Romney’s Ideal Victory
Hat Tip to Ranzel for bringing this excellent analysis to our attention. Mitt Romney is nailing down the Reagan coalition.
~~John Cronin~~
Romney’s Ideal Victory
By Chris Suellentrop
NEW YORK TIMES
Tags: Florida, John McCain, Mitt Romney
Does Mitt Romney have a victory to cling to in Florida? Joshua Trevino, vice president for public policy at San Francisco’s Pacific Research Institute (and one of the founders of the conservative blog RedState), breaks down the numbers on his personal blog.
“Mitt Romney is in a bad way,” Trevino writes. “He blew through $10 million in Iowa and lost; and outspent McCain eight to one in Florida, and lost that too. But for all this, Mitt Romney is not done yet and the reason lies in the breakdown of this evening’s Florida vote.” He continues:
CNN has the exit-poll numbers, and they reveal some surprising things:
* Romney won pro-lifers.
* Romney won the mainstream religious. (Huckabee won the very religious less than one-fifth of the pool.)
* Romney won the Protestants.
* Romney tied Huckabee with Evangelicals.
* Romney won the pro-GWB voters.
* Romney is the primary second choice of Giuliani voters, Thompson voters …. and McCain voters.
* Romney won the immigration hard-liners.
* Romney won the upper-middle class, earning between $100,000 and $200,000 annually.
* Romney won the terrorism-oriented voters.
* Romney won the self-identified conservatives and the self-identified very conservative.
* Romney won the values-oriented voters.
* Romney won the white voters.
* Romney won the tax-cutting voters.
In short, Mitt Romney won the Republican Party’s idea of itself and that, too, is a big deal. If you’re white, Protestant, anti-abortion, go to church on Sundays, think well of the President, want lower taxes, hate terrorists, make a good living, want to do something about immigration, and live in Florida, chances are you voted Romney. The question before Florida was whether McCain could win a closed Republican race, and now we know he can. The question now is whether he can win conservatives and in Florida, he did not.
January 31st, 2008 at 12:06 pm
Well, we know now that McCain won’t win any Asian voters. He seems to feel that “gook” is a word that can be thrown around even if he directed it towards his captors in Vietnam. Even though I believe political correctness has been taken too far in our country, as an American of Korean descent and a Republican, the word still stings when I hear it.
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/chronicle/archive/2000/02/18/MN32194.DTL
January 31st, 2008 at 12:36 pm
And McCain got all the southern immigrants — and there’s more of them now than us. Nuff said.
January 31st, 2008 at 12:47 pm
Stupid MSM (mainstream media):
http://www.captainsquartersblog.com/mt/archives/016821.php
Never underestimate how stacked against us the media is. Talk about a matrix!
January 31st, 2008 at 1:29 pm
I am not sure if this has been posted here before but here is a clip of McCain endorsing Romney back in 02.
http://utah.facebook.com/share_redirect.php?h=f794b80c363ce8607a7aea3d884c98d0&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.youtube.com%2Fwatch%3Fv%3DQA7JTDjG-Po&sid=8098659301
and remind me who the flip-flopper is?
January 31st, 2008 at 1:34 pm
This post was just referenced on Rush Limbaugh. Congrats, John! Would you mind cross-posting this one over at Show Me Mitt?
January 31st, 2008 at 1:39 pm
Rush was talking about how Mitt is on fire . . . angry about how McCain is portraying him. I really want to see that anger!!!!
January 31st, 2008 at 2:06 pm
Mitt is not going down without a fight….
http://floridianconservative.townhall.com/g/6858fdd5-b493-4de5-9e09-984cb42d28a3
January 31st, 2008 at 2:13 pm
I have only voted for Republican candidates for 50+ years. I will NEVER vote for McCain, he is a consummate liar. Go Mitt
January 31st, 2008 at 2:20 pm
Hey folks, how are we today. Got to share some thoughts with you and see what you think:
-First, could this country survive a Hillary or Obama presidency? Yeah, I’d say so.
