota will be a tough one, they didn’t even vote Republican when Reagan was the nominee. Sure the convention is there this year and Pawlenty is a popular Governor, but I still don’t know if McCain can take it.
June 23rd, 2008 at 9:53 pm
I agree with everything that Jake said. Minnesota is more than likely going to be in Obama’s column. If Mitt is not on the ticket Neveda, Colorodo, and Virginia will probably turn blue.
This election is going to be a landslide in one direction or the other. Both candidates are going after the exact same constituency, being the independents. GWB won by turning out the base. McCain does not have that advantage and has to rely on his own ability to articulate the differences between him an Obama. Pretty difficult to do when he has one foot in conservatism and the other in liberalism. Noting of course his recent comments regarding immigration and how to become energy independent through cap/trade system. Many voters out there might just get confused or think he’s disengenious.
June 23rd, 2008 at 9:56 pm
I don’t relish a Obama presidency, but it may just prove to be ‘intersting’ in a Jimmy Carter sort of way. Will Obama buy a sweater and have ‘fireside’ chats with us? Or, will we all have to shield our eyes from his shining savior like presence?
June 23rd, 2008 at 10:56 pm
I don’t agree that Ohio will go into Obama’s column, nor that Missouri/Virginia/Minnesota will go to McCain, even with Mitt on the ticket.
Virginia is VERY dicey these days for Republicans, with all of the government workers and Muslims now living in Northern VA. I drove through VA from Florida on the way to Toronto last week, and stopped in Washington DC for a couple of days. The # of Obama bumper stickers and signs in Fairfax County was frightening.
But I definitely agree that Nevada, Colorado, New Hampshire & Michigan go red with Mitt as the VP candidate.
June 24th, 2008 at 12:56 am
What about all those bigoted southern pro-Huck states that are traditionally red? They won’t go for McCain with Mitt on the ticket, will they?
June 24th, 2008 at 6:54 am
Well Leslie, that’s the question. They will have to choose between the “lesser of two evils” I guess. Vote for a black or a mormon? Wow, what a dilemma!
June 24th, 2008 at 9:02 am
Obama makes mistakes. Lots of them. Press shielding diminishes the closer we get to November. His opting out of public money was a big one. Obama will probably make another mistake in who he picks for v.p. (Webb). If McCain picks Romney, by
November it’ll be Team Competence vs. Team Greenhorns. That’s McCain’s safest bet to win it.
June 24th, 2008 at 9:23 am
I go back and forth between McCain pickin Mitt or not. It’s a good thing, and it could be a bad thing. McCain is an old guy, going up a penny that has been shined up to look to be worth more than it really is. Will the people buy the game? I’m praying that Obama picks Webb. A former ‘republican’ fired by Reagan as SecNav (FYI I served in USN when Webb was SecNav. He was short lived, due to his incompentence). Webb has so much baggage, it would be fun just for the daily bag opening on Webb and Obama! Will the south vote for Mitt? yea, they will. MOST there are not the bigots you think abound there. There are a few, and yes, they all voted for huckabee. And perhaps Huckabee will grow a class hair, and tell his handful of followers that it’s OK to vote for a Mormon, as contrary to his campaign, were not electing a pastor, but a president and vice president. That would go a long way, but he won’t do it. It would totally trash his aspirations for 12. But back to will they vote? Presented with the alternative, I think they will. People do strange things in the privacy of the voting booth. Mitt did fine in the south, considering what he was up against. Heck, he even won in VA, and did a very good show in FLA, until the last second Crist intervention and the backroom deal in VA. Those two states - large ones, at that - are in the ‘South’. McCain’s been told in Fla, that if he choses Mitt, the donation flood gates will open wide. Without Mitt, the pocket books stay shut. It’s also telling that Captain Zero (Obamaman) opted out of public funding. He thinks deep pockets are not coming McCain’s way,and he wants to flood the airwaves with Soro’s drivil and cash.
Owwww. My head hurts from thinking. I’m taking a kid break. Have fun.
June 24th, 2008 at 11:32 am
There’s no “Leave a Reply” space on the latest post “USA Today: Mitt Romney Most Popular Choice for VP in Either Party” so I’ll remind everyone here to vote for Mitt TODAY on the MSNBC poll (which was cancelled last week due to Tim Russert’s death).
