Iowa Trendlines
Alot of talk lately about Iowa and it’s importance to the GOP nominee. Of course, it is fairly obvious you need to have a top 3 finish in Iowa to move on to New Hampshire. Romney has been fairly consistent over the last 2 months, Huckabee rising, and Giuliani holding steady at around 15%. Take a look at the following graph :
I have taken the last 17 Iowa polls from Real Clear Politics. You will see that Romney (blue) has remained very consistent in his trend line…holding in the 25-29% range since the beginning of October. Huckabee’s trend line is obviously more substantial, rocketing up the charts due to consistent and favorable media coverage to be in a neck and neck tie with Mitt. Giuliani, the national front runner, is lagging in a distant 3rd place with a steady attrition rate into the low 12% range.
So, here is my analysis. Romney, Huckabee, and Giuliani will be the 3 tickets out of Iowa. I still believe Romney will win Iowa, given his steady presence and organization over the last year. Huckabee, I feel, peaked too soon. The media is trying desperately to pump up this guy for 2 reasons. #1, they would like their chances in a Huckabee / Clinton match-up. And #2, if not that they are salivating for a Giuliani / Clinton matchup.
Romney is throwing a monkey wrench into those plans, so as the media promoted Huckabee you can see he took off.
However, as I said earlier…Huckabee peaked too soon. We are still 30 days away from the Iowa caucus. The Huckabee record is starting to make the rounds in Iowa, and as it does it will show him to NOT be the conservative the media is playing him out to be. He has raised taxes in Arkansas more in 10 years than Bill Clinton did in 12!!!
So, all in all…I believe Romney will still take Iowa by about 5% giving him a nice boost into New Hampshire where he is already leading by double digits.
So far, so good folks.
President Willard Mitt Romney is looking better and better by the day…
December 1st, 2007 at 1:07 pm
Hey Chris, this is awesome work! I love this kind of thing and I know from doing similar work for my employer, this takes a lot of time to create. AWESOME!
One great thing (silver lining of sorts) is that the expectations for a huge Romney win have completely evaporated. Some are even talking of a Huck win. With that, there is a HUGE opportunity for Romney grassroots workers to have a big win in Iowa. We definitely should not ever take anything for granted. I believe Huckabee is determined to win and we simply cannot allow that to happen in Iowa.
Great post!
December 1st, 2007 at 1:37 pm
This is true. Even if Huckabee does take Iowa, it would not be as such a shock because some polls show him leading there now. If every poll had Romney winning, and THEN Huckabee won Iowa…the shock factor alone would derail Romney.
So in this case, lowered expectations arent a bad thing for Romney. I still think he’ll win Iowa, and then run the table until the all important Florida primary and from there it will be very very interesting.
December 1st, 2007 at 3:26 pm
Iowa is a caucus state. Just in case you do not know what caucus is about, it is NOT where the voters come in to punch some ballot cards. You actually come in to have a “discussion” (often ended up as hot debates) with others in a packed room. It can takes a couple of hours at minimal (hence a much low number of attendees comparing with the primary states) before you have a enough vote to send delegates to next round — and yes, there are a few of them, going from precinct to county to state. You do not need to have the majority to obtain the delegates. For instance, if you have 3 delegates allocated to your precinct, you only need to get 1/3 of votes to get a delegate for your own candidates.
Yes, you aim to change the minds of others at those convention. There are posts from other sites claiming that the state polls rarely match what actually happened after the state caucus — because the people there work to change your mind. The more deep supporters you have, the more knowledgable supporters you have at those conventions at all levels, the more likely you will end up with most of the state delegates.
I think this is where Mitt has it going for him — he has the largest staff there, with strongest grassroot organization, and with all of the materials from his research and data-mining teams. For instance, some of the Huckabee supporters may come into the caucus with one thing on their mind — get the strongest pro-lifer elected — and if you have the data to back up on why Mitt is indeed a true pro-lifer that he is now, then you are likely to draw a few of those supporters. It is the same with Rudy, Fred and McCain. Of course, there will be some stubborn supporters, but generally, the movement is dynamic at those conventions.
And besides, the big question here really is not how much of support Huckabee has, but how well is he preparing his staff for caucus? He may find himself a frontrunner too sudden that they all stump around trying to organize everything — especially the counterarguements related to his financial and immigration stances. So far, the presses from his campaign have been lacking. They have only a month to clean up their act. And besides, caucus is a true way to prevent the bigotry — try to tell other you refuse to support Mitt because of his Mormonism!
So, yes, I think Mitt will do better than what the polls are showing right now. I think Chris is correct. Mitt will finish first or a very close second in Iowa.
December 1st, 2007 at 3:29 pm
And most of the delegates picked to attend the next stage intended to be those who are the community leaders. I believe Mitt has the most endorements in the state from many of the local and party leaders, so that will have a big impact on, at least, the last stage of caucus.
December 1st, 2007 at 3:56 pm
I think Mitt will still get the #1 slot in Iowa because he has broad based support that is organized and will actually show up to the caucus. As far as the #3 spot though, I think Fred Thompson will get that spot. Sure Giuliani is doing a bit better than him in the polls, but I suspect he is doing better in the metro areas while Fred is doing better in the more rural areas. Due to the nature of the caucus, it’s easier for rural support to turn into actual delegates, so unless Fred tanks, I expect him to steal third from Rudy.
December 2nd, 2007 at 10:17 pm
As you know, this is a little more complex than simple charts. Where the “lines” go in the future will depend on: what Mitt does, what the other candidates do, what the media does, how events from around the world affect the priorities place on any candidate. Game theory requires that you have some sense of the the potential path of each of those and have developed some appropriate response to each of those. Each campaign’s success will depend on its reactions to those events and a whole lot of luck in the things they can’t control. Iowa is a small/important part of the whole.
The Romney campaign’s greatest strength is its identification of appropriate favorable paths and its ability to execute on those strategies. It has the organizational strength and the financial flexibility to act strongly in ots own interest.
Whatever happens in the next 30 days to improve its favorability ratio, much will depend on getting their people to caucuses. For all the impact of polls, the win in Iowa comes down to very few real people. And here again, this is a Romney campaign strength.
What a great time to watch real politics happen.