Comments on: State of the Race: McCain Edition http://committedtoromney.com/2007/12/22/state-of-the-race-mccain-edition/ A Community of People Committed to Conservative Principles Since 2005. Fri, 18 May 2012 00:18:06 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.5.1 By: Mark VA http://committedtoromney.com/2007/12/22/state-of-the-race-mccain-edition/#comment-75760 Mark VA Thu, 27 Dec 2007 12:55:27 +0000 http://blog.electromneyin2008.com/2007/12/22/state-of-the-race-mccain-edition/#comment-75760 Thomas – great post. Steven – You forgot to detail the most likely scenario. Romney wins Iowa by a slim margin and the MSM focuses only on Huckabee’s “moral victory over big money” just like August. Us Mittheads throw stuff at our TV screens again. Romney wins New Hampshire soundly, but the MSM focuses on McCain’s “amazingly strong finish and resurgence”. Us Mittheads throw more stuff at our TV screens. The MSM has one agenda, deny Romney his rightful momentum and derail his campaign. It is painfully clear. Thomas – great post.

Steven – You forgot to detail the most likely scenario. Romney wins Iowa by a slim margin and the MSM focuses only on Huckabee’s “moral victory over big money” just like August. Us Mittheads throw stuff at our TV screens again. Romney wins New Hampshire soundly, but the MSM focuses on McCain’s “amazingly strong finish and resurgence”. Us Mittheads throw more stuff at our TV screens. The MSM has one agenda, deny Romney his rightful momentum and derail his campaign. It is painfully clear.

]]> By: SGS http://committedtoromney.com/2007/12/22/state-of-the-race-mccain-edition/#comment-74715 SGS Sat, 22 Dec 2007 19:34:28 +0000 http://blog.electromneyin2008.com/2007/12/22/state-of-the-race-mccain-edition/#comment-74715 Thomas, do not forget that he, along with Huckabee, believes the Global Warming alarmists. They will do anything at expense of the free market to preserve our Earth, when more and more evidences are coming to light that the warming and cooling actually is very normal part of Earth's cycles going back many hundred of millions of years. Thomas, do not forget that he, along with Huckabee, believes the Global Warming alarmists. They will do anything at expense of the free market to preserve our Earth, when more and more evidences are coming to light that the warming and cooling actually is very normal part of Earth’s cycles going back many hundred of millions of years.