Here’s the link:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/24955780
June 24th, 2008 at 12:25 pm
Thanks 2thePoint! I just came here to do the same thing! I voted! Mitt’s in the lead. Let’s keep him there!
June 24th, 2008 at 12:43 pm
The real fight will be in the Mid-West. With Mitt, McCain has a good chance for MI, WI, MO and OH. Our side will probably lose NM and CO. What’s really strange is the Obama Yo’ Mama gets 4-5 points more in polls than he actually gets in real votes. I suspect some of Obama’s polling numbers are just anti-Bush voters who may or may not actually vote for him.
June 24th, 2008 at 1:22 pm
Chris, as a 40-year resident of Florida, I heartily believe that donations from the Sunshine State would increase dramatically for McCain if he were so smart as to put Mitt on the ticket.
However, when you said Virginia, did you mean West VA?
Without Hillary on Obama’s ticket, McCain will win West VA for certain - with or without Mitt.
I generally think the South will go for McCain, although Virginia will be dicey, as I said earlier.
June 24th, 2008 at 2:33 pm
Yes, Marybeth. West VA.
And if huckles would get off his tuffet and say to his ‘flock’ that voting for a mormon is not a sin, it might work in the South for folks that wont vote without their preachers input. but he won’t do that. To do that, would mean he had a moment of class.
June 24th, 2008 at 3:55 pm
Sed:
I don’t think so. I think this will be a close race maybe even closer than we think. Unless Barack (more likely) does something stupid (again).
Copp:
Great point, Obama’s love affair with the press will eventually melt away.
The south will break Republican, no matter what. People vote for the person who is on top of the ticket. Plus, if Pastor Huckabee hangs out with McCain and Romney it would look like Huckabee has no problems with Mormons, which he will probably do later on in the year.
Really great commentary guys, got me thinking. Once the Vice - President’s are chosen, we will really get a strong grasp of how the Electoral Map will shape up.
June 24th, 2008 at 4:08 pm
I highly doubt Huckabee is going to start hanging out with Mitt anytime soon. He personally benefits from anti-Mormon bias, its basically the fuel behind whatever popularity he enjoys. People who claim they supported Huck over Mitt because of “flip-flopping” obviously weren’t paying attention to Huck flipping all over the place on immigration, taxes and foreign policy DURING the campaign. Huck is not going to give up his number one campaign issue for 2012, keeping Mitt out of the White House. What else does he have to run on? His hysterical tax record? His shady ethics record? His too-scary-to-be-funny crime-fighting record, or his college-dropout education and complete lack of understanding on most issues?
June 24th, 2008 at 4:21 pm
Well said,bigmo concerning Huck. He’s quite the package. Mitt is so more qualified for VP.I sure hate this waiting game. Obama’s having trouble with the muslims.I am worried about the race card, no matter what the rep. say, it will be viewed badly. It will be hard
for McCain to control his temper. He is going to get a workout this Fall.
June 24th, 2008 at 4:26 pm
Mitt’s leading with 70% of the votes cast at the MSNBC poll. Keep it up.
Though my hometown candidate is losing, this is a win for me, as this will keep Governor Pawlenty right where I need him, vetoing DFL authored tax hikes in Minnesota!!
FYI: DFL = Democratic-Farmer-Labor party. There wasn’t enough in any one constituency, so they had to band together. Ultimately, that is the definition of the Democratic Party anyway, so they could drop the redundant “FL” as “Democrat” = “Polyglot”.
June 24th, 2008 at 4:42 pm
I still think there was too much bad blood during the primaries between McCain and Romney for those two to be on the ticket together. The democrats will have deadly ammunition digging up all that video of the two going after each other. I think if the primaries had been more civil, Mitt would have been a shoe-in for VP, but Mitt was playing to win, and he went after McCain big-time, and vice versa. Remember how Huck was so careful not the attack McCain? He was clearly going after the VP spot from the beginning. But I don’t think Huck will be VP because McCain may lose Utah and some other western states if he does that. But Mitt is doing a good thing fully supporting McCain. He is setting himself up well for 2012. And if by some crazy set of circumstances, McCain walks away with the presidency, Romney will definately be in the McCain cabinet, hopefully as Secretary of State or Treasury.
