Pre-Ames Warm-Up
Well the big day of the Ames Straw Poll has finally arrived. This morning is the last chance to get all the pre-game stories out before the big news of the results are released at appox. 7 PM (Central). Below you will find all the recent news I could find as it relates to Romney.
1.
Romney, Brownback to both bring more than 100 buses to Ames -
Campaign aides for Mitt Romney and Sam Brownback have informed the Iowa GOP that they’ll each be bringing over 100 buses to the Ames Straw Poll Saturday. An Iowa Republican said that Romney was bringing about 125 onto the campus of Iowa State University and Brownback just over 100. Tommy Thompson is bringing the third most, about 75. All told, state party officials are planning on the arrival of 375 buses.
I think busing people in is going to be one of the biggest factors in getting votes and the above three candidates may do extremely well because of it. It just might the one factor that helps Thompson and Brownback get a leg up on their other second-tier competitors. But I’ve heard rumors that Brownback (perhaps Thompson too) has spent all in doing so. It’s do or die time for them.
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2. Romney backers say Rudy trying to pick up Ames votes I didn’t need to read this article to guess that a stealth campaign was underway. Giuliani, having smelled defeat, backs out of the straw poll. But his name will still be on the ballot. If he can someway have a big surprise showing then he can further demonstrate his inevitability while not competing.
What’s more, Giuliani’s campaign has also been instructing phone bankers in at least one state to contact Iowa voters this week. In an email forwarded by a non-Romney source, Giuliani’s New Jersey field director thanks volunteers for their calls this past week. “Rudy has asked us to, again, continue making phone calls to Iowa next week,” writes Amanda Gasperino.
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3. All of this has to do with the expectations game. Managing Expectations at Ames - Expectations are similar to a golfer or a bowlers handicap. The handicap set for a player is based on your previous performances. Surpass your previous showings and you have victory. In essence, if Romney doesn’t live up to the lead he has in polls it will be considered a loss. On the other hand a solid win, in this case a blow out, will be a huge boon for Romney. (Note in the article linked above it says that the largest margin of victory was only 10%)
For example, Rudy Giuliani claimed this morning that Mitt Romney ought to be able to win at least by an 8:1 margin over his closest opponent - and that he ought to garner at least 24,000 votes doing so. Romney’s campaign responded:
A Romney adviser scoffs at the gambit, calling it “hysterical.”
“This is the funniest thing I’ve ever seen,” observes the Romney source, pointing out that 24,000 votes would be “nearly four times more voters than” then-Gov. Bush won at Ames in 1999.
Bush got 7,418 votes.
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4. Romney Bets Big on Ames Poll
It seems no detail is too small, or price too high, for Mr. Romney. His campaign plunked down $25,000 for a prime spot to pitch his tent at the polling center on the campus of Iowa State University, about $10,000 more than other campaigns paid. In his tent, supporters will feast on barbecue from Hickory Park, a well-known restaurant in Ames.
That is where Mr. Romney’s organization has impressed. Mr. Romney’s Sioux County campaign chairman, Orange City council member Mick Snieder, said he’s made about 2000 phone calls in his 29,000-population county, urging Republicans to support Mr. Romney. In the past month, he says he’s made about 500 calls specifically to recruit voters in the straw poll.
The result: About 100 Romney supporters from Sioux County are boarding two buses for a 3½-hour ride to Ames on Saturday. On the buses, they will be handed Romney
campaign T-shirts to wear during the polling.
The Romney campaign won’t say how much it is spending on Ames. The campaign is paying political consulting company Capital Resources Inc. about $200,000 to coordinate logistics for the event, said people with knowledge of the campaign. And bus company Windstar Lines in Carroll, Iowa, will act as a central dispatcher for the about 130 to 150 buses the campaign has reserved to ferry supporters to the poll. Organizers at other campaigns said buses cost $900 to $3,000, depending on whether they can be hired locally.
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5. Romney Family Rallies:
It feels like a family reunion here at the pre-straw poll rally for Mitt Romney. Oh wait, that’s because it is.
Some 96 members of the Romney clan have descended upon Iowa for Saturday’s Republican straw poll.
