Exit Polls: The Religion Factor
No doubt more exit polling will be forthcoming in the next few days, but the initial results (see CNN’s Recap Here) tell a compelling story about the makeup of Huckabee’s support. The general theme in the media right now is that Huckabee won with Evangelicals.
Huckabee Takes Iowa; Romney Comes in 2nd
On the Republican side, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee benefited from the huge importance of faith to caucus-goers. Evangelical Christians accounted for a whopping six in 10 voters — 46 percent of whom supported Huckabee, more than double former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney’s 19 percent.Nearly four in 10 Republican caucus participants said it matters “a great deal” that candidates share their religious beliefs, and Huckabee wins 56 percent in this group, with Romney and Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., far behind at 11 percent apiece (85 percent in this group are evangelicals).
By contrast, among those who said sharing religious belief is not important — about a third of caucus-goers — Romney won 39 percent, and Huckabee just 11 percent.
Huckabee also attracted those looking for a straight-talking candidate with values. He beat Romney by wide margins among voters who cared most about a candidate who “shares my values” (44-26 percent)
Romney beat Huckabee by even wider margins among those who cared most about the candidate who has the right experience (37-9 percent) or who has the best chance to win in November (51-8 percent). Unfortunately for him, those were not high priorities for caucus participants.
The undersampled Evangelical support that Huckabee enjoyed most likely led to the skewed poll results we’ve seen coming out of Iowa over the past few weeks. Many in the media were operating on the assumption that Evangelical voters would turn out this year in similar numbers to 2000. In fact, the difference was quite profound: 60% this year vs. 39% in 2000.
Mike Huckabee Opts Not to Talk About Mitt Romney’s Mormon Faith
Huckabee is surging in Iowa, where Christian evangelicals, by many estimates, make up anywhere from 30 percent to 50 percent of Republicans who will attend the caucuses, set for Jan. 3. Huckabee has consolidated the support of influential religious conservatives, primarily by reaching out to a network of pastors across the state. He spoke privately Monday night to several hundred pastors gathered in Des Moines for a conference, the only presidential candidate to do so.In 2000 — the last contested Republican primary — exit polls indicated self-described Christian conservatives made up 39 percent of Iowa’s GOP caucus vote.
Many have speculated (Charlie Rose’s Post-Caucus Round Table, George Stephanopoulos on Nightline, New York Times Political Blog, etc.) that anti-Mormon sentiment may have been one of the key factors motivating the turnout.
Christian Conservatives and the Caucuses
…Mr. Huckabee has done his part to motivate conservative Christian clergy on his behalf as well. In early December, he delivered an impassioned address to a gathering of a few hundred pastors at an event called the Iowa Renewal Conference in at a hotel in Des Moines. Although billed as nonpartisan events to encourage political participation, Mr. Huckabee was the only candidate to speak at the event and most of the other speakers were Huckabee supporters as well. (One was Tim LaHaye, one of the authors of the “Left Behind” series of novels.) And the week before Christmas, he delivered another address to the Iowa Christian Alliance, an influential evangelical clergy group, emphasizing his consistent opposition to abortion and same-sex marriage.… In the final days before the caucus, some evangelical supporters of Mr. Huckabee are making sure the state’s pastors and evangelicals do not forget these concerns. “Romney struggles to attract those who could not support a Mormon,” Rick Scarborough, the founder of the Christian conservative group Vision America, wrote in a mass e-mailing earlier this week.
… Randy Brinson, a friend of Mr. Huckabee’s who founded the nonpartisan evangelical voters registration organization, Redeem the Vote, sent out another mass e-mail directly criticizing Mr. Romney for “parsing words from his own faith experience as a Mormon and equating it to the Christian faith, which is a particularly difficult Christians to accept.”
January 4th, 2008 at 8:01 am
Mormon’s function best in trying times. Lets watch Mitt work and we will see yet again, him succeed in tough circumstances.
