Mitchell Poll Out Today Shows Mitt Ahead
H/T to reader Marybeth! I am generally very skeptical of the polls. However, Mitchell polling has an excellent track record of predicting the winner.
Romney Takes 2% Lead Over McCain in Florida, Giuliani Takes Over Third Place Alone
Romney 34%, McCain 32%, Giuliani 13%, Huckabee 10% EAST LANSING, Mich.— U.S. Sen. John McCain, who had a 2% lead after polling Sunday night, now finds himself trailing former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney 34%-32% according to results of a telephone poll conducted Sunday and Monday nights January 27-28, 2008. Rudy Giuliani, who was tied with Mike Huckabee at 12%, has now taken a 3% lead over Huckabee (13%-10%). Ron Paul has 3%, and 7% are undecided..
The telephone poll of likely voters in the Florida Republican Primary Election was conducted by Mitchell Interactive, an East Lansing, Michigan and Washington, DC based national political polling and market research company. The survey of 964 likely Republican Presidential Primary voters has a margin of error of +-3.16% at the 95% level of confidence.
“This is basically a dead heat. Romney gained a point since last night while McCain dropped 3%. A major change came from those who have already voted. On Sunday night, Romney and McCain were tied among the 33% who said they already voted. After Monday night’s polling, Romney had a 9% lead among those voters. Romney also cut McCain’s lead among those who say they will be “definitely voting” from 4% in Sunday’s polling to 2% at the end of polling on Monday night,” Steve Mitchell, president of Mitchell Interactive said.
Romney leads by less than 1% with women but has a 3% lead with men, who comprise 53% of the voters.
Romney leads with 60 year old plus voters by 1% (on Sunday night he trailed by 1%) and leads among 40-59 year olds by 5% (on Sunday night he led by 2%). McCain has a lead with 18-39 year old voters, but they make up the smallest age demographic.
“It looks as though this we will not know the winner of the Florida Republican Primary until all the votes have been counted,” Mitchell concluded.
Mitchell Interactive’s final poll in South Carolina showed McCain winning by 3%, he won by 3%. In Michigan, the company was the only pollster polling during the last week to have Romney ahead. Its final poll had Romney leading by 6%, he won by 9%.
January 29th, 2008 at 1:57 pm
Oh, my first hat tip ever from the Internet - thank you!
I have a pretty good feeling about Mitt’s chances tonight
January 29th, 2008 at 2:10 pm
I just hope the working people who don’t get off early don’t rely too much on the exit polls when they go into vote, because McCain has an advantage with seniors, I’ve heard.
January 29th, 2008 at 2:22 pm
My prediction a 2-3% Mitt victory stands!
January 29th, 2008 at 2:29 pm
oh please oh please oh please… i have my fingers crossed….
have you heard the reports that in a south florida polling place they let an independent change his party affliation on the spot (illegal) and vote for mccain?????
January 29th, 2008 at 2:51 pm
Drudge and Rush both picked up on the story of at least one Independent allowed to vote for McCain.
http://www.sun-sentinel.com/sfl-129electionday,0,6968764,print.story
January 29th, 2008 at 2:56 pm
Joe, I read that story, I wonder where those instructions came from. Anyhow, I still think Mitt will win this one. I love how CNN says that the race will be up in the air if he does. It won’t of course, it will solidify him as the front runner though they’ll never admit it.
January 29th, 2008 at 2:59 pm
I heard that. Just remember that Mitt won Michigan by 9% despite the fact that independents were allowed to vote there.
January 29th, 2008 at 3:36 pm
Predict the Result in Florida and Win!
Redstate.com readers are overwhelmingly predicting a Romney victory. This incredibly unscientific, and frankly quite silly contest underscores the reality that all we can do now is pray for the safety of all the workers (yes, even McCain’s), and wait. Give it a look for fun. Go Mitt!!!
January 29th, 2008 at 3:50 pm
I wonder if the Governor would have enough pull to give out instructions like that…
January 29th, 2008 at 3:59 pm
OK folks, the answer is the independent who changed his party affiliation at the polls should NOT have been allowed to vote. If you google the florida election procedures, this individual must have been a registered REPUBLICAN by 31 Dec 07. End of story. It’s pretty clear as far as the rules. Desoto county in Florida even has a FAQ section describing this exact scenario and discusses the fact that, party affiliation had to have been registered by 31 DEC 07. In short, if in fact it occured, someone is dead wrong in allowing that individual to cast a vote for McCain…..Boats
January 29th, 2008 at 3:59 pm
Intrade futures have McCain at 63, Romney at 35. It’s not looking good, IMHO…..not looking good one bit.
