State of the Race: McCain Edition
Over the last ten days or so we’ve been hearing about a McCain surge. At first there was absolutely no evidence of such a phenomenon. He had a couple endorsements, but his poll numbers nationally and in New Hampshire were both either flat or on a minor (1-2 point) uptick. It was a news story without a shred of evidence to back it up, but it was repeated dozens of times over. Eventually, of course, it’s started to somewhat come true. Sen. McCain is back, if not as a frontrunner, than at least as a factor. The mainstream media strikes again and creates a self-fulfilling prophesy and breathes life into their favorite GOP candidate, to the detriment of our country and party.
At this point I should explain why I dislike Sen. McCain so much (second only to Gov. “toss the gays in quarrentine” Huckabee). Put simply he is a world-class jerk to conservatives. He doesn’t like us. The vitriol that he reserves for Gov. Romney in debates, he would never unleash against his “friends” the Democrats. Democrats he works hard to get along with. Helping them to pass bad legislation that strangles our freedoms (CFR) while working with Democrats to block President Bush’s judges on the Gang of 14 deal. He tried to ram the immigration bill down our throats and joined the chorus of race baiters who declared that anyone who disagreed with him was a racist, once again hurting his country and party. He now says that he heard us on the border. He didn’t. His position hasn’t changed, only its timing. He’s still in favor of amnesty, he just wants to wait a few years to grant it.
Sen. McCain’s service record is distinguished. But he’s become a cross between Sen. Kerry and Cindy Sheehan over the course of this election. Every chance he gets, he reminds us of his service in Vietnam and his days of torture. I’m reminded of President Bush (41) and his service. Did you know that there is footage of him being dragged out of the ocean after being shot down? I didn’t until I happened to see it on CNN about a year ago. President Bush didn’t rely on that footage to get himself into the White House. He focused on his years of service in public office exclusively. Had it been Sen. McCain or Sen. Kerry it would have been the centerpiece of their campaigns. Not only is that an only mildly relative point in picking a president, it’s also rather pathetic. Like Sen. Kerry, the country would be pretty sick of hearing about how much of a war hero he is by the time November comes around.
The Cindy Sheehan comparrison comes from his belief that simply because he was tortured, he is the only person with a rational opinion on the subject. Any person who would DARE to disagree with him on any aspect of the issue must bow before his absolute athority. This is nonesense and an insult to any thinking person. Just like Cindy Sheehan, we must look beyond appeals to emotion and discuss the situation as adults. Sen. McCain wants to shut down debate immediately because he thinks he’s right and shut up if you disagree. In other words, a jerk.
Sen. McCain has been called a great man by many, including some of his enemies. I disagree. Maybe he once was, but the Sen. McCain of today is just a bitter old man who thinks that it’s his turn to be president because Karl Rove was mean to him 8 years ago.
Don’t be fooled by any claims of his that he’s a conservative, he’s not. If a miracle happens and Sen. McCain gains the nomination, he’ll turn his back on us without a second thought, nominate Sen. Lieberman as his vice-president and run a “unity” campaign based mostly on foreign policy. Once in office, he’ll owe us nothing and be more than happy to sell us out on the things that matter most to us (judges, immigration, taxes) so that his Democrat friends in the Senate will keep praising him and the MSM will fawn all over him until they turn on him again in 2012.
~~~Thomas
December 22nd, 2007 at 9:07 am
Wow Thomas . . . thems fighin’ words! Love how you’re not shy about stating things how they are!
December 22nd, 2007 at 2:20 pm
Good analysis, but McCain’s surge is not as extensive as the MSM would have everyone believe. His dependence on independent votes in NH will be undercut by Ron Paul. I guess this reality informed Giuliani to pull out of NH, since it would give McCain some support there to undercut Romney. Giuliani is running a thoroughly underhanded campaign of posturing and allowing others like McCain and Huckabee to do the dirty work in the early primaries to open things up for him in the BigStates. In any event, the polls after Christmas will be telling, but by the time they come out, the votes will be cast. So for the next week or so, we will be completely in the dark as to who really is surging and what’s the expected positioning of the candidates as far as how they will finish. This is one crazy campaign and it all hinges on Iowa. Here are the scenarios in order of likelihood in IA:
IF Romney wins there with a 2nd place finish by Huckabee (Romney’s dream scenario), he stands a chance of running the table.
If Romney wins there with a second place finish by Thompson, then look for a big showdown in SC between Romney and Thompson.
If Huckabee wins with Romney in 2nd (Huckabee’s dream scenario), look for things to get really, really interesting, with McCain and Romney in NH, Romney, McCain and Huckabee in MI and Romney, McCain and Huckabee in SC.
If Huckabee wins and Thompson finishes 2nd (Rudy’s dream scenario), look for a McCain victory in NH and MI, Romney out of the race and a big showdown in SC between Thompson and Huckabee and McCain, in which case Giuliani can have a shot at winning SC due to the divisions in the conservative coalition.
IF Thompson wins IA with a 2nd place finish by Romney (Thompson’s dream scenario), look for a tough fight between Romney and McCain in NH and MI and a Thompson win in SC. With a win in SC, Thompson will have strong momentum going into FL to go up against Giuliani.
IF Thompson wins IA with a 2nd place finish by Huckabee, its over for Romney, McCain wins NH and maybe MI, but Thompson wins SC and goes up against Giuliani in FL, where Thompson is likely to win.
In all, Iowa sets the table for the rest of the race and it is very important to pay attention to who finishes 2nd and the margin of victory to gauge who will viably be able to content in the follow on primaries. Money is huge and I agree the McCain would be making a big gamble taking funds if he intends on being the nominee. However with that said, McCain stands a reasonable shot in most of the scenarios I detailed where Romney finishes 2nd and he will need the money in that event to counter Romney’s great resources to win in both NH and MI as he did in 2000. Therefore for the Romney’s campaign, it’s important to simply do what it must to win IA to pave the way to the nomination, given its current leads in both NH and MI.
December 22nd, 2007 at 3:34 pm
Thomas, do not forget that he, along with Huckabee, believes the Global Warming alarmists. They will do anything at expense of the free market to preserve our Earth, when more and more evidences are coming to light that the warming and cooling actually is very normal part of Earth’s cycles going back many hundred of millions of years.
December 27th, 2007 at 8:55 am
Thomas – great post.
Steven – You forgot to detail the most likely scenario. Romney wins Iowa by a slim margin and the MSM focuses only on Huckabee’s “moral victory over big money” just like August. Us Mittheads throw stuff at our TV screens again. Romney wins New Hampshire soundly, but the MSM focuses on McCain’s “amazingly strong finish and resurgence”. Us Mittheads throw more stuff at our TV screens. The MSM has one agenda, deny Romney his rightful momentum and derail his campaign. It is painfully clear.