-Second, I’m a bit of a political junkie and jump all over the net all the time. That said, on NUMEROUS blogs, and I mean too many to count, republican conservatives have vowed they WILL NOT vote for McCain under any circumstances. In fact, half would vote for the Dem in the race just to make a point. After much thought, and introspection, and lots of data I might add, I’m thinking IF McCain does get the nomination, that is exactly what will happen. The very conservative and conservative base will NOT show up for the General Election OR vote for another candidate. I have personally relayed this to both the Huckabee and McCain camp. They MUST be getting wind of this growing movement, and to be honest, based on the blatent dishonesty displayed by Sen. McCain recently, I know this conservative isn’t going to forget it……..what to do you believe? It’s a bit scary, wouldn’t you say? However, if the RNC and the republican politicians KNEW they must uphold the spirit of the republican party, would that re-constitute a stronger base for the 2012 election? Yes or No. Thanks for the time…….boats
January 31st, 2008 at 2:24 pm
As the MSM pushes their candidate, McCain down the collective throats of our party I feel completely sick to my stomach.
Right now I feel that I would rather lose the General with a real conservative (Mitt Romney) than win it with a fake Republican (McCain).
January 31st, 2008 at 2:26 pm
Its not just that Conservatives won’t show up at the polls, but who is that works the phones, doors, etc. and makes the difference in Nov. McCain’s moderates and INdy’s don’t work phone banks or put signs in their yards. Its conservatives that do that and send in the $25-$50 in donations that make a real difference in the fall, McCain will have none of that.
January 31st, 2008 at 2:29 pm
Wake up Mitt. Shove this in McCain’s face when he brings up timetables again:
From the International Herald Tribune, February 8, 2007:
“Another Republican resolution, proposed by Senator John McCain, gives the appearance of moving in that more promising direction by ticking off a series of policy benchmarks and then urging the Iraqi government to meet them.”
From the International Herald Tribune, January 27, 2007:
“Supporters of the president’s policy were also developing resolutions. Senator John McCain, Republican of Arizona, said he would propose giving the Iraqis a series of benchmarks to demonstrate progress. A draft proposal by Senator John Cornyn, Republican of Texas, said the U.S. ‘military leadership in Iraq should be given a reasonable chance to execute the new plan for Iraq.’”
From the Wall Street Journal, February 2, 2007:
“Sen Joseph Lieberman joins Sens John McCain and Lindsey Graham in introducing resolution in support of US military mission in Iraq and calling on Iraqi government to make progress toward 11 political, military and economic benchmarks.”
From the Christian Science Monitor, February 5, 2007:
“A competing resolution - sponsored by Sens. John McCain (R) of Arizona, Joseph Lieberman (I) of Connecticut, and Lindsey Graham (R) of South Carolina - calls on Congress to provide “the full support necessary” to carry out the US mission in Iraq, including 11 benchmarks it says the Iraqis must meet.”
Romney was saying the exact same thing except he also used the term “timetables” in addition to “benchmarks”
January 31st, 2008 at 2:34 pm
ive said many times in comments that it took 4 years of Jimmy Carter to get us Ronald Reagan,so 4 years of Hillary could be the medicine to reawaken our party to come back to the basics of smaller government lower taxes strong defense and a strong economy.I pray we don’t have to go through 4 years of Hillary because we have one of the most qualified candidates ever in Mitt Romney.That said if mccain gets the nomination I’ll be voting for Alan Keyes in the general who is considering a third party bid under the Constitution Party.I hope it doesn’t come to that but I just couldn’t live with myself if i voted for mccain or Hillary.
January 31st, 2008 at 2:42 pm
Hey, while New York isunlikely to be seriously in play next week, can anyone think of ways to gain Mitt some positive exposure elsewhere, here locally, where the MSM is so DENSE? Is showing up at a McCain Rally with Mitt signage considered bad?
I have some medial contacts, and am trying to get some free exposure (other than the banner in my brownstone window).
Steven
January 31st, 2008 at 2:43 pm
bethtopaz: I agree with you. Let’s just vote dem and let the republicans get their act together. The MSM wants John McCain so it will make the party more liberal — like them — so that dems and republicans are indistinguishable. They are begging for republicans to move collectively to the left. I heard it on CNN all night. That’s why they like McCain. Too bad Huck is in there blowing it for Romney, because he may have had a shot to gather the conservatives without him standing in the way.
January 31st, 2008 at 2:47 pm
Leslie,
It ain’t over . . . it is time to kick ass.
SteveinNYC
Do whatever you can . . . in NYC, hmmmm . . . financial center - try the economy
January 31st, 2008 at 2:59 pm
Yes, but “doing what I can” won’t necessarily make Mitt look good. Showing up at someone else’s even might give a bad impression, i.e., one of desperation or nut job’ishness. (not that I am about to, but, e.g., parading in front of the Today Show window might, or might not look good, or whatever…so looking for some creative, constructive ideas).