January 29th, 2008 at 4:17 pm
Mitt all the way tonight.
My prediction for what is worth:
Mitt 38%
McCain 27%
Guilliani 15%
Huckabee 12%
Paul 7%
January 29th, 2008 at 4:18 pm
My prediction for tonight:
Romney 38%
McCain 27%
Guilliani 15%
Huckabee 12%
Paul 7%
January 29th, 2008 at 4:20 pm
InTrade is never wrong. So…either all the InTraders are drinking the MSM kool-aid or they know something we don’t.
January 29th, 2008 at 4:20 pm
intrades numbers go up and down every day and aren’t very reliable.don’t put too much stock in them Mark
January 29th, 2008 at 4:24 pm
Intrade was wrong about Obama in New Hampshire, but they are ALMOST never wrong. There’s still hope at this point. When the polls close in Florida, that’s the time to look to Intrade.
January 29th, 2008 at 4:24 pm
I don’t like to kill the positive vibe thing, but I’m not very optimistic… And I see you’ve all seen the story already. It looks like we’re playing against a stacked deck in this “closed” primary. Market numbers are going against us hard….
January 29th, 2008 at 4:43 pm
The are problems in any election. We should absolutely not get discouraged but the problems with independants voting are likely very small numbers to make a significant change.
Not sure why intrade trending to McCain but that might change as the day goes by. All the polls of the last 24 hours show the race with a close neck and neck tie or 2 of them with a big Romney lead. I still thing Romney will win tonight by a significant margin. Intrade is usually right but it is also usually obvious who is going to win any specific race. Neck and neck races like this one are much harder to predict for anyone.
January 29th, 2008 at 4:44 pm
Right now its 55 to 39 in favor of McCain at Intrade. Not exactly good for Mitt, but at least the gap has narrowed. McCain has dropped about 8 points in the last few minutes.
January 29th, 2008 at 4:49 pm
Come on!! Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor???? Intrade works just as scientifically as “Win a Giuliani Lighter”. Unless they have people on the ground reporting in, this is not over. Turning Romney cap inside out – placing back on head. Join me!!!
January 29th, 2008 at 4:50 pm
It could be that the panhandle, heavy military, came in strong for McCain early vice late. Ergo, looks like it could be leaning McCain’s way early. Hopefully this gap closes sooner than later. By the way , independents ARE NOT allowed to vote in this primary. Simple as that, so, if any votes were cast by independents they should be tossed….Boats
January 29th, 2008 at 4:51 pm
What are you worry about?
You should be happy today that Mitt is doing extremely well in polls. I believe if polls are very tight then it would be Mitt period. No plays or no excuses. I am going to have proscuitto and fresh mozzarella sandwich to celebrate tonight!
January 29th, 2008 at 4:57 pm
Another thought, the over 60 crowd will get into the polls first. The 20,30, 40ish and 50ish crowd later, why? Because they are working. I’m thinking this one is not over till it’s over…..hang in there folks, you just can’t trust anything till the “fat lady sings”…Boats
January 29th, 2008 at 4:57 pm
Well, I’m wondering if I’m going to spend tonight wondering how many votes Jeb’s “neutrality” was worth…
One thing I can say though, is this is the year of no momentum. Romney has taken some great strides forward in many national polls over the past week. He even leads nationally according to Rasmussen. Even if he doesn’t win tonight Romney could always surprise on Feb. 5 if he find a way past the “must win Florida” mantra.
January 29th, 2008 at 5:01 pm
Wow… I never knew the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor…. ;P
I have thought for a long time that the media would marginalize FL if Romney wins it, despite their calling it the “new SC”. Well it seems they are getting the feeling of a Romney win because before I headed to school this morning CNN said something about how the name calling between Romney and McCain has somehow suddenly made FL irrelevant for the GOP too. Funny since 1) Romney hasn’t been engaging McCain (other than asking for an apology) and 2) how does McCain’s childishness suddenly make FL irrelevant anyhow?
The only answer is they smell a Romney win and they’d rather back-peddle now than after the win like they had to with MI.
January 29th, 2008 at 5:03 pm
I guess I should mention, all of that being said and even considering the orders to have indies vote a party, I’m pretty sure Romney will win and am not that nervous (anxious though? yes).
January 29th, 2008 at 5:14 pm
Early exit polls expected in about an hour. That’ll be the time to watch the markets. I’ll say that if Romney is close, he can win, from the assumption that the early numbers will include most of McCain’s senior vote. That was when the markets got interesting before SC. Huckabee was leading slightly during the early part of the day, then McCain jumped when the early numbers were leaked.