January 4th, 2008 at 8:09 am
Everyone figured the Clinton machine and Romney’s deep pockets would trump everything in Iowa. But Huck had Chuck and Obama had Oprah and those were the winning hands. (My grandsons kept asking, Who’s the guy with Chuck Norris?) McCain is a POW hero, Thompson is an actor. Mormon, hair and flip-flop shouldn’t be the things that come to mind when you say Romney. Sincere, trusted and family man deserve to top the list. As do Olympics, businessman, and governor. We heard Olympic skaters were speaking at TeamMitt polling places and their stories were very touching. That stuff has great appeal. Why weren’t they in a Gov. Romney ad? His best ad is the Bob Gay story. There are ways to make people sit up and take notice of what a genuinely fine person Gov. Romney is aside from his politics. Fireside chats might. The passion that came across in that Jan Mickelson off-camera interview was electric. Gov. Romney’s family is an untapped gold mine. The Romney family Christmas card photo on my fridge draws everyone’s interest. The family flag football game was fun to see. A testimonial by the woman getting her hair done when MLK and GR marched by would be great, or other Michigan citizens reminiscing about Gov. G. Romney and his family. Can Five Brothers sing back-up for Five For Fighting’s John Ondrasik for the troops somewhere? That would get people’s attention. I’m just brainstorming. Maybe TeamMitt should look at doing Super Bowl-style ads that people will remember. If a candidate is running on “change” he needs to be innovative in projecting himself. We love Mitt and we know America will too when they get to know the real him. We want Romney for President in 2008.
January 4th, 2008 at 8:29 am
I agree with Jan. I worked with Gov. Romney a little during the Olympics and know what he is about.
I think he needs to focus on letting people know who he is and what he is about. His life and work stands for the values that America stands for. I am proud of him and will be win, lose or draw.
Gov. Romney let the media bring down Huckabee and McCain. I believe you need to connect with the voters by letting them know who you are and what you are about. Don’t be Ronald Reagan or George Bush. Be Mitt Romney. Educate the people on what you are going to do for them and not what the other guys can’t.
In some Huckabee ads he talks about the times he has counseled unwed mothers and other people with problems and how he connects with regular people. He asserts that Gov. Romney doesn’t have this ability or experience. Those of us who understand the positions of leadership that Gov. Romney has held in the church know that this assertion by Huck is completely unfounded.
Hang in there Mitt and team. Rise above the fray and stand for your principles.
January 4th, 2008 at 9:16 am
Ditto to all of the above.
It is important to “connect” with the people AND preserve the statesmanship and image of a President - Huckabee has neither of those qualities. Although tradition plays a big role in this Iowa caucus, it seems obvious that religion was the overwhelming factor and hopefully that is not true in the rest of the country. Personally, I am disappointed and ashamed of the so called “christians” who came out in record numbers to demonstrate that fact. They totally misrepresent what religion is all about and they do not understand what this country is all about when they allow that single factor to determine who will lead this nation of many faiths.
Thank you Mitt Romney for subjecting yourself and your family to the hippocracies of those voters. We are so fortunate that you are willing to put yourself up for our country. We remain solidly behind you and will to the end.
January 4th, 2008 at 9:43 am
I really agree with Jan. There are so many stories that you could tell about Mitt Romney that will touch the hearts of people. I hope that Mitt Team should prepare an Ad featuring testimonials of people who knew Mitt personally and let them talk about their experience with him. Let the people know that he is a human being and cares a lot for them. Check this ad I created as an example: http://jumpcut.com/view/?id=76138EE05FAB11DCAF95000423CF382E
January 4th, 2008 at 10:21 am
I feel like the press is distorting reality. Dick Morris seems to be spinning in Hucks favor on the oreilly factor. They say Romney has run a negative campaign but Huck has played dirty. Ed Rollins wins and he acts bitter. A lot is being said about Romney spending his own money. I plan on donating soon. I know he will figure out what he needs to do to get himself to the top but he has Huck, McCain and Gulianni dying to get him out of the way. They say Romney’s negative and their on the high road. The press seems to let all their jabs at Romney pass. The conservative media elite seems to want McCain or Gulianni. Romney needs his supporters to voice their opinions and donate to his campaign. We will have to fight hard and let the world see that their is more behind his campaign than just his $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$.
January 4th, 2008 at 10:56 am
Given the exit poll numbers I’ve seen, Romney beat Huckabee roughly 2 to 1 among the non-evangelicals. The problem is, a significant percentage of evangelicals are impervious to any message that might be supportive of Romney, because of his religion.
The religious bigotry of evangelicals that is being revealed in this campaign, if it persists in other states, threatens to destroy the evangelicals political clout and unravel the Republican party base.
There are many highly capable evangelicals who would make great presidents–Mike Huckabee is not one of them. However, for many evangelicals, the fact that he is evangelical (and especially not Mormon) is enough.
January 4th, 2008 at 12:22 pm
Romney’s seminal moment thus far was his speech on religous liberty. The problem is that not many people saw it. I agree that Romney needs to let loose and stop using the voice over ads. Showing people who he is matters. Thus far he has appeared remote.