(I still remember, in college, when I was still pretty much a dope, in 1984, sneaking into a Reagan rally with a Mondale banner–that was fun, and stupid, but you grow up eventually)
By the way, does anyone know if anyone in Mitt’s inner circle monitors the several blogs of of this genre? Seems to me that someone who sought to have outsiders come up with commericals would, but…
January 31st, 2008 at 3:00 pm
I wonder if Mitt’s seeming lack of aggressiveness in the debate last night is/was intentional or just not his style ever….
January 31st, 2008 at 3:10 pm
“IF” McDemocrat happens to win the Nominee position on the Republican Ticket, does that mean that Governor Romney is OUT? Help me out here, (?) can Romney continue running for President even though he is not the R. Nominee? What about a write-in come November? If JM has Kerry or Leiberman as his VP (the Rep base will be hostile at that time), why can’t we vote for Romney in the General Election under “write-in”? Is this possible? If so, wouldn’t that be a first in America? I can see the headlines now, “Romney wins Presidency as a write-in”. Go MITT………………….
January 31st, 2008 at 3:12 pm
Mitt lacked aggression last night because he’s a republican. You can only go so far before you alienate other republicans. If John McCain were ever to get to the oval office, (less than a 50% chance I see) Mitt may want to be a part of that administration. He may need John McCain one day, so he couldn’t really really go after him.
January 31st, 2008 at 3:14 pm
Maybe someone should creat a website for conservatives to go on and sign a statement that we will not support McCain as the nominee of our party. I bet many conservatives would be willing to sign and it could create some news before supertuesday.
January 31st, 2008 at 3:14 pm
In California, two recent polls have narrowed the gap between McCain and Romney… here’s hoping that after last night’s display of “the REAL McCain” more people will wake up and realize who to vote for!!
January 31st, 2008 at 3:14 pm
I honestly think that if Mitt took off the gloves and really slammed McCain, the conservative base would cheer!!!!
January 31st, 2008 at 3:24 pm
Dear Huckabee supporters!
If you want Huckabee to get his far share of news time let your voices be heard. We need to bombard the networks with emails. We believe Huckabee can still win! Stand up for what you believe in and stop letting news decide the candidates!
A place to start:
hannity@foxnews.com
Don’t stop at TV shows, email newspapers, family, friends, and senators too! Go Huckabee!
January 31st, 2008 at 3:25 pm
Marybeth, I agree. Take it from an 30 year navy vet, you gotta check your pulse occassionally, nothing wrong with a good fight once in a while to make sure you got all your oars in the water.
Question, is CALIFORNIA (to be referred to as the land of fruits and nuts in the near future) a split delegate primary? yes or no?
January 31st, 2008 at 3:44 pm
I’m not going to come at you sideways here. I am a Huckabee supporter. Before you starting spewing, just let me make a comment please. I understand why so many people support Mitt. I want just as badly as you do to put John McCain to sleep. Now, just a heads up. Mitt cannot in anyway win the South. I lived in the South my entire life, so I know. He attracts too much suspicion for various reasons. If Mitt keeps attacking Huck, Huck supporters WILL go to McCain and McCain will sweep the South. This is simple logic. Huck supporters in the South will NOT flock to Mitt. Mitt is unelectable, sorry. Just think about it and pass it on. If Mitt waits too long, Mac will not be stopped! Mike is the only chance to take it to the White House…..
January 31st, 2008 at 4:02 pm
ITS TIME FOR THE GLOVES TO COME OFF!!!
If Romney wants to win this election he needs to start standing up for his record. The liberal media is making a joke of Romney. Have you seen Chris Mathews on hardball this month? He constantly makes fun of Romney acting like he has changed his position on everything and that he keeps doing so, and that he has done it recently.
I would love to see Romney go on hardball and set the record straight. Romney needs to turn the tables; he needs to ask Mathews the questions. He should ask him when he changed his position on abortion; it wasn’t recently. He needs to ask him if it has been changed multiple times, he needs to go down the list of what people think are flip-flops. He needs to challenge Mathews on this like he has McCain on the timetables issue.
The way they portray Romney is a joke and I think he should call them out on it, yes he has changed some of his positions, but so has everybody else. Look at McCain on Illegal Immigration, and on Taxes. He has changed on those issues within the last month. At least Romney changed his issues while he has still a governor and some even before then.
