comMITTed to Romney!

McCain’s got a problem (and look at Intrade!)

McCain’s Developing Florida Problem

Take a look at Carl Cameron’s latest post on the Fox News website, in which he acknowledges Mitt’s Florida surge and praises Mitt’s campaign. He’s not calling Mitt the winner yet, but acknowledges it’s quite possible given the surge in the polls and Mitt’s organization.

Here are a couple quotes:

Polls show Mitt Romney could win the Florida Primary. John McCain is under attack, much as he was in 99 and 00. Rudy Giuliani’s slide appears to have halted - so far there is no sign of an uptick out of third.

The timing may be perfect for Romney. His business experience is proving a great asset with the economy dominating much of the contest. He is a tireless, disciplined, smart campaigner. His aides and strategists are top notch. His policies eare fully developed. His rhetoric is tight. His Florida campaign is centered in the triangle between Jacksonville, Orlando, and Tampa where they expect about 57% of the GOP votes to be.

Romney in so many ways has done it the old fashioned way. Any successful candidate in a competitive race for office is going to initially need three things; Message, Money and Organization. Check.
When running for president add; get to Iowa and New Hampshire early and often, have a reasonable claim to your party’s political base in the early states, don’t be the early front-runner, take some risks, survive a few bad patches with a comeback, have dumb luck, then time your peaks for when people are in voting booths. Check, Check, Check, Check.

What about McCain? Carl acknowledges he’s having a hard time converting the Republican base, but doesn’t count him out (and we shouldn’t, either):

Now republicans coast to coast are unleashing on McCain: wrong on the Bush tax cuts, amnesty, campaign finance reform. He collaborates too often, they say, with Ted Kennedy et al. And for years in the senate they say he has been an unreliable republican, largely disliked for angry outbursts and bullying.

Wait. Because McCain is highly respected by the public his rivals are loath to attack hard. Enter the anti-McCain forces. They range from Rudy and Romney boosters to the uncommitted. The only common denominator is they appear to detest McCain. DO NOT rule McCain out. Seniors and veterans and retirees LOVE HIM. There is still some South Carolina wind in his sails. It is a tossup.

More on Mitt’s well-oiled campaign (emphasis added):

As for Governor Romney; Michigan fine tuned his economic message and its clicking in Florida. He has run a text book air war. Several months ago he began with bio ads. They evolved into issue ads. Those turned to contrast ads. Then back to bio ads and now closing arguments. No other candidate came close to such a well run campaign. When the message needed to evolve, it did. When he lost in Iowa and New Hampshire adjustments followed.

Sure he has probably spent more than $30 million of his own money but since when is personal wealth (and spending it) a problem among republicans?

In discussing Mitt’s alleged “flips,” Carl says the following (again emphasis added):

Sure he has flip-flopped on key GOP issues in the last five years, but his bent has been decidedly rightward and his rivals have plenty of policy deviations from GOP orthodoxy of their own.

Intrade’s latest

These numbers vary all the time, but as of a moment ago when I checked, Intrade had Mitt’s odds winning at twice those of McCain’s. A contract for Mitt to win Florida was at 60, while McCain at 30 (roughly 2:1 odds Mitt over Mac), where a 100 is the odds being 100% certain of a win. People out there are feeling the wave!

Keep it up folks, we still need to pull out ahead and there are only a few days left. And McCain, feeling the squeeze, is on the attack.

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