On the wire . . .
Campaign Update – March 10,2008
Joe Scarborough alluded to the subject of Hastert’s Illinois seat being lost. This morning on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe”, his analysis suggests that this may not bode well for the Republican Senate / Congress. He alluded to what he believes may be uphill sledding in the Senate that may produce 60 seats for the Democrats.
Scarborough thinks that this may be a watershed moment as John Podhoretz wrote about in Commentary. Here is the paragraph of Podhoretz views that lists the waves of political shifts:
“For a midterm election, what happened in 2006 was an uncommon event: a national wave. In the past half-century, there have been only two others like it, the first in 1974 when Democrats won 75 seats in the House and four in the Senate and the second in 1994. In all three cases, there was a single, identifiable, overwhelming reason for the loss. The 1974 election occurred in the wake of Watergate. The 1994 election took place in the wake of the effort by the Clinton administration to nationalize health care. And the 2006 election? It was decided not because of a few corrupt Republicans, or because Congress had spent a great deal, or because of a flawed immigration measure. It was decided by the fact that the United States was on the verge of suffering a cataclysmic defeat in war.”
David Freddoso of the National Review provides his analysis on the Hastert race may have something to do with the Republican record and a lack of any new rationale for voting Republican. While the article is specific to Illinois some within the Republican party believe that we are starting to see a trend emerge. Whether this pattern will be broken will depend on how McCain can shape the narrative for the upcoming election.
Freddoso observes that “The liberal Foster’s victory in this once-conservative district bodes ill for the GOP as a whole, but especially in Illinois. In three successive elections, Illinois Republicans managed to lose the governor’s mansion, the state legislature, the strongly Republican seat of former Rep. Phil Crane, and a U.S. Senate seat. Just over a week ago, New Lenox Mayor Tim Baldermann, the elected Republican nominee, abruptly withdrew from the race for the neighboring 11th District seat of retiring Rep. Jerry Weller.”
”With the odds strongly favoring Barack Obama’s name at the top of the Democratic ticket this year, a disastrous 2008 election looms for the Illinois GOP. It could bring the loss of at least four Republican House seats in Illinois and at least one more in 2012, after the intractably Democratic state legislature redraws the map.”
Freddoso also notes the cache that Obama can bring to the election.
“As Republicans look to lay blame for the loss, Foster deserves credit for his victory. After a month of exclusively negative advertising, Foster ran his first positive ad — an endorsement from Obama — in the campaign’s final week. It worked. Republicans nationwide should note that Foster’s association with Obama was very helpful to him.
Another thing Foster did right was to appeal beyond his left-wing base. His strategy targeted independents and even some Republicans — especially those from the district of Oberweis’s primary opponent, state senator Chris Lauzen. One of Foster’s mailings attacked Oberweis for slinging mud at his fellow conservative Republican. “
Dealing with how Presidential nominee John McCain may deal with the challenges posed by the Democrats, Patrick Basham of the National Review writes of a strategy that McCain could follow. This strategy would emphasize an appeal to the conservative base and general population. What McCain will need to do is distance himself from Bush and congress on taxes and economic issues, while promoting the successful resolution of the Iraq and Afghanistan wars. This will be a high wire act since McCain has a long record in the house and Obama, while inexperienced, embodies a fresh face. Sometimes, people may give a candidates experience and credentials a pass . . . however,
Bashim writes that “Clearly, John McCain does not need to camouflage his support for private health care, tax cuts, and spending restraints to be elected president. His real challenge (and, hence, his real opportunity) is to run against the high taxers, big spenders, and economic interventionists in both parties.
He needs to attack the back-to-the-future liberal economics espoused by Clinton and Obama, as well as the big-government conservatism practiced by his fellow Republicans on Capitol Hill. If Senator McCain charts that path, most voters will follow him.”em>
There is also another article by David Freddoso that details how McCain “deserves credit, not blame, for stopping Boeing’s sweetheart deal.”
March 10th, 2008 at 6:31 pm
Sort of on-topic, but sort of not . . .
Just saw on Brit Hume’s newscast that McCain is getting only 20-25% of what the Obamessiah and the Hildabeast have raised, and that he is going on a big fundraising blitz.
Hello, McCain camp? . . . conservatives are NOT going to financially support someone they will have to hold their nose to pull the lever for in November, if they even do that. Especially in an economic downturn.
McCain has to do better than giving lip service to some conservative principles and calling us “quote, conservatives” as he condescendingly did on Larry King. He gives us nothing to vote FOR.
And on a personal note, neither he nor the RNC will get a dime out of me unless he puts Mitt on the ticket.
March 10th, 2008 at 6:44 pm
Among other members the republican party in my area (Northeast Nevada), there just isn’t much excitement about John McCain. Party leaders are doing their job and telling everyone to “unite” but from the people I talk to, everyone is just on a “wait and see attitude”-no real enthusiasm.
If this is indicative of the rest of the nation, no wonder the republicans lost a seat in Illinois- hold on for the general election.
March 11th, 2008 at 7:38 am
Marybeth and Ross,
I concur whole-heartedly. McCain will not get one dime out of me as well, IF MITT ROMNEY is not on the ticket. If he is, I will pledge $500. I hope McCain’s people read these blogs and get a feel for what is in the mind and hearts of the true “Conservative” (Ok, Republican) Party.
If his VP is some fly by night person that we know nothing about, but in name only, McCain is TOAST. BURNT TOAST!
March 11th, 2008 at 5:09 pm
If McCain don’t pick Mitt, McCain will be burnt to a Crist.
March 11th, 2008 at 9:45 pm
Mary Beth:
WE concur - no M&M ticket no money or support. I have sent my thoughts and feelings to the McCain campaign and the RNC - we all need to do that and perhaps they will get the idea.
He needs Mitt - more importantly America needs Mitt in whatever capacity he can be - the VP takes him closest to the decision making circle and the possibility of the Presidency.
Send out the message far and wide to contact the McCain Campaign as well as the RNC which needs our money and support desperately. We do have influence and power - we just must stay on message, stick together and get that message to the McCain Campaign and the RNC - NOW and repeatedly until the fat lady sings.