Huge Polling News from South Carolina
Every once in a while you come accross some information and you find yourself doing a double-take and wondering if what you just read is true. That’s what happened to me just a few minutes ago when I read the updated polling numbers for South Carolina. A bump for Romney was to be expected, as he recently began purchasing advertising in South Carolina, but nothing prepared me for the numbers I saw today.
With just a few weeks of modest TV advertising, Romney has been able to elevate his numbers in the Palmetto State from 9% to 26% over last month’s numbers–and this is the first month of what many call the “regular season” of political campaigning. In other words, this is when it really counts.
Romney 26% (+17!!!!!)
Giuliani 23% (-3)
McCain 15% (+3)
Thompson 10% (-11)
Gingrich 7% (+1)
Paul 2% (+0)
Huckabee 1% (-8)
To top it off, it was also the first official month of the Fred Thompson campaign. Thompson is heavily favored in the South which makes his drop from 21% down to 10% that much more intriguing.
We all know that campaigns are a roller-coaster ride and I don’t expect Romney to win running away, but I do expect two major dynamics to come from this polling news. First, the attack dogs will come out from both the Republican rivals and from the Democratic National Committee. Expect to see Brownback in South Carolina making religious statements designed to hurt Romney. Secondly, a bump like this from moderate advertising in the state would translate into an explosion if Romney were to win both Iowa and New Hampshire. The positive press those wins would generate would have a huge impact on South Carolina and Romney may have the nomination locked up on Feb 5, if that is the case. Even if Romney drops back down into the teens in South Carolina over the next several months, this shows that a drastic change can occur in a short period of time here in the Palmetto State.
So for those of you who didn’t think that Romney stood a chance in South Carolina, perhaps now you would consider dropping a few dollars into the Romney campaign coffers to help continue getting the message out.
September 30th, 2007 at 11:41 pm
The bigger ARG poll result is Iowa. As everyone on this blog knows, if Romney loses Iowa its curtains. He’s up by one there, rendering this result in South Carolina moot. However I never put credence in any single poll, especially this early, but the trend. Let’s see the trend in South Carolina before popping bottles of champagne.
September 30th, 2007 at 11:47 pm
Great news, absolutely stunning! As I have said in posts and comments here in the recent past, I just could not imagine why a candidate like Mitt Romney was not getting any traction in South Carolina.
I could hardly believe my eyes when I saw RG and FT on top of the polls, when what I consider to be common sense would say that there is no way these two men could be out polling someone like MR in a conservative state like S.C.
Now I see that it has been the effectiveness of Team Romney’s very recent media penetration of that state.
Go, Mitt, Go!
October 1st, 2007 at 9:19 am
I have to agree with steven here. I like Romney as much as the next guy, but it’s true that if we want to put a lot of stock in this poll, we have to put equal stock into the Iowa poll by the same polling firm. I don’t have a lot of faith in the ARG polls to begin with, they seem to, almost without fail, contradict the trends of most other polls. So while this is good news (and lets hope that it continues and is backed up by other polls), especially given that everyone had written GMRs success in SC off, we need to take this success with a large grain of salt, IMO.
October 1st, 2007 at 9:34 am
ARG has been questionable in the past. What concerns me is the eroding support in Iowa and New Hampshire. Mitt has seen his lead all but evaporate in New Hampshire and his Iowa numbers are down significantly.
However, I think Mitt has found his message now. I think the speech he gave in Mackinac and the ads he’s been running are right on the mark. “Change begins with us” is a good theme.
For those of you in the know, why have his numbers been tanking in New Hampshire and Iowa? Are you confident he can bring them back?
October 1st, 2007 at 2:17 pm
I hope ARG is true though, getting a little close in Iowa and gaining huge ground in South Carolina is still great progress in my book!!! Just need to keep Iowa pinned down, did Iowa forgive him for dissing Ames so soon? Based only today look at the latest polls show Romney in the lead in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, South Carolina and Michigan, it makes me excited.
As Conservative voters start to dig deep and pay attention and realize that Rudy is pro-Abortion, pro-Gay Marriage, pro-Sanctuary Cities and was even a Mayor of one. He’s going to loose, and Mitt is bound to win.
October 1st, 2007 at 2:18 pm
Ekk, I meant, “…did Iowa forgive [Rudy] for dissing Ames so soon?”