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6. Romney upbeat on eve of straw poll:
Romney was so confident that he joked about the prospect that the Iowa caucus will be earlier than the scheduled Jan. 14 because of other states moving up their contests. “Okay, what the heck, let’s have it in September,” he said. “We’re ready.”
Romney is going all-out to lure thousands of supporters to the straw poll in Ames, renting a fleet of air-conditioned buses, buying thousands of tickets and promising free barbecue and entertainment to supporters who make the trip.
Romney’s real opponent on Saturday is an elusive one: expectations.
To do well, Romney’s margin of victory must at least match his showing in the polls, or about 27 percent, said Dennis J. Goldford, a political scientist at Drake University.
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7. County chair survey shows Romney on top - This one is not related directly to the poll, rather it’s about Iowa in general. The gist: 42 Republican county chairs respond to a survey. Of those 16 say they are dedicated to a certain candidate. Of those 16, eight of them are dedicated to Romney in particular “often citing his experience, his qualifications and his effort in Iowa.”
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8. AMES — Inside Romney’s Push This one I already covered a few days ago, but here it is again.
Mitt Romney’s campaign is calling his Ames straw poll effort “Take The Lead,” and some of the mail that is showing up in Iowa these days suggests that the campaign is sparing no expense and really, really, wants to win this thing by a large margin.
A mailer sent to us by an Iowan this week shows that the campaign has even figured out a way to reward and incentivize supervolunteers. There are three categories.
“Bring 5: — Iowans who sign up and bring five friends, relatives, neighbors.
“Bus Captains” — Iowans who agree to recruit riders to hop on the buses that will appear on Saturday morning in every Iowa county.
“Sign up Iowa” — Iowans who agree to knock on 50 doors or make 100 telephone calls.
Meet these goals, and you’ll be placed on Romney’s “Wall of Fame”.
A picture of the mailer mentioned above can be viewed here.
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9. This one really gets my goat: Should a Ron Paul Supporter take Mitt’s Free Expenses to Ames?:
Mitt Romney plans to bribe Iowans to vote for him in the key Ames Straw Poll (flier below). He’ll pay all the expenses for an Iowan, feed them and transport them to and from the event in an effort to buy
their vote.Some say if Mitt is willing to bus Iowan’s to Ames for the Straw Poll…they should take him up on his offer!
Some say Mitt Romney could pay for your $35 straw poll fee, transport you to and from the event, and buy you ‘Iowa’s Best B-B-Q.’
Some say that then, after carefully weighing their options…..they may decide to vote Ron Paul at the Ames Straw Poll!
If interested, you could call Mitt for the free package at 866.505.2008 (details on flier below).
It can’t help but have the feeling that they are stealing money from me - that my donations (and my time) are going toward a band of misfits to feign support for Romney to get to the poll then turn and back-stab him. I guess Ron Paul’s supporters are part of a rEVOLution, and they’ve decided the ends justifies the means. I personally find it completely dishonest and would buy my own ticket and transport rather than take it from a competitor. If it wins him substantial support for the poll all it will do it further delay his eventual demise. I find it ironic that Ron Paul’s supporters are also already questioning the validity of the results and are preemptively threating legal action. All we need is another “hanging chad” saga.
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10. Ames Predictions Predictions, and nothing but. Interesting to see what folks are thinking. Do you have any predictions? Leave them in the comments below.
Check back here about 7-ish (Central) for the final tally, or perhaps throughout the day for updates.
ADDITIONAL INFO:
PDF for the Official Schedule (plus more info)
PDF of the layout of the Straw Poll grounds That’s prime local for Romney.
and from the media advisory:
12:30 p.m.
Republican presidential candidates begin speaking. Each candidate will have 15 minutes on stage with approximately five minutes in between each candidate. The speaking order will be:Mitt Romney
Tom Tancredo
John Cox
Ron Paul
Mike Huckabee
Duncan Hunter
Tommy Thompson
Sam Brownback
I imagine those speeches will be on C-SPAN or CNN, or somewhere, but I don’t know for sure.
~Nate Gunderson
ADDENDUM:
The Fox News website says they’ll be covering the speeches.
~~~Thomas