Part of this is how others have defined him. Jan nailed the perception factor. Hopefully it isn’t too late.
January 4th, 2008 at 1:55 pm
Huckabee made it clear with his anti-Mormon comment and his subsequent apology that there was a delicate balance to be achieved in his campaign strategy, one that worked wonderfully in Iowa. Make religion the biggest issue, just pretend you’re not.
Well, kudos, Huck. It worked. Too bad Iowa’s over and now there’s nothing left for you.
January 4th, 2008 at 2:13 pm
I think the vote for Huck had less to do with Mitt’s Mormonism, but more to do with Huck’s evangelical background. The evangelicals have chosen their man, and they will be out en-force in every state to vote for Huck. So he is the choice of evangelicals, who probably represent more than half the party. Unfortunately, they don’t really see the big picture. They will vote for Huck and then go down as a party because their pro-evangelical vote won’t be enough to beat the democrats. I think we’re getting closer and closer to an Obama victory, and I’ll take Obama any day over Huckabee, hands down. Obama is inspiring; Huck is divisive.
January 4th, 2008 at 6:56 pm
Well I agree that Obama is inspiring but I would feel a whole lot safer with Mitt. It sounds like the Huckabee could implode and fall with his very liberal record or maybe some miss steps a long the trail.
January 5th, 2008 at 3:25 am
I’m a Ron Paul supporter who somehow got to this discussion. Ron and Mitt have a lot in common with the exception of foreign policy and the role of government in controlling people’s individual freedoms. Like many of you, I’ll probably vote for Obama before Huck if it comes to that. Good luck in NH against McCain. If Paul does not make it to the finals, I will consider Mitt if he is willing to moderate his position on policing the world.
January 5th, 2008 at 2:42 pm
Voting for a candidate based not on their qualifications or their political experience, but based solely on their religious affiliation, is not only extremely ignorant but is just downright bigoted. If all of these so-called “born-again/evangelicals” turned out to cast a vote in Iowa for Huckabee just for the purpose of thwarting the campaign of the only Latter-day Saint candidate then I am appalled and disgusted by their motivations. This is no way to choose the leader of our country and it will eventually lead to the downfall of the Republican party if this trend continues. We are not a theocracy and anyone who still believes in democracy should take note of what apparently seems to be happening. If those who would vote for a candidate based on religious affiliation can be this motivated then, in my opinion, maybe it is time to fight fire with a little more fire. There are several million Latter-day Saints in this country, and they don’t all live in Utah. The LDS people in this country have paid taxes, served in the military and the government, fought in every major conflict in this country and have endured years of ridicule and scorn from other religions since 1830. They deserve respect and deserve to be represented by the best candidate regardless of what faith he or she may or may not be. I believe the efforts of these misguided “Christians” can be countered by a grassroots campaign designed to nullify and effectively water down their own votes. If they think they are going to be able to dictate to the rest of us who is going to lead this country, based on their own bigotry, then maybe they need a dose of their own medicine. If Huckabee wins the nomination, and it is obvious that he wins due to the evangelical vote alone, then I would support Mitt Romney to run an independent campaign just to send a direct message. He would never win, of course, but neither will Huckabee. Obama, Edwards or even Clinton would destroy Huckabee in November and everyone should just accept that. The Republican party will never win with Huckabee as the nominee. Splitting up the Republican vote by having Romney as an independent candidate would send them a very clear message. It is not the party for
“Christians only” and if they continue to believe this then they should accept a sound defeat by the Democrats.
January 5th, 2008 at 3:36 pm
Two things:
1) Why can’t the press and the world understand the difference between negative personal attacks and negative attacks on issues? The first has no place in politics and the second is the heart and soul of politics. If we can’t distinguish candidates based on their records and stances on issues, what are political campaigns for- just a fashion show like McCain’s daughter thinks? Politicians- you focus on telling us why you believe what you do and what you plan to do to help our country, and we the people will decide whether we think you are “honest” or not.
2) Why can’t the press and the world see bigotry towards Mormons the same way they see it towards Jews or other cultures/peoples? Is anti-Mormonism the only legitimate form of bigotry remaining in this country? If it is, the Huck/Chuck Bigot-Bubble may never burst and I may not vote this year. Let’s not tear down our nation with our own irrationality and bigotry. We need to focus on issues and character, not specific type of religion. If we don’t, I predict the result will be a Clinton White House that will secure our nation’s demise within a few decades.