Iowa Trendlines Now Favor Romney!
Polls are necessary evils in politics. They are used to try and gauge interest for a particular topic, and they are OFTEN wrong. Polls can be distorted to give a particular result, etc. What can not be denied, however, is a trendline. A trendline is basically the same as “momentum”. If you are seen having a rising trendline, things look good. A falling one, not so good.
Iowa is a very tough region to poll, hence why we’ve seen polls all over the place this last week or so. Back in 2000, at this point in the race, Howard Dean looked to be a sure fire winner. He came in 3rd. So, while ANYthing is possible in politics…..momentum is something that is KEY to have and I believe the data below will reinforce this.
What I did was take the last 6 major polls conducted after the Christmas break, where Iowan’s were making their final choices and settling in on who their choice for President will be. In these polls, like I said…the numbers were all over the map….but the MOMENTUM looks to be clearly in Gov. Romneys favor. Take a look :
These polls ( Quad City Times, Strategic Vision, Mason-Dixon, ARG, Zogby, MSNBC) show either Gov. Huckabee or Gov Romney in the lead. However, take a look at the graphic above. CLEARLY Gov. Romney is on the rise and Gov. Huckabee is on the fall…..
Like I have been saying for a month now, Gov Huckabee peaked too soon. Even some of his own people are saying they peaked “2 weeks early”. This has given opposition and the media time to research his true policies and positions and make sure it’s known out there just what Huckabeee stands for.
In my opinion, Romney will win Iowa by 4-5% on caucus night. Not only is Huckabee bleeding from constant hits on his record, Gov. Romney has far far superior organization in Iowa and that can make up a 3-4% difference in getting your voters out to caucus. People were dating Huckabee, but in the end will marry Romney.
What this says to me is….Gov Romney will be our nominee and all of the hard work will have paid off. He’ll stave off McCain in NH, win WY and MI, and have enough momentum to take SC and if he does that…..he will walk to the nomination.
Alot can happen in 5 days, but I am really really liking our chances…..
December 30th, 2007 at 12:17 pm
I agree with your assessment about Romney’s organization skill and prowess in the field. We are looking at post Christmas polls and they indeed show that Romney has closed the gap. I also agree that if Romney is within 5 points of Huckabee, his organizational edge can bridge that gap, since the polls cannot accurately gauge who will actually turn out to vote in the Caucus. One thing to note is that Fred Thompson, has not taken support from Huckabee as I assumed, but ironically McCain has taken support from Huckabee, due to doubts about his foriegn policy credentials. McCain more than anyone needs Huckabee to win in IA so to launch his 2000Redux strategy. He has cannibalized his own chances by appearing in IA and advertising his foriegn policy experience. I say this because Romney’s support has been steadily around 25% to 28% in all polls, while Huckabee has come down from the mid 30s to parity with Romney. In the meanwhile McCain has had the most pronounced rise among those who are vying for third (three tickets out of IA). This is a major, major mistake by McCain’s campaign, but is this surprising? Considering how inept his campaign has been from the beginning its only fitting that McCain would again fail by self inflicted wounds more than anything else.
December 30th, 2007 at 12:54 pm
I agree with the analysis, but could we all collectively knock on some wood around here? Let’s keep our hopes high but our expectations low…
December 31st, 2007 at 12:34 am
I’ve been knocking, alot.