January 29th, 2008 at 5:15 pm
Mitt will win by 4+ points. Enthusiasm is building behind Mitt while the antics of McCain this weekend have turned many off. Add to the mix that many of the Fred supporters are turning to Mitt. Also, there will be some of both Huckabee and Rudy supporters voting for Mitt because they may feel there vote will be wasted since it’s winner take all. McCain may have gotten a decent number of support from other camps, but after the tactics the McCain camp has been engaged in recently, many will see McCain in a very different light. It will be inpossible to get that support back once people see him as another Washington politician trying to get elected at all cost as opposed to a war hero. That war hero image gets tarnished quickly when engaging in deceit. Don’ be surprised if the margin of victory is higher than most think.
January 29th, 2008 at 5:17 pm
I was watching Fox, and the reporter at the Romney HQ’s said that when the voting was going on in New Hampshire there was not many smiles from Mitt volunteers, but today he said he is seeing a lot of smiles from the volunteers at the phone banks in Florida.
January 29th, 2008 at 5:21 pm
JOEY and others, independents CANNOT vote for a democrat or republican. Nor can non-party voters (no affiliation at all). Independents CAN vote for non-partisan elections, judges, city council etc…etc…property tax amendments etc……….whatever was put out on Rush Limbaugh, while it may have occurred, quite simply should NOT have occurred. It’s against the state of Florida’s election rules………..Boats
January 29th, 2008 at 5:25 pm
Couple good links (good for us at least!) from TV and newspaper unofficial and unscientific exit polls:
http://naplesnews.com/news/2008/jan/29/exit-polls-find-out-whos-leading-share-you-opinion/
Granted, Naples (IMHO) is Romney country.
but what about this one?
http://www.wjhg.com/news/headlines/14763522.html
I’m not real clear on this, but wouldn’t Bay County (Panama City and Tyndall Air Force Base) be considered more McCain country - or Huckabee country since it’s in the Panhandle with lots of evangelicals?
January 29th, 2008 at 5:29 pm
And let’s hope lots of Floridians feel the same way about the Crist endorsement as this lady:
http://www.pensacolanewsjournal.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080129/NEWS01/80129030
January 29th, 2008 at 5:29 pm
Re: Smiles @ HQ
Conversely, they are probably frowning or at least feeling very uneasy over @ the Replublocat HQ of McCain. We aw the signs they new tonight might not go their way this weekend when they resorted to attacking Mitt. The writing was on the wall—should be a good night ahead for Mitt.
January 29th, 2008 at 5:33 pm
I’m optimistic many Floridians will check their facts on what McCain has been spewing lately and realize he is lacking a few good character traits lately and that Mitt is truly the better choice.
http://www.factcheck.org/elections-2008/mccain_ads_attack_romney.html
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GO MITT!
January 29th, 2008 at 5:38 pm
Some of the last polls to close are in Panhandle are suppose to be McCain territory due to military dominance in that region. So initial exit polls will hopefully go heavily to MR to offset the late results which would most likely favor McCain.
January 29th, 2008 at 5:40 pm
For the non-mathematical types out there, the Naples numbers go as follows:
ROMNEY- 47.5%
McCain- 29%
exit poll of 225 voters
January 29th, 2008 at 5:58 pm
1st inning = Huckabee
2nd inning = McCain
3rd inning = Romney
4th inning = Romney
5th inning = Romney
6th inning = McCain
7th inning = Florida (game call?)
8th inning = Super Tuesday and beyond (game call?)
9th inning = Convention (game call)
January 29th, 2008 at 6:03 pm
Can we please put that old “Mean John McCain” back in the senate where he belongs, and maybe he will retire soon.
January 29th, 2008 at 6:08 pm
http://www.540wfla.com/pages/bud_hedinger .html
He had Mitt on earlier for an interview and just loves him. He’s telling everyone to go vote and for those that are Huck/Giuliani guys…he’s telling them to go vote for Mitt. He’s going to replay his interview in a minute. One caller was a Huckster and switched to Mitt today because he doesn’t want McCain.
Good stuff.
January 29th, 2008 at 6:09 pm
Mike, what are you trying to say with all the baseball analogy?
January 29th, 2008 at 6:18 pm
Hey braddahmike, that name sounds “local” as in hawaiian islands style. Nice take, nice to hear….Boats
*I spent years and years out in the islands on fast boats, anytime I hear “braddah”, brings back hawaii….course on the ‘mainland’ I guess it could be “jamaicaman”..
January 29th, 2008 at 8:17 pm
Huh?