What happens to the Fred-heads once/if Fred drops out?
January 20th, 2008 Posted in 2008, Conservatism, Conservative, Dropping Out, Endorsement, Endorsements, F. Thompson, F. Thompson, Fred Thompson, John McCain, John McCain, Mitt Romney, Mitt Romney, Townhall, Victor Lunquist
Interesting comment thread over at Townhall.com. It’s still early, but it looks like Mitt could be a real beneficiary if Fred throws in the towel.
Best case scenario: Fred drops out and endorses Mitt
Second best case scenario: Fred drops out and endorses nobody
Neutral case scenario: Fred drops out and endorses McCandidate (I think most Fred-Heads are smart enough to realize McCain’s flaws)
Worst case scenario: Fred stays in, dies a slow and painful death, and siphons off enough votes to enable a McCandidate/Duckabee ticket which goes on to lose to the Dems.
Taking a page from Vic Lundquist…let’s all make nice with the Fred-heads and join forces to stop McCandidate!
January 20th, 2008 at 11:41 am
I’m no fan of McOrnery. However Fred and McCain are old friends from the senate in spite of huckabees drool its just as likely McCain would pick Fred as his VP over huck.
Of course that would be called the “grumpy old men” ticket and rightfully so. IMO Fred would be better served as Mitt’s VP. Of course self-destruction in the name of game in politics.
January 20th, 2008 at 3:48 pm
I supported Fred because to me he was the most substantive candidate and best representative of traditional conservative values in this field. With that said, after winning South Carolina and out of respect for the voters of SC, McCain and Romney are now the standard bearers of traditional conservatism left in the field. I will have to say that Romney and McCain were my 2nd choices, with me more leaning towards Romney when he won MI and now leaning back to McCain after his victory in SC. I will say that in FL, it will come down to who has the best strategy, as both McCain and Romney have very strong messages–one with a national security/foriegn policy credentials and the other with strong economic credentials. Which issue is more important in 2008? It’s a wash in my opinion, so I say it comes down to strategy and turnout operations.
In terms of strategy I believe Romney has an interesting one. I think Romney believes that Giuliani and McCain are vying for the same voters and that they will divide that base of voters and permit him to consolidate conservative support. I think this explains why Romney forfeited SC and gave a tacit endorsement of McCain in SC. With Fred and Huckabee in the field, the conservative vote was fractured/divided. This permitted McCain to win as he always wins with the independent vote. IN FL, independents are not allowed to vote, only registered Republicans. So with Fred and Huckabee (Huckabee is looking at GA for his next win) down and pretty much out, Romney believes he can consolidate conservatives and have Giuliani and McCain split their base of support.
McCain strategy is to appeal to the military and the Cuban-American communities, both traditionally strong conservative constituents in FL to carry him to victory. With a strong message and vision on foriegn policy/national security he should be able to accomplish this. The only question is whether Giuliani has a claim to that same constituent with his 9-11 fame?
In the end I think the race for FL is between Romney and McCain. Giuliaini poor showings in the early states has hurt him significantly and now he has to fight for his life. Unfortunately for him, the voters he need are the voters most likely to vote for McCain. Romney on the other hand must unite conservatives and hope that Thompson as was noted doesn’t endorse anyone if he does drop out.
January 20th, 2008 at 6:05 pm
It seemed clear to me that Fred and Mitt split the conservative vote in South Carolina (I mean conservative in the traditional sense, not the new-fangled Huckabee/McCain stuff), so Fred dropping out would help Mitt, I’m thinking. He woulda beat Huckabee in SC were it that simple and across the board.
January 20th, 2008 at 9:27 pm
I don’t agree with Stephen about McCain’s foreign policy credentials. The propensity to pick and win fights is not the kind of statesmanship that we need right now. McCain is simply wrong for the challenges we face at home and abroad.