June 24th, 2008 at 7:41 pm
Bigmo:
I meant on the campaign trail As two Republican candidates who are willing to look forward instead of back and help John McCain win the White House.
Paulee & Mike:
As long as McCain doesn’t go negative and maintains on the course he is on, we will do great in November. As for McCain’s temper, we don’t know for a fact he has a temper. We know he has been mad and yelled at fellow Republican/Democrats in Congress but haven’t we all cursed and screamed at one time or another. I’m not saying McCain is or was justified but come on now, McCain is human and you have to remember some old folk get mad easier haha. All joking aside, McCain has weaknesses like everybody else and unfortunately for McCain its his once in awhile temper tantrums.
June 24th, 2008 at 8:44 pm
Steve: It’s that once in a while temper tantrum I’m worried about. I think your right we are all human and loose our cool, but we are not running for President. I remember Mitt
referring that he would bring an even temperament to the White House. Mccain uses military cussing, I call it a potty mouth. Any how, he’ll have a growth experience, learning to control his temper. Actually, at times it’s good to have a temper. Maybe he can get Congress to listen up!!!! I saw lots of his weaknesses during the primaries. It’s okay, I’ll still vote for him only because Mitt has endorsed him, and I cannot for any reason vote for Obama!!!!!
June 24th, 2008 at 8:49 pm
I think Obama will make a great president, our country needs change and McCain brings the same old, same old. What has the last 8 years brought us? Inflation, the highest gas prices ever seen in this country, wars throughout the world, a true division between people and parties – I am an Independent and I, like many say, “it’s time for a make over”
June 24th, 2008 at 9:04 pm
Mark, out of mere curiousity, what makes you think Obama will make a great president?
June 24th, 2008 at 9:28 pm
Paulee & Mike:
Correct. I wish McCain didn’t have a temper but I guess you are right. Having a temper is a double - edged sword.
Mark:
Same old, same old? Please elaborate on this.
Are you blaming President Bush for all those problems? You can only blame him for the 2 wars going on right now.
There is a division between parties! That’s why I’m called Republican and you an Independent.
Appreciate your input Mark, nice to see some new refreshing visitors
June 24th, 2008 at 10:40 pm
Mark, Obama himself said that he WANTS the price of gas to go up, he only regretted that it went up all at once instead of more gradually. He believes it will lead people to drive less and lower carbon emissions. The fact that the price of just about EVERYTHING goes up when gas goes up, because things have to be shipped to stores in trucks, seems to escape him. If you think inflation is bad now, wait until Obama resurrects Jimmy Carter’s failed economic policies of the 1970s, do some research, they both have the same ideas, I don’t see why they would work this time when they made everything so much worse the last time. I’m not going to say McCain would be all that much better because I don’t believe he would. He’s got a lot of problems understanding the economy as well. Just do the research for yourself before you buy into Obama’s empty promises.
Steve, I meant on the campaign trail, privately or publicly. I just don’t think you will see them together. They might both help McCain, but I believe they will do so seperately.
June 24th, 2008 at 10:46 pm
Oh and on the topic of gas prices, the Democrats pledged in the 2006 congressional elections to lower the gas prices. Well, they were elected. Gas was in the mid 2 dollars a gallon then. Now its close to 5. You will find that Senators, Represenatives, even the President has very little to say about the price of oil, as we don’t own the oil. Its not ours. We buy it from other nations at whatever price they want to sell, because liberals such as Senator Obama won’t allow us to drill for it here.
June 25th, 2008 at 12:48 am
Cannon fell tonight to a newbie GOP type. Price of gas. Toss em all, I say. let’s clean the slate and make some of those fat cats go back and actually pay for their own gas.
June 27th, 2008 at 6:53 am
Drill here in this country! Get everyone on every possible technology possible. This world
is so vast. Good old supply and demand. The better technology should allow this country to safely do what we have to do!!!! It also needs to be yesterday! We are hearing LL Bean is laying off 250 in Oxford Me. More depression, gas is going up! UP! UP! Okay,
it seems it is all about the economy!!!!!! Washington wake up!!!! As far as I’m concerned
we have been failed. While they have been lining their pockets, the little guy still struggles to hold this country together. What a slap in the face. I’m mad!!! Clean house, Washington is not only broken, they are useless!!! $141.40 a barrel, do you believe it??