Get Your Brass Knuckles, We’re Headed for a Convention Floor Fight
Gov. Romney seems to be making strong headway in Michigan. It’s probably thanks to the shift of focus in the campaign to economic matters where Gov. Romney is most strongly in his element (and Sen. McCain rather weak). Good news, though Iowans and New Hampshirites have both broken my heart in the last ten days and I’m gun shy about getting excited.
Looking forward though, what would a Michigan win mean for Gov. Romney? I daresay it would mean a lot and catapault him back into the top-tier in the national polls. But I find it unlikely that it would turn him into a juggernaut. Iowa and New Hampshire were Gov. Romney’s shot at running away with the nomination. Now the best he can hope for is to win a battle of attrition. Indeed, as I’m looking at the calender, Sen. McCain is really the only candidate with a real shot at running away with this (with a win in Michigan and S. Carolina).
It’s been suggested that Florida might decide things, but, really, all I think it will decide is whether Giuliani’s ridiculous Florida + 2/5 strategy will survive first contact. No matter what happens, it’s probable that we’ll have five separate winners dividing up the states on 2/5 (if, for no other reason, everyone’s home state is voting that day).
After that, the citizens in 31 states will have voted and well over 1,000 delegates decided. Far from being a deciding date, the huge number of states voting on 2/5 may well represent a point-of-no-return if the day ends with the field as muddled as it is today. Sure there are big states left to vote post-2/5 (Ohio, Texas, and Pennsylvania), but it’s unlikely they’ll prove any more decisive than the rest.
Which means, if Gov. Romney takes Michigan, we’re headed to a brokered convention in Minneapolis. Fun.
~~~Thomas
January 13th, 2008 at 4:38 am
Thomas, you may very well be right. But don’t dismiss the money factor. Basically, the other four contenders are effectively out of money past Florida. They are literally out of money, which means they really cannot place any meaningful or sustained advertising in any of the major states voting on Feb. 5th.
However, Governor Romney can and probably will. Combining a well-placed advertising campaign with superior organizational structure in ever big state, he will have a significant advantage.
However, Governor Romney needs some big wins and more delegates (for bragging rights) before 2/5. I believe that Governor Romney, combining his hard work with that of all us supporters and a little luck, we will see it break his way in a big way to avoid the rare brokered convention.
But if it came to that and he was nominated that way, that would be GREAT too!
January 13th, 2008 at 8:00 am
Thomas, don’t be so discouraged! Chin up. Chest out. Forward, march. No one said it was going to be easy. Gun shy about getting excited?! You’ve got to be kidding me. Look at the miracles that are happening. They are proof positive that the Almighty wants the best for us and Gov. Romney is the best. Discouragement is a tool of the MSM and is our worst enemy. If you need a boost in spirits, listen to Hugh Hewitt, Mark Levin, Laura Ingraham, Rush Limbaugh, Glenn Beck, etc., etc. They are all with us. And Gov. Romney’s base of supporters know he was raised up to help deal with the problems of our generation. Did you ever see anyone so well prepared? We just need to keep working hard to make it happen. Romney is single-handedly making a super-human effort. We can do no less. As the primaries move west, we go deeper into GOP country where people value liberty, hard work and conservative principles. It’s going to happen. Those who be with us are greater than those who be against us. Let’s roll.
January 13th, 2008 at 9:41 am
A old fashioned convention? Now that would be FUN! I’m old enough to remember those, GREAT theatre! For those who don’t remember, no one could ever win on the 1st or 2nd ballot. Many states nominated “favorite sons” usually their Governor or Senator. By the 3rd or later ballots states made “deals” and alliances with other states and candidates, mostly favorite son votes went to those candidates that brokered deals with them on issues or promises. Real interesting, much more that the way it is today when the party’s nominee is know before the convention starts.
At Rasmussen Markets Romney moved way up yesterday from almost 40 points behind McCain. The difference is less that 10 points now and still moving in Mitts favor. So far this market has been right every time for the GOP primaries. Of course they were WAY OFF for the Dems in the NH contest.
January 13th, 2008 at 10:04 am
Just checked http://www.markets.rasmussenreports.com again and now McCain leads Romney in Michigan by 1 point! 40 minuets ago it was 8.5 points and yesterday it was almost 40 points. McCain is already down 12 points today and mitt is up 10 points. This is fun to watch so the above link will enable those who want to watch this. Huckabee is included in the “field” market and is polling almost less than 10%.
January 13th, 2008 at 12:02 pm
Jan:
LET’S ROLL! I love it! That expression, in every way, is how I feel! That great expression of those men and women of Flight 93 who took courage and who took charge.
As has been said, nobody in this race is working as hard as Governor and Ann Romney. Nobody.
January 13th, 2008 at 12:18 pm
I disagree with Thomas a little in that I think that Romney winning in MI and NV will have impact on the FL primary, where Romney is very well organized. Keep in mind Thomas that Romney now has a credible message and combine that with his organization and resource edge, he can very well wrap up this race by ending McCain and Giuliani’s bid for the nomination. Here’s how: If Romney wins MI and NV and employs his resources in SC to bring McCain down to third place their (assuming Thompson does well), it will be hard for McCain to continue resource wise. If Thompson wins in SC, where does that leave Huckabee? Huckabee will then only have the IA win going into FL, where the contingent of evangelicals is smaller than in SC or IA. I for one believe Romney would do well to advertise in SC and ally win Thompson to ensure that neither Huckabee or McCain win in SC. Lastly, Giuliani is already hurting resource wise and will have to deploy more resources to protect his terrority in FL. But Giuliani has no standing in any way to attack Romney given his outright liberal positions in social policy. I can easily see Romney winning there if of course he wins MI and NV and if neither McCain or Huckabee wins in SC. So I think these scenarios are plausible, but they do depend on Romney winning in MI.
January 13th, 2008 at 5:16 pm
A win in Michigan would be very good for Mitt. But if he can’t transfer that to SC, I want Fred to win it, and then if Giuliani wins Florida, we really will have to go a convention.
January 13th, 2008 at 6:03 pm
Funny how events fold. With the assassination of Bhutto, it put foreign policy experience and the war on the forefront…by perception alone..it benefitted McCain. Now with news of a recession it definitely plays into Mitt’s hands….because you can make the connection from the economy…to healthcare….to illegal immigration…and then back to national security. There is connectivity to these issues, and McCain only can somewhat hold claim to one aspect. Mitt can claim the rest.