One of the Reasons this blog is #1
I was in the process of getting caught up on the site, after spending the week in Iowa, when I came across this excellent comment from one of our readers.
Linda on 02 Jan 2008 at 2:54 am edit this #6
Boy are you optimistic. I still see Romney getting the nomination, but through a more complicated route. Huck will squeeze past Romney in Iowa, and McCain will take New Hampshire, because both are so full of momentum right now, united against Romney, and getting a free pass from the MSM. Then Romney will take Michigan, his home state, because he will still be strong coming in 2nd in the first two states. Then it will come down to Huck vs. Romney in South Carolina. By this time, Huckabee has been stopped by the conservative press (Will, Limbaugh, Ingraham, Hannity, Coulter, Hewitt, etc.), who have all joined forces, for the sake of the party, to kill a Huckabee nomination. (They would have done it earlier, but they were all on Christmas break) Romney will then squeeze past Huck in South Carolina, due to Huck’s bad press. McCain will have since been out of contention, because he was only viable in NewHampshire anyway. That leaves only Giuliani and Romney to fight it out for Florida. I can’t predict that, but I think it will be a Romney/Giuliani race from then on, with Romney the victor, due to momentum, and the republican establishment on his side.
One of the things I have observed over the last year at this site is the reasoned analysis that goes on here, from both contributors and readers. We don’t have screaming contests with each other, there isn’t any of the sophomoric arguments that go on at other sites and, with the exception of the occasional “wing nut eruption”, our readers post comments that have real value in the ongoing process of selecting the next President. Thats why I posted Linda’s excellent analysis above. Kudos to Linda on a fine job!
~~John Cronin~~
January 5th, 2008 at 4:32 pm
hats off to the freaky clairavoyant. . .so far at least. I hope she’s right on the ultimate outcome.
January 5th, 2008 at 4:33 pm
and I mean freaky in a good way, i mean i am impressed by her accuracy thus far
January 5th, 2008 at 5:58 pm
Linda and John, not that I want to be negative here, but we do need to mention some things here. NH is an open primary, meaning anyone can vote in either party. McCain did well there in 2000 because he drew most of the left-leaning independents. They voted overwhelmly for McCain.
However, right now, there are two things going against McCain. First, many of them are against the war in Iraq, and second, many of them are against Clinton. Last summer, McCain were not leading in any of NH polls because those left-leaning independents were going for one of many Democratic candidates. However, toward the end of the year, it started to look like no one can stop the Clinton machine. They started to look for other options, and there is no candidate who is more leftish but also a fiscal conservative candidate than McCain. So, about for the past two months, McCain climbed up in the polls as those independents started to switch the party focus. However, it now looks like that the Clinton machine has been stopped. Many of them definitely will run back to Democratic side to vote for anyone other than Clinton. This is made even easier for many of these independents, because they are all against the Iraq war, whereas McCain has been in favor of it. You just need to watch the news on how NH folks are responding to Obama at each of his stops. They are so wild for him.
As for Michigan, the story there is completely different. Because Michigan broke the rule on how soon the primary may be held, the National Democratic Committee has taken away their delegates. They have no delegates. It means that the votes of the Democrats won’t count for anything there. And again, Michigan also is an open primary state, so anyone can vote on Republican side. I think McCain will be the one who will get most of the Democratic and left-leaning independents votes there, and that it will be enough to push him beyond Mitt’s number. I could not see how Mitt can overcome this. That is why I think he has to do well in NH, and I think he will win it. Even if Mitt did not win either, those two states are not win-all. Mitt will get his share of delegates (worst scenario, 30% of delegates in both states). Then, it will be Nevada (Mitt’s stronghold) and SC (virtually tied between Huckabee/Mitt, but definitely not for McCain).