There our a lot of independents that watch MSNBC, if I didn’t know Romney’s true position on the issues and was first introduced to Romney by watching hardball then I two would think he was a joke. They portray Romney like McCain does in one of his ads as swaying in the wind constantly changing positions.
The mainstream liberal media is already against him, so I don’t see how this could hurt him. And it could really help him. If Mathews has any ethics at all then maybe he will stop attacking Romney so much. Also just picture the headlines of true conservative newspapers. Romney Stands up against the Liberal Media. Romney sets the record straight, Romney takes the gloves off.
Romney has stood back to long and let the liberal media portray him as a joke. What were a few changes on his positions have now become, at least to the liberal media, that he changes his positions back and forth with the wind.
January 31st, 2008 at 4:07 pm
Miguel- A lot of repulicans would sign that and I think it would draw attention to the fact that McCain is not the true conservative in the race. That could be priceless. We have to be heard and maybe the media would consider this an important story and pick it up. We would need to do this before February 5th. Their is a lot of people who do not feel they can vote in this election if McCain is the nominee. ATTENTION VIC WHAT DO YOU THINK? WE WOULD NOT WANT TO HURT GOVERNOR MITT ROMNEY. WE JUST WANT A CANDIDATE WHO WOULD REPRESENT OUR CONSERVATIVE VALUES.
January 31st, 2008 at 4:17 pm
Romney wouldn’t lose the general. Just say NO to McCain.
January 31st, 2008 at 4:18 pm
And to punish yourselves each time you doubt Romney will be the nominee, you must donate $25 and 1 hour of phone time to the campaign every time the thought crosses your mind.
January 31st, 2008 at 4:45 pm
“IF” McDemocrat happens to win the Nominee position on the Republican Ticket, does that mean that Governor Romney is OUT? Help me out here, (?) can Romney continue running for President even though he is not the R. Nominee? What about a write-in come November? If JM has Kerry or Leiberman as his VP (the Rep base will be hostile at that time), why can’t we vote for Romney in the General Election under “write-in”? Is this possible? If so, wouldn’t that be a first in America? I can see the headlines now, “Romney wins Presidency as a write-in”. Go MITT………………….
Is there anyone that can answer this for me?
January 31st, 2008 at 5:06 pm
It is certainly possible to write-in Mitt during the general election. If McCain wins, I would reccomend it if there’s no viable third party option. Mitt won’t win that way, not enough people would do it. But it would send a better message than voting for a Dem in protest. The Republican party would just think Dems were even MORE popular and would respond by leaning further left.
January 31st, 2008 at 7:22 pm
Here’s an email from an exchange between me and a local NPR reporter that has interviewed me in the past (gist, Huckabee is the spoiler that brought Mitt down, and stays in the race to only serve this purpose). He was asking me about what religious bias I’ve seen in the campaign:
Last week I learned of some Christmas cards sent to voters in South Carolina that were supposedly from Governor Romney (I haven’t heard who sent them, but they were pretty blatant). I also heard second hand rumors of some of the last minute Robo calls in Florida against Governor Romney (in addition to those that included misleading statements, there were apparently others that played off of voter misgivings about his faith. That would be the polite way of reporting what I’ve heard). Again, unsubstantiated, but unfortunate if true. Interesting that none of this stuff seems to make the headlines anywhere. Finally, I have waded through an increased number of anti Mormon posts and comments on the blogs I’ve been following. I call this Blog sniping: posting defamatory statements on the Blog of a rival candidate. Not a crescendo, but a definite undercurrent that has picked up during the Florida primary. (I’ve read some claims that the flip flop label is a front used by those with a religious bias, but I find that to be a mischaracterized oversimplification and mention it only in passing).
When I read Governor Romney’s Faith in America speech, I’m reminded how his religion should not be an issue. This is and should be a job interview for his qualifications for President. Am I too naïve about this? As I suggested in our interview, however, I believe Governor Huckabee used religion in Iowa to appeal to a targeted segment of the Republican party, but that this strategy would not play well in future primaries. His first and only spoiler victory in Iowa blunted any momentum for Governor Romney, but as I predicted, Governor Huckabee has not finished well in most of the contests since. His continued campaign seems to serve only to siphon just enough votes to change the outcomes for the other frontrunners. He or his supporters may or may not be responsible for all faith-based activity that has happened since Iowa, but in Iowa it began.