]]> By: Steven http://committedtoromney.com/2007/12/22/state-of-the-race-mccain-edition/#comment-74703 Steven Sat, 22 Dec 2007 18:20:14 +0000 http://blog.electromneyin2008.com/2007/12/22/state-of-the-race-mccain-edition/#comment-74703 Good analysis, but McCain's surge is not as extensive as the MSM would have everyone believe. His dependence on independent votes in NH will be undercut by Ron Paul. I guess this reality informed Giuliani to pull out of NH, since it would give McCain some support there to undercut Romney. Giuliani is running a thoroughly underhanded campaign of posturing and allowing others like McCain and Huckabee to do the dirty work in the early primaries to open things up for him in the BigStates. In any event, the polls after Christmas will be telling, but by the time they come out, the votes will be cast. So for the next week or so, we will be completely in the dark as to who really is surging and what's the expected positioning of the candidates as far as how they will finish. This is one crazy campaign and it all hinges on Iowa. Here are the scenarios in order of likelihood in IA: IF Romney wins there with a 2nd place finish by Huckabee (Romney's dream scenario), he stands a chance of running the table. If Romney wins there with a second place finish by Thompson, then look for a big showdown in SC between Romney and Thompson. If Huckabee wins with Romney in 2nd (Huckabee's dream scenario), look for things to get really, really interesting, with McCain and Romney in NH, Romney, McCain and Huckabee in MI and Romney, McCain and Huckabee in SC. If Huckabee wins and Thompson finishes 2nd (Rudy's dream scenario), look for a McCain victory in NH and MI, Romney out of the race and a big showdown in SC between Thompson and Huckabee and McCain, in which case Giuliani can have a shot at winning SC due to the divisions in the conservative coalition. IF Thompson wins IA with a 2nd place finish by Romney (Thompson's dream scenario), look for a tough fight between Romney and McCain in NH and MI and a Thompson win in SC. With a win in SC, Thompson will have strong momentum going into FL to go up against Giuliani. IF Thompson wins IA with a 2nd place finish by Huckabee, its over for Romney, McCain wins NH and maybe MI, but Thompson wins SC and goes up against Giuliani in FL, where Thompson is likely to win. In all, Iowa sets the table for the rest of the race and it is very important to pay attention to who finishes 2nd and the margin of victory to gauge who will viably be able to content in the follow on primaries. Money is huge and I agree the McCain would be making a big gamble taking funds if he intends on being the nominee. However with that said, McCain stands a reasonable shot in most of the scenarios I detailed where Romney finishes 2nd and he will need the money in that event to counter Romney's great resources to win in both NH and MI as he did in 2000. Therefore for the Romney's campaign, it's important to simply do what it must to win IA to pave the way to the nomination, given its current leads in both NH and MI. Good analysis, but McCain’s surge is not as extensive as the MSM would have everyone believe. His dependence on independent votes in NH will be undercut by Ron Paul. I guess this reality informed Giuliani to pull out of NH, since it would give McCain some support there to undercut Romney. Giuliani is running a thoroughly underhanded campaign of posturing and allowing others like McCain and Huckabee to do the dirty work in the early primaries to open things up for him in the BigStates. In any event, the polls after Christmas will be telling, but by the time they come out, the votes will be cast. So for the next week or so, we will be completely in the dark as to who really is surging and what’s the expected positioning of the candidates as far as how they will finish. This is one crazy campaign and it all hinges on Iowa. Here are the scenarios in order of likelihood in IA:

IF Romney wins there with a 2nd place finish by Huckabee (Romney’s dream scenario), he stands a chance of running the table.

If Romney wins there with a second place finish by Thompson, then look for a big showdown in SC between Romney and Thompson.

If Huckabee wins with Romney in 2nd (Huckabee’s dream scenario), look for things to get really, really interesting, with McCain and Romney in NH, Romney, McCain and Huckabee in MI and Romney, McCain and Huckabee in SC.

If Huckabee wins and Thompson finishes 2nd (Rudy’s dream scenario), look for a McCain victory in NH and MI, Romney out of the race and a big showdown in SC between Thompson and Huckabee and McCain, in which case Giuliani can have a shot at winning SC due to the divisions in the conservative coalition.

IF Thompson wins IA with a 2nd place finish by Romney (Thompson’s dream scenario), look for a tough fight between Romney and McCain in NH and MI and a Thompson win in SC. With a win in SC, Thompson will have strong momentum going into FL to go up against Giuliani.

IF Thompson wins IA with a 2nd place finish by Huckabee, its over for Romney, McCain wins NH and maybe MI, but Thompson wins SC and goes up against Giuliani in FL, where Thompson is likely to win.

In all, Iowa sets the table for the rest of the race and it is very important to pay attention to who finishes 2nd and the margin of victory to gauge who will viably be able to content in the follow on primaries. Money is huge and I agree the McCain would be making a big gamble taking funds if he intends on being the nominee. However with that said, McCain stands a reasonable shot in most of the scenarios I detailed where Romney finishes 2nd and he will need the money in that event to counter Romney’s great resources to win in both NH and MI as he did in 2000. Therefore for the Romney’s campaign, it’s important to simply do what it must to win IA to pave the way to the nomination, given its current leads in both NH and MI.

]]> By: Jeff Fuller http://committedtoromney.com/2007/12/22/state-of-the-race-mccain-edition/#comment-74667 Jeff Fuller Sat, 22 Dec 2007 13:07:29 +0000 http://blog.electromneyin2008.com/2007/12/22/state-of-the-race-mccain-edition/#comment-74667 Wow Thomas . . . thems fighin' words! Love how you're not shy about stating things how they are! Wow Thomas . . . thems fighin’ words! Love how you’re not shy about stating things how they are!

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