Drafting Giuliani
According to NASCAR, drafting is “when a car travels through the air it leaves a gap behind it. Another car driving in this gap doesn’t have as much air resistance pushing on its nose and can then travel faster or use less fuel to travel the same speed. This effect can be noticed at speeds as low as 70mph but the effect increases with speed.”
Rudy Giuliani is in the lead of GOP candidates among most national polls. Others are falling behind. But with a debate yet to happen and even grass roots efforts being pretty much flat line at this point, much can change in the next nine to ten months. Newsweek’s article “Rudy’s Rise” shows Rudy’s success in a recent poll. But digging deeper into the numbers, Rudy has yet to leave everyone in the dust. Although Giuliani is beating McCain by 25 points and double that for Romney, the article exposes the risk Rudy may soon face in the debates:
The NEWSWEEK Poll finds that 58 percent of registered Republicans and “Republican leaners” describe themselves as social conservatives. Only a quarter (26 percent) of Republican voters claim to know “a lot” about the pro-choice and pro-gun-control Giuliani, while a full third (34 percent) admit to knowing little or nothing about him. A large number say that knowing where he stands on those issues and his opposition to a constitutional ban on same-sex marriage will hurt his chances with them: half (50 percent) of self-identified social conservatives say the candidate’s support of Roe v. Wade would at least make them less likely to support him. Almost half (44 percent) say the same of his opposition to a ban on same-sex marriage, and nearly a third (30 percent) say his stance on gun control could lead them to support someone else.
Interestingly, this poll has a 12-point fudge factor for registered Republicans and Republican leaners, so bring your salt shaker.
So who is really drafting the lead car?
With national polls having Romney in a dismal third, why would anybody care about him? Obviously the national polls do not reflect the intentions of those cognizantly aware of the GOP race, the Democrats. The DNC has released more attack pieces on Romney than any other candidate. The Associated Press released an attack article on Romney citing his great-great grandfather was a polygamist over 110 years ago, but fails to note that Barack Obama had a bigamist father (he was married to multiple women). Never mind an anonymous effort to attack Romney in South Carolina with a six-page color flyer mailed out to a county. If the national polls are right, then these efforts are sorely misguided.
There is movement in the ranks of the GOP race that the national polls do not show. Some in the know were polled in the following: The CPAC straw poll and an L.A. Times poll of Republican Insiders. In the Conservative Political Action Conference straw poll, Romney won 21% over 17% for Giuliani. In a different L.A. Times poll, their article says:
Among Republicans, Romney had the most backing among party insiders, with 20% support, followed by Giuliani with 14%, McCain with 10% and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich of Georgia — who has said he might enter the race in the fall — with 8%. In a potentially worrisome sign for McCain, just over 1 in 10 RNC members said they would not support him if he won the party’s nomination in his second attempt.
This early in the race anything can happen. Just don’t loose sight of those in a power position.
Nathan W.
Cross posted at Redstate.com