I post this here to encourage you all to reach out to opinion shapers to try and get some coverage on these topics. I’m glad to hear that Rush played the McCain endorsement of Romney. Let’s all pitch in and do likewise.
I like the “Will Not Vote” list. Sign me up.
January 31st, 2008 at 7:28 pm
And about last night’s debate, people in California do watch TV (go figure, and unlike Floridians, apparently). With the writers strike, that was the only ticket in town. That should play well with the poll numbers.
To those Huck supporters that won’t go to Mitt, you are the minority. Michigan proved that there are more willing to support Governor Romney than the other way around. So I invite you to get behind the only one that can swing this back and derail the Double Talk Express. Governor Romney is our last hope.
January 31st, 2008 at 7:31 pm
Oh, and don’t believe those that say go third party to send a message. That’s just undercover Democrats talking. (I’m sure they are all hoping with glee.)
Huckabee could put an end to this nonsense, but his ego and the unholy alliance with McCain won’t allow it.
January 31st, 2008 at 8:33 pm
Isn’t it time to start talking and planning for a THIRD PARTY. And who better to lead it and take up the fight than MITT ROMNEY? Isn’t the message already loud and clear that he stands not to be appreciated and, in fact, to be undermined by the very same Washington insiders whom he wants to scatter into the hinterlands. Isn’t it clear that a campaign with two nearly identical candidates, McCain and Hillary, would be a wide opening for a conservative campaign. This is the year a THIRD PARTY just might prevail.
I have not known about Mitt for more than a year, when I first saw him on CSPAN articulately expounding on his health care scheme. I am, by the way, not a Mormon, and not even an active religious person. But I have not supported a Democrat since, as a teenager, I worked for JFK.
BUT, if McCain wins the Republican nomination, and the Republican Party allows itself to have been “destroyed” and “neutered” by the Mainstream Media [because that's just what the situation will have been if McCain prevails], I will NOT vote for McCain or even work for McCain. In fact, if it comes down to it, I might even vote for Obama over McCain. McCain is too much of a mental case, a degenerate, lying sleaze, the worst of the old Washington Politics and the disease which afflicts our nation.
Yet, if there were a third Party…of a conservative stripe….I would vote for that Party and frankly I believe that a Third Party could actually win an election against the other two, if it were Hillary and McCain. Anyway, that is the only scenario whereby I would not have been totally disenfranchised by the Mainstream Media.
I would love to see Mitt Romney, if he doesn’t prevail in the Republican Primary, run as an Independent. He has the organization, he has the resources, he has the name recognition and he has a large core of Conservative Americans with no place to go. Just a fantasy, you say. But stranger things have happened.
What does he need in order to achieve that? It’s very simple. All he needs is a couple of first group and website to emerge somewhere in the US, a simple political group and announce that they will seek to draft him, to encourage him to run as an Independent if McCain wins, because they cannot stomach McCain. This group will get endless free press and publicity and coverage….and it will be a constant reminder to all Republicans that McCain is an anathema and that his nomination will destroy the party. That is all that is required…and, of course, would have to set itself up and operate independently of the Romney campaign, just a grass roots movement urging him to stay in the race,….ALL THE WAY. The firestorm of press attention plus a good website to solicit contributions would immediately attract millions of Conservatives
Please think about this, folks. It IS an option. And one which can be easily done. Astonishingly easy to do. If things don’t work out for Mitt after Super Tuesday, that group could be up and running and with millions of dollars of financing in a week or two…..
January 31st, 2008 at 9:13 pm
I thought that the speech given by President Thomas Whitmore (Bill Pullman) in the movie Independence Day would be appropriate. I’ve made some changes to fit us Romney supporters:
Good evening. In less than a week, we along with others Super Tuesday voters will join together. And we will be voting in the most important election in the history of mankind. “Mankind.” That word should have new meaning for all of us on February fifth. Republicans we can’t be consumed by our petty differences anymore. We will be united in our common interests. Perhaps it’s fate that in less than a week it will be February fifth, and you will once again be fighting for our freedom… Not from tyranny, oppression, or persecution… but from John McCain. We are fighting for our right to live. To exist. And should we win that day, the Fifth of February will no longer be known as Super Tuesday, but as the day the Republican Party declared in one voice: “We will not go quietly into the night!” We will not vanish without a fight! We’re going to live on! We’re going to survive! Today we celebrate President Mitt Romney!