Comments on: Delegate Counts and Vote Totals - 1/19/08

By: craig

craig — Fri, 08 Feb 2008 01:04:23 +0000

Isn’t it obvious to all that we need to use our strength in numbers ( delegates, enthusiasm, finance ) to ensure Mitt is Mccain’s VP? Before everybody goes ballistic, consider

1. If the ticket wins, Mitt is a cinch to be the nominee in 2012 with a likely withdrawel of President McCain for age, etc.
2. If the ticket loses, Mitt is a cinch for the nomination in 2012
3. If Gerry Ford had Reagan as VP in 1976 , he would have been Reelected and Reagan would have been elected in his own right anyway in 1980

I’m sure this ticket would initially be unappealing to Mitt and John McCain. So was Kennedy and Johnson who truly disliked one another in 1960. But Mitt is the only guy who gives McCain a chance.
Guiliani has a lot of pro-choice baggage in the N.E and his moderate appeal overlaps McCains. Thompson is really uninterested in the work. Huckabee brings little to the ticket in the South that McCain doesn’t already have. The outliers like Crist, et al, are one state phenomenums who bring too much local baggage. Romney brings enthusiasm, charisma, money raising and debate skills to the table. McCain covers the defense, national security side and Romney, the economy. Who’s going to debate the economy with Mitt? Obama or Hillary ? Let’s start to bring leverage for this deal because it’s the only way McCain will get conservatives like me to the GOP this fall

By: SGS

SGS — Thu, 24 Jan 2008 00:05:42 +0000

Wallace, this is why it is very important that Mitt has a southern person on his ticket, someone like Jim DeMint, Jim Webb or even Fred Thompson. Do you have any good southern name you could recommend?

By: SGS

SGS — Thu, 24 Jan 2008 00:03:42 +0000

John D’Aiuto, LA did have caucus last night, but only on which delegates should go. They do not declare their support until later, after the state has its primary on Feb 9th. As Jeff Fuller said, LA has a very weird primary process.

By: SGS

SGS — Thu, 24 Jan 2008 00:02:06 +0000

Nate and Vic, also, with the half-delegate penalty, the whole allocation thing for most early states are screwed up. We do not know exactly how they will distribute their delegates until they have their own state conventions. So, yes, most of the number we saw is just that, estimated number. A good example in case, Nevada caucus actually is 3 steps process. The precinct caucus decided who their delegates will be, and how they should vote. Then, they do it again at the county level, and finally state. Yes, none of numbers are right, but CNN has the best approximate number.

By: John D'Aiuto

John D'Aiuto — Wed, 23 Jan 2008 13:07:43 +0000

When will the results of Louisiana be on this sight and/or public?

By: Wallace S Black

Wallace S Black — Tue, 22 Jan 2008 21:54:07 +0000

Romney has not won in the South which is the base for the republican party and if he can’t win in the south he won’t win the republican nomination let alone the general election. McCain is the most electable republican and can win in the South. Romney expectedly won the Mormon vote (95% of 25% of total vote) in Nevada and won overwhelming. We will have to wait and see how well he does in other states without such a large Mormon vote. However, money can buy an election. Whether it will or not, we will have to wait and see.

By: Nate Gunderson

Nate Gunderson — Tue, 22 Jan 2008 20:25:34 +0000

Vic, I have found that there are basically two different tallies keeping track of the delegate race, CNN and RCP. At first there all I could find was CNN and they had the most detailed info, and most of it I was able to verify myself. I looked into just yesterday because I had other people telling me the same thing. Unfortunately it is difficult to tell which one has the correct tally, and I don’t think we’ll know for sure until the actual convention. One other problem is that as candidates drop out they can choose to release their delegates, and who do those go to? But as I explained though, CNN gives the most data to back up their results, and that’s why i initially went with theirs.

By: Vic Lundquist

Vic Lundquist — Tue, 22 Jan 2008 19:24:46 +0000

Nate, are your numbers still accurate? I heard one report on a national radio show today that GMR has 52 total delegates? Why the disparity?

By: SGS

SGS — Mon, 21 Jan 2008 02:16:12 +0000

Nate, I want you to know that Florida will be a Winner-Take-All state with their remaining half of national delegates, assuming the “delegation is sanctioned”. Here is what TheGreenPaper.com has to say:

All 57 delegates are to be allocated to the presidential contender receiving the greatest number of votes in the primary statewide.

If the penalty is not approved, then 75 delegates are divided among the districts. The winner of a district will take all of the delegates for that district. The remaining 36 is for whoever wins the statewide polls.

By: SGS

SGS — Mon, 21 Jan 2008 02:11:54 +0000

Jeremy, Nevada will not allocate its national delegates until it has its state convention sometimes in April. What happened yesterday was the first step, the caucus at precinct level. There are two more steps - the county convention and then the state convention. It is up to the state delegates (not 34 national delegates, but rather, who are appointed to attend the conventions) from each precinct, then county and finally the state convention on how the national delegates are allocated. We won’t know for sure until April. The number we see from CNN and such are just estimate.

By: SED

SED — Mon, 21 Jan 2008 01:45:59 +0000

Isn’t there a primary in Louisiana on Tuesday. Does Mitt have a presence there?

By: Jeremy

Jeremy — Sun, 20 Jan 2008 10:06:26 +0000

I’m a little confused because I heard Fox News say over and over that Romney picked up 34 delegates in NV? But this shows him only picking up 18. Please explain

By: JoyP

JoyP — Sun, 20 Jan 2008 07:07:50 +0000

Thanks, Nate, good work. Amazingly, in spite of all the great stats, the MSM is ignoring the numbers.

I’ve been waiting for it and here it is. I just read an MSM article that called the Nevada win “a barely contested contest”. Those are the exact words that have been used to describe Mitt’s Wyoming win in every single article I have read over the last couple of weeks, and I mean dozens of them by every news organization. They are well organized in their determination to destroy Mitt. Now they have pasted the label on Nevada and the minimizing goes on. Grass roots,…US…that’s what it will take to get past the press.

By: Nevadagirl

Nevadagirl — Sun, 20 Jan 2008 05:47:49 +0000

If we switched Mitt and McCranky’s delegate numbers, the media would have no problem declaring McCain the front runner. However, since it’s Romney that’s ahead they will do everything they can to avoid calling him the front-runner, and giving him the status in this race that he has rightly earned. Rush declared Romney the front-runner last Thursday on his show. I think it is obvious that most conservatives accept that Mitt is the current front-runner. I guess the question now is, are there enough conservatives left in Florida and Feb 5th states to put the delegate count up so high for Mitt, that they have no choice but to call him the front-runner?

By: J.D.

J.D. — Sun, 20 Jan 2008 05:04:32 +0000

I was waiting for McCain-obsessed FoxNews to mention that in Nevada, Romney won more votes than ALL OF THE OTHER CAMPAIGNS COMBINED.

That’s huge, but there’s just silence. Nowhere else has this occurred for any candidate.

But Fox apparently didn’t have time to mention this; too busy talking about McCain.

PLEASE get all Romney spokespersons to use the term “front runner” at least twice during all